Mali and Algeria

I don't know how much you guys are following this, but it looks like the Algerian operation to free the hostages went... well, about as well as can be expected. Which isn't great. 600 hostages freed, and reports indicating 30 or more killed.

It's of significant concern that the hostages were able to be taken at all. Algeria fought a really bloody civil war for quite a while, from which it learned a lot about internal security.

This all relates to Mali in that the forces which have taken over the northern half of that country are affiliated, just like the hostage-takers in Algiers, with AQIM. French forces are currently trying to help the legitimate government of Mali take back the lost territory. The Mali rebels are engaging in the usual Islamic extremist shenanigans--mutilations, stonings of couples accused of adultery, etcetera.

The shitty part is that up until a year ago, Mali and Algiers have been examples of real progress on the continent.

We (Canada) haven't been asked for support in the way of regular troop forces. The French government asked for logical support via a C17, and have asked for financial support. Although I'd imagine we have special forces there as well.

It's actually a situation that I've been following for a while now.

One plane does not an airlift make. The US has also been tapped and it appears that the US Government is going to provide such airlift capacity, and at least some limited military logistical support in Mali (think Libya, only better coordinated with French and western African ECOWAS forces).

Considering that terrorist actions have been taken against US citizens and allies in the region, I suspect that there will be an open door for counterterrorism actions as well. I would not be surprised if several drones were employed to help identify and eliminate any high level command or operatives among the Al Qaeda linked networks. Hopefully the US will not need to provide much more in terms of military support, however, I do believe that much of Africa provides the potential for just such a theater.

There appears to be a fairly organized and successful insurgency among allied Islamic extremists and terrorist groups across this region of Africa that's been going on for years. Their ability to operate beyond the reach of local governments (if not in direct support of them), whilst destabilizing other surrounding countries (like Mali) is evidence of their growing strength, and may serve as the impetus for future conflict (if it isn't resolved now). Unfortunately, if pursued, some of these groups may be able to easily dissolve into the region, presenting challenges similar to fighting such an insurgency in Afghanistan. In the interim, I hope that the US can limit any direct involvement, instead providing only limited support to any united African efforts. Only time will tell, but barring some radical changes, I have a feeling that this slow burning conflict will continue on for quite some time.

There are continuing accusations of the DRS, Algieria's intelligence service, is involved in AQIM in the same way that Pakistan's ISI is accused of being in bed with LeT.

I was sad to hear about radical Islamists destroying historical sites in Timbuktu.

So I guess Mitt Romney's concern about this that he brought up in the second presidential debate was justified after all.

So I guess the Obama Administration's concern about this and all the steps they were taking at the time were justified after all.

True, it's really an impossible situation. Considering reports, I guess that the terrorists really made things difficult for the Algerian military (booby trapping and mining the facility, even strapping explosives onto some of the hostages). It's interesting that Algeria decided to act entirely on their own, but I guess there really wasn't much time to wait around (I guess there was an attempt to flee with some of the hostages out of Algeria, which spurred the rescue effort). The Algerians may have directly caused some of the civilian deaths whilst stopping the terrorists, but in the end I guess they aren't really the ones to blame.

I just wonder if the latest incident and what's going on in Mali have shifted the balance of power enough for governments like Algeria to be a bit more flexible with countries like France and the US. According to the terrorists, they attacked because Algeria allowed France to operate in through their airspace in response to the conflict in Mali, however, given the complex nature of the attack, many are saying it had to have been planned long before France got involved. As bean said, Algeria probably didn't want to stir the pot and draw in an insurgency (they've already fought a bloody civil war against Islamic extremists), but this latest incident could be a game changer (then again, Algeria did act independently, so they may still be trying to keep themselves isolated from western and other foreign governments).

So far the Mali locals seem very supportive of the French military effort to combat the rebels despite the history of French colonialism there, with even a few Malians expressing a desire that France have an extended presence in the country. Politics is weird sometimes.