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mat8drb

mat8drb

United Kingdom
October 2004

AUG 31, 2005 11:50 AM

Now, I pride myself on being a hard working scientist, but when it comes to writing peer reviewed papers for journals, sometimes it is far too much hassle than it is worth. So, it comes as no shock that most scientific papers aren't quite correct.

Assuming that the new paper is itself correct, problems with experimental and statistical methods mean that there is less than a 50% chance that the results of any randomly chosen scientific paper are true.

John Ioannidis, an epidemiologist at the University of Ioannina School of Medicine in Greece, says that small sample sizes, poor study design, researcher bias, and selective reporting and other problems combine to make most research findings false. But even large, well-designed studies are not always right, meaning that scientists and the public have to be wary of reported findings.

"We should accept that most research findings will be refuted. Some will be replicated and validated. The replication process is more important than the first discovery," Ioannidis says.

In the paper, Ioannidis does not show that any particular findings are false. Instead, he shows statistically how the many obstacles to getting research findings right combine to make most published research wrong.



So, it is not the original idea that is wrong, but the method of testing a hypothesis or the subsequent analysis that is wrong, leading to many false claims based upon only a slight indication that the hypothesis is correct.

It is interesting that the author notes small sample size as a problem: in recent years, ethical concerns have ensured that any experiments involving animals operate with low "degrees of freedom"; the minimal number of animals are used. I can see this piece of research being useful to the animal rights lobby, fresh from their victory last week in closing a UK guinea pig farm

JohnFM1

JohnFM1

United Kingdom
May 2004

AUG 31, 2005 12:44 PM

There is a great deal of science which doesn't use these sort of stats etc, and so is largely immune from this problem.

And everyone knows its generally the idea that matters - not the details.

Rickets

rickets

Seattle, WA
March 2003

AUG 31, 2005 12:48 PM

That's where intelligent design has us beat. No scientific method = no erroneous results.

bean

bean

STAFF

Los Angeles, CA

AUG 31, 2005 12:50 PM

Another thing that's interesting (to me, anyway) is the way scientific findings are reported. Often, they're reported as fact without any mention of the method or funding of the study. In contrast to that, though, there was a story the other day that I heard on NPR reporting on a study that found that there were much higher than expected levels of antioxidants in coffee. They explained the methods behind the study and mentioned the funding (indirect funding from the researcher's university), and stressed that the study needed to be replicated and tested before accepting the findings as fact. Yay context!

I <3 NPR.

JohnFM1

JohnFM1

United Kingdom
May 2004

AUG 31, 2005 12:54 PM

bean said:
Another thing that's interesting (to me, anyway) is the way scientific findings are reported. Often, they're reported as fact without any mention of the method or funding of the study.



Do you mean reported in the popular press?

Peer-reviewed Journals always ask for this sort of stuff....

legionnaire

legionnaire

Belgium
November 2003

AUG 31, 2005 12:54 PM

Mass media reporting of science is typically abysmal, as bean already pointed out there's little mention of primary sources and findings are usually shown as being definitive rather than speculative, which is more common (and usually noted in primary literature.)

That being said - it's sad if this is true, since the peer reviewing process is specifically designed to root out errors caused by investigator bias, or sampling/statistical errors.

trestria

trestria

Wilson, NC
October 2004

AUG 31, 2005 01:13 PM

bean said:
Another thing that's interesting (to me, anyway) is the way scientific findings are reported. Often, they're reported as fact without any mention of the method or funding of the study. In contrast to that, though, there was a story the other day that I heard on NPR reporting on a study that found that there were much higher than expected levels of antioxidants in coffee. They explained the methods behind the study and mentioned the funding (indirect funding from the researcher's university), and stressed that the study needed to be replicated and tested before accepting the findings as fact. Yay context!

I <3 NPR.



Not the chemistry articles I've seen. I think almost all of the chemistry articles I have seen in journals indicate the method of funding at the very end of the article. Take a look at some.

thorr74

thorr74

Sylvan Lake, AB
December 2004

AUG 31, 2005 01:17 PM

Rickets said:
That's where intelligent design has us beat. No scientific method = no erroneous results.



Not to hijack this thread.....But does anyone else find it HILARIOUS whatever
that there are some poeple who will take any excuse to rag on this ID topic????

I could start a thread about kittens and some jackass would somehow get a shot at ID in there...pathetic


back to original topic...thank you

bean

bean

STAFF

Los Angeles, CA

AUG 31, 2005 01:40 PM

JohnFM1 said:

bean said:
Another thing that's interesting (to me, anyway) is the way scientific findings are reported. Often, they're reported as fact without any mention of the method or funding of the study.



Do you mean reported in the popular press?

Peer-reviewed Journals always ask for this sort of stuff....


Yeah, sorry, I thought about adding that clarification in there, but I figured the difference between "publish" and "report" was clear enough.

Idjit

Idjit

HOPEFUL

I'm lost

AUG 31, 2005 01:43 PM

Rickets said:
That's where intelligent design has us beat. No scientific method = no erroneous results.



:LOL: You fucking crack me up. biggrin

TheFuckOffKid

TheFuckOffKid

NEWSWIRE

Australia

AUG 31, 2005 01:49 PM

JohnFM1 said:

bean said:
Another thing that's interesting (to me, anyway) is the way scientific findings are reported. Often, they're reported as fact without any mention of the method or funding of the study.



Do you mean reported in the popular press?

Peer-reviewed Journals always ask for this sort of stuff....


Indeed.

TV news report: "A survey has shown that..."

And you listen further and find that a survey has indicated some kind of correlation that sounds interesting, and the tiny snippet of interview of the lead researcher indicates that they're not trying to put too strong an interpretation on their findings.

I think of most statistical/empirical research findings as somewhat contingent.

Tony_Montana

Tony_Montana

Victoria, BC
February 2004

AUG 31, 2005 01:53 PM

thorr74 said:

Rickets said:
That's where intelligent design has us beat. No scientific method = no erroneous results.



Not to hijack this thread.....But does anyone else find it HILARIOUS whatever
that there are some poeple who will take any excuse to rag on this ID topic????

I could start a thread about kittens and some jackass would somehow get a shot at ID in there...pathetic


back to original topic...thank you




huh?

tolrag

tolrag

I'm lost
April 2003

AUG 31, 2005 01:58 PM

thorr74 said:

Rickets said:
That's where intelligent design has us beat. No scientific method = no erroneous results.



Not to hijack this thread.....But does anyone else find it HILARIOUS whatever
that there are some poeple who will take any excuse to rag on this ID topic????

I could start a thread about kittens and some jackass would somehow get a shot at ID in there...pathetic


back to original topic...thank you


ID is an easy target for taking a shot at, because every one of its proponents is either gullible to a frankly hilarious extreme, or a fucking liar.

thorr74

thorr74

Sylvan Lake, AB
December 2004

AUG 31, 2005 02:00 PM

sudden_urge said:

thorr74 said:

Rickets said:
That's where intelligent design has us beat. No scientific method = no erroneous results.



Not to hijack this thread.....But does anyone else find it HILARIOUS whatever
that there are some poeple who will take any excuse to rag on this ID topic????

I could start a thread about kittens and some jackass would somehow get a shot at ID in there...pathetic


back to original topic...thank you




huh?



This thread had nothing to do w/ID, but still someone wanted to throw in an ID critizism .... bringing it up whenever possible...
but now I am contributing to the misdirection of this thread...sorry blush

GramNegative

GramNegative

I'm lost
October 2004

AUG 31, 2005 02:01 PM

thorr74 said:

Rickets said:
That's where intelligent design has us beat. No scientific method = no erroneous results.



Not to hijack this thread.....But does anyone else find it HILARIOUS whatever
that there are some poeple who will take any excuse to rag on this ID topic????

I could start a thread about kittens and some jackass would somehow get a shot at ID in there...pathetic


back to original topic...thank you


You work for the Discovery Institute or something?
It was funny, and he is not a jackass for posting it.

now, back to original topic

thorr74

thorr74

Sylvan Lake, AB
December 2004

AUG 31, 2005 02:01 PM

tolrag said:
[ ID is an easy target for taking a shot at, because every one of its proponents is either gullible to a frankly hilarious extreme, or a fucking liar.



point proven again

Idjit

Idjit

HOPEFUL

I'm lost

AUG 31, 2005 02:01 PM

thorr74 said:

sudden_urge said:

thorr74 said:

Rickets said:
That's where intelligent design has us beat. No scientific method = no erroneous results.



Not to hijack this thread.....But does anyone else find it HILARIOUS whatever
that there are some poeple who will take any excuse to rag on this ID topic????

I could start a thread about kittens and some jackass would somehow get a shot at ID in there...pathetic


back to original topic...thank you




huh?



This thread had nothing to do w/ID, but still someone wanted to throw in an ID critizism .... bringing it up whenever possible...
but now I am contributing to the misdirection of this thread...sorry blush



It was a joke, a funny joke, and especially poignant coming from a scientist. whatever

thorr74

thorr74

Sylvan Lake, AB
December 2004

AUG 31, 2005 02:04 PM

Idjiit said:

It was a joke, a funny joke, and especially poignant coming from a scientist. whatever



*shakes head as point missed as usual, apoligizes to original poster- leaves thread* (but waiting for inevitable condesending critisizm)

almostfamous

almostfamous

NEWSWIRE

United Kingdom

AUG 31, 2005 02:05 PM

... so she wrote a paper that said, this paper has a 50% chance of being bullshit?

Idjit

Idjit

HOPEFUL

I'm lost

AUG 31, 2005 02:12 PM

thorr74 said:

Idjiit said:

It was a joke, a funny joke, and especially poignant coming from a scientist. whatever



*shakes head as point missed as usual, apoligizes to original poster- leaves thread* (but waiting for inevitable condesending critisizm)



Perhaps if you were a really funny person like Rickets, you'd get why the inclusion of an ID joke in a sciency thread makes sense. You see, jokes are funny when topical insights are used in clever ways. ID is a hot topic right now, this is a science thread, and Rickets used it to his advantage. What don't you get, exactly?

If this was a thread on say... baking Apple Pies and Rickets made the joke "Boy, I but those intelligent design guys think that God designed Apples to stay firm even at high temperatures, har har." (sorry, I'm not as funny as he is) you might have a point, but as usual you're just doing a great job of making yourself look like a total fool.

aegies

aegies

Oakland, CA
June 2004

AUG 31, 2005 02:17 PM

thorr74 said:

Rickets said:
That's where intelligent design has us beat. No scientific method = no erroneous results.



Not to hijack this thread.....But does anyone else find it HILARIOUS whatever
that there are some poeple who will take any excuse to rag on this ID topic????

I could start a thread about kittens and some jackass would somehow get a shot at ID in there...pathetic


back to original topic...thank you



i don't find it off topic or hilarious. neither do you. stop getting your panties in a bunch when someone takes the time to point out that intelligent design isn't science. unless you do, your panties are going to be perpetually bunched around these parts.

thorr74

thorr74

Sylvan Lake, AB
December 2004

AUG 31, 2005 02:25 PM

Idjiit said:

Perhaps if you were a really funny person like Rickets, you'd get why the inclusion of an ID joke in a sciency thread makes sense. You see, jokes are funny when topical insights are used in clever ways. ID is a hot topic right now, this is a science thread, and Rickets used it to his advantage. What don't you get, exactly?

If this was a thread on say... baking Apple Pies and Rickets made the joke "Boy, I but those intelligent design guys think that God designed Apples to stay firm even at high temperatures, har har." (sorry, I'm not as funny as he is) you might have a point, but as usual you're just doing a great job of making yourself look like a total fool.



condesending critizism....hmmm who would have saw that coming....

I conceed, perhaps I just didn't get the joke... sorry Rickets I hope I didn't ruin your day...

thorr74

thorr74

Sylvan Lake, AB
December 2004

AUG 31, 2005 02:29 PM

aegies said:
i don't find it off topic or hilarious. neither do you. stop getting your panties in a bunch when someone takes the time to point out that intelligent design isn't science. unless you do, your panties are going to be perpetually bunched around these parts.



Actually believe it or not I don't care what people say about ID...In fact I have learnt a lot, and my original stand FOR ID has weakened...I am not ashamed to say it, I like learning new things from different sources...
I guess, me PERSONALLY just am tired of all the threads dedicated to slamming it...not debating it, just ranting about it on and on ad nauseum... puke

and a character flaw I have is voicing my opinion....lesson learned


[Edited on Aug 31, 2005 by thorr74]

Idjit

Idjit

HOPEFUL

I'm lost

AUG 31, 2005 02:33 PM

thorr74 said:

Idjiit said:

Perhaps if you were a really funny person like Rickets, you'd get why the inclusion of an ID joke in a sciency thread makes sense. You see, jokes are funny when topical insights are used in clever ways. ID is a hot topic right now, this is a science thread, and Rickets used it to his advantage. What don't you get, exactly?

If this was a thread on say... baking Apple Pies and Rickets made the joke "Boy, I but those intelligent design guys think that God designed Apples to stay firm even at high temperatures, har har." (sorry, I'm not as funny as he is) you might have a point, but as usual you're just doing a great job of making yourself look like a total fool.



condesending critizism....hmmm who would have saw that coming....



I didn't want to disappoint you. While we're at it, it's condescend. Since you haven't caught on yet, this site has a pretty low tolerance for dumbassery. Think twice about posting something inflammatory.

legionnaire

legionnaire

Belgium
November 2003

AUG 31, 2005 02:36 PM

Idjiit said:

thorr74 said:

Idjiit said:

Perhaps if you were a really funny person like Rickets, you'd get why the inclusion of an ID joke in a sciency thread makes sense. You see, jokes are funny when topical insights are used in clever ways. ID is a hot topic right now, this is a science thread, and Rickets used it to his advantage. What don't you get, exactly?

If this was a thread on say... baking Apple Pies and Rickets made the joke "Boy, I but those intelligent design guys think that God designed Apples to stay firm even at high temperatures, har har." (sorry, I'm not as funny as he is) you might have a point, but as usual you're just doing a great job of making yourself look like a total fool.



condesending critizism....hmmm who would have saw that coming....



I didn't want to disappoint you. While we're at it, it's condescend. Since you haven't caught on yet, this site has a pretty low tolerance for dumbassery. Think twice about posting something inflammatory.



While we're at it, it's actually criticism and concede, too. wink

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