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Robotsatemyhair

Robotsatemyhair

Richmond, VA
March 2004

NOV 07, 2012 10:22 AM


Obama Wins But Fiscal Cliff Looms


Even before Obama gets to his second inaugural on Jan. 20, he must deal with the threatened "fiscal cliff." A combination of a $600 billion package automatic of tax increases and steep across-the-board spending cuts are set to take effect in January if Washington doesn't quickly reach a budget deal. Experts have warned that the economy could tip back into recession without an agreement.



And away we go!

Will they let it happen? Will they cancel it all? Or will they find a moderate solution?

CoyoteMike

CoyoteMike

Iowa City, IA
May 2006

NOV 07, 2012 10:23 AM

zoom image

Robotsatemyhair

Robotsatemyhair

Richmond, VA
March 2004

NOV 07, 2012 10:47 AM

Fiscal cliff, recession threat takes center stage on Wall Street


Now that Wall Street knows President Obama will stay in the White House, investors' attention has returned to looming crises facing the U.S. and European economies.

Major stock indexes were down more than 2% midway through the first trading session after election day.

At the top of the agenda is the "fiscal cliff," the automatic spending cuts and tax hikes looming at year's end. If Obama cannot successfully resolve the crisis with a House still controlled by Republicans, economists have warned that the "cliff" could slow growth and push the U.S. back into recession.

"We've gotten certainty on the presidency and now we move into the uncertainty of where we were before -- the fiscal cliff," said Quincy Krosby, a market strategist at Prudential Financial. "The market's not going to have much patience to wait to see when the negotiations begin in earnest and how they evolve."

The Dow Jones industrial average regained some ground but was still down 303 points, or 2.3%, to 12,943 in midday trading.

The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index was down 32 points, or 2.2%, to 1,396. The Nasdaq was down 71 points, or 2.4%, to 2,941.

Corporations reported sluggish revenues in the third quarter, signaling slowing economic growth regardless of the fiscal cliff, Krosby noted. Declining company fortunes could lead to job cuts and further drags on economic growth as consumer demand falls.

Also weighing on investors' minds: Continuing worries out of Europe. Economic data out of Germany indicate that not even the continent's most powerful economy is immune to the Eurozone slowdown, as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi noted in remarks Wednesday.

motorfirebox

motorfirebox

Pittsburgh, PA
March 2004

NOV 07, 2012 11:33 AM

I think it's entirely possible that the House will dig their heels in on any sort of compromise. Politically, the GOP benefits most if the next four years are marked by severe recession.

ChrisSick

ChrisSick

Philadelphia, PA
March 2008

NOV 07, 2012 11:36 AM

I'm seeing some signs among rightwing media of concession. Erik Erikson of Redstate emphatically declared that Obama is not a socialist and the party needs to really reassess itself.

Also, Karl Rove is apparently going to commit ritual seppuke in the Fox News Studio tonight. So there's that.*

*That which I may have just made up.

Robotsatemyhair

Robotsatemyhair

Richmond, VA
March 2004

NOV 07, 2012 11:37 AM

motorfirebox said:
I think it's entirely possible that the House will dig their heels in on any sort of compromise. Politically, the GOP benefits most if the next four years are marked by severe recession.



It's sad to think that Americans would want Americans to suffer just so they can "save" us later.

Robotsatemyhair

Robotsatemyhair

Richmond, VA
March 2004

NOV 07, 2012 11:38 AM

Obama is supposed to contact Romney in a few weeks.

cpkz

cpkz

Portland, OR
September 2006

NOV 07, 2012 12:38 PM

motorfirebox said:
I think it's entirely possible that the House will dig their heels in on any sort of compromise. Politically, the GOP benefits most if the next four years are marked by severe recession.



I understood that during his first term; but when its a completely different candidate, the whole battlefield changes...and they can't plan for that now.

bean

bean

STAFF

Los Angeles, CA

NOV 07, 2012 12:56 PM

I just heard a statement by Boehner which amounted to, "We're willing to compromise: we get lots and lots of cuts, and you can raise taxes on anyone but the wealthy."

Seriously, he said they were optimistic about tax reform, and that increased revenue (ie. raising taxes) was on the table, but that they drew the line at increasing taxes on high-income households (aka "job creators"). So the only thing you can infer from that is that he's okay with raising taxes on the middle class and the poor.

motorfirebox

motorfirebox

Pittsburgh, PA
March 2004

NOV 07, 2012 01:06 PM

Hah, well, it sounds like he technically he left big business on the taxable table. Pretty sure he just assumed everyone knew that was off-limits, though.

Priapos

priapos

San Angelo, TX
October 2005

NOV 07, 2012 02:18 PM

Who wants to play a high-stakes game of "Spin the Disaster"?

malkav11

malkav11

Saint Paul, MN
July 2003

NOV 07, 2012 03:54 PM

Robotsatemyhair said:

motorfirebox said:
I think it's entirely possible that the House will dig their heels in on any sort of compromise. Politically, the GOP benefits most if the next four years are marked by severe recession.



It's sad to think that Americans would want Americans to suffer just so they can "save" us later.



See, I really don't think it's about manufacturing a crisis that they can swoop in and "fix", at least not anymore. I think they just have an axe that by god they are going to grind, no matter who gets hurt in the process. Nobody they know is in any danger of real crisis, after all.

Robotsatemyhair

Robotsatemyhair

Richmond, VA
March 2004

NOV 07, 2012 06:14 PM

malkav11 said:

Robotsatemyhair said:

motorfirebox said:
I think it's entirely possible that the House will dig their heels in on any sort of compromise. Politically, the GOP benefits most if the next four years are marked by severe recession.



It's sad to think that Americans would want Americans to suffer just so they can "save" us later.



See, I really don't think it's about manufacturing a crisis that they can swoop in and "fix", at least not anymore. I think they just have an axe that by god they are going to grind, no matter who gets hurt in the process. Nobody they know is in any danger of real crisis, after all.



I disagree.

They know that the Democratic party won't nominate another black candidate so they won't have to worry about fucking over Obama's actions in the next four years. They're going to spend they're energy elsewhere.

I feel that we might see more moderate leanings from the Right in weeks to come regarding the Cliff. It's irresponsible to throw the country into a recession just because you can.

It's not about evil rich people rubbing their hands together and counting their money as they use the middle class for kindling in their diamond fire.

They use starving homeless kids as kindling. Duh.

JoeatSG

JoeatSG

Philadelphia, PA
April 2006

NOV 07, 2012 06:16 PM

There will be a deal, maybe small or temporary but deal none the less. The red states can't afford defense cuts called for in the fiscal cliff. Without defense jobs most reds states would head to double digit unemployment by March. That combined with the fact everyone's taxes automatically go up, so everyone in the red states have less money and fewer jobs. All to protect the the tax rates of the 1%? Good luck with that spin. The Republicans only made this crazy deal because they KNEW Mitt would win. Now they are stuck with some very nasty economic poison that will hit all those nice red states like Sandy hit Long Island.

malkav11

malkav11

Saint Paul, MN
July 2003

NOV 07, 2012 06:35 PM

Robotsatemyhair said:
I disagree.

They know that the Democratic party won't nominate another black candidate so they won't have to worry about fucking over Obama's actions in the next four years. They're going to spend they're energy elsewhere.

I feel that we might see more moderate leanings from the Right in weeks to come regarding the Cliff. It's irresponsible to throw the country into a recession just because you can.

It's not about evil rich people rubbing their hands together and counting their money as they use the middle class for kindling in their diamond fire.

They use starving homeless kids as kindling. Duh.



Which Republican party is this that's responsible and conscientious? Certainly not the 2012 one.

Priapos

priapos

San Angelo, TX
October 2005

NOV 08, 2012 05:10 AM

It looks like the Republicans expect the Democrats to cave in to their demands again, and if we keep talking about sequestration as though it means certain death they will probably get their wish. We should let the automatic budget cuts and tax increases take effect, and then offer Boehner a deal that will let him cut taxes on the poor and some of the middle class.

In the meantime, offer him a deal. It doesn't have to be a deal he will accept, either.

skeptik

skeptik

New Orleans, LA
February 2004

NOV 08, 2012 11:18 AM

Regarding Boehner's willingness to compromise:

Just remember that in the debt ceiling crisis that eventually led to the "fiscal cliff" deal, Boehner took a relatively moderate position and showed the same willingness to compromise. It was John Kyl in the Senate and Eric Cantor in the House (and the teabaggers behind them) that actually dug in their heels.

And both of them (and most of their teabaggers) remain in office.

Unless Boehner and the relatively moderate Republicans can get the fiscal extremists - including Ryan - on board with compromise, it's unlikely to be resolved in any kind of timely way.

Priapos

priapos

San Angelo, TX
October 2005

NOV 09, 2012 05:43 AM

Because the relatively moderate Republicans don't dare to agree on a compromise without the extremists? That sounds like a big part of the problem with our government to me.

Does anyone see a chance that they will view the election as a defeat for extremism?

ETA: Paul Krugman also opposes making an unfavorable deal.

Priapos

priapos

San Angelo, TX
October 2005

NOV 12, 2012 06:30 PM

Robert Reich suggests an opening offer

I hope the President starts negotiations over a “grand bargain” for deficit reduction by aiming high. After all, he won the election. And if the past four years has proven anything it’s that the White House should not begin with a compromise.
...

Why not go back sixty years when Americans earning over $1 million in today’s dollars paid 55.2 percent of it in income taxes, after taking all deductions and credits? If they were taxed at that rate now, they’d pay at least $80 billion more annually — which would reduce the budget deficit by about $1 trillion over the next decade. That’s a quarter of the $4 trillion in deficit reduction right there.


SilverSurfer

SilverSurfer

MODERATOR

Chicago, IL

NOV 30, 2012 06:02 PM

Another good Robert Reich column, related to the so-called fiscal cliff negotiations:

Wal-Mart and McDonald’s: What’s wrong with U.S. employment

What does the drama in Washington over the “fiscal cliff” have to do with strikes and work stoppages among America’s lowest-paid workers at Wal-Mart, McDonald’s, Burger King, and Domino’s Pizza?

Everything.

Jobs are slowly returning to America, but most of them pay lousy wages and low if non-existent benefits. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that 7 out of 10 growth occupations over the next decade will be low-wage — like serving customers at big-box retailers and fast-food chains. That’s why the median wage keeps dropping, especially for the 80 percent of the workforce that’s paid by the hour.

It’s also part of the reason why the percent of Americans living below the poverty line has been increasing even as the economy has started to recover — from 12.3 percent in 2006 to 15 percent in 2011. More than 46 million Americans now live below the poverty line.

Many of them have jobs. The problem is that these jobs just don’t pay enough to lift their families out of poverty.

So, encouraged by the economic recovery and perhaps also by the election returns, low-wage workers have started to organize.

SPOILERS! (Click to view)
Yesterday in New York, hundreds of workers at dozens of fast-food chain stores went on strike, demanding a raise to $15-an-hour from their current pay of $8 to $10 an hour (the median hourly wage for food service and prep workers in New York is $8.90 an hour).

Last week, Wal-Mart workers staged demonstrations and walkouts at thousands of Wal-Mart stores, also demanding better pay. The average Wal-Mart employee earns $8.81 an hour. A third of Wal-Mart’s employees work less than 28 hours per week and don’t qualify for benefits.

These workers are not teenagers. Most have to support their families. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the median age of fast-food workers is over 28; and women, who comprise two-thirds of the industry, are over 32. The median age of big-box retail workers is over 30.

Organizing makes economic sense.

Unlike industrial jobs, these can’t be outsourced abroad. Nor are they likely to be replaced by automated machinery and computers. The service these workers provide is personal and direct: Someone has to be on hand to help customers and dole out the burgers.

And any wage gains they receive aren’t likely to be passed on to consumers in higher prices because big-box retailers and fast-food chains have to compete intensely for consumers. They have no choice but to keep their prices low.

That means wage gains are likely to come out of profits – which, in turn, would affect the return to shareholders and the total compensation of top executives.

That wouldn’t be such a bad thing.

According to a recent report by the National Employment Law Project, most low-wage workers are employed by large corporations that have been enjoying healthy profits. Three-quarters of these employers (the fifty biggest employers of low-wage workers) are raking in higher revenues now than they did before the recession.

McDonald’s — bellwether for the fast-food industry — posted strong results during the recession by attracting cash-strapped customers, and its sales have continued to rise.

Its CEO, Jim Skinner, got $8.8 million last year. In addition to annual bonuses, McDonald’s also gives its executives a long-term bonus once every three years; Skinner received an $8.3 million long-term bonus in 2009 and is due for another this year. The value of Skinner’s other perks — including personal use of the company aircraft, physical exams and security — rose 19% to $752,000.

Yum!Brands, which operates and licenses Taco Bell, KFC and Pizza Hut, has also done wonderfully well. Its CEO, David Novak, received $29.67 million in total compensation last year, placing him at number 23 on Forbes’ list of highest-paid chief executives.

Wal-Mart – the trendsetter for big-box retailers – is also doing well. And it pays its executives handsomely. The total compensation for Wal-Mart’s CEO, Michael Duke, was $18.7 million last year – putting him at number 82 on Forbes’ list.

The wealth of the Walton family – which still owns the lion’s share of Wal-Mart stock — now exceeds the wealth of the bottom 40 percent of American families combined, according to an analysis by the Economic Policy Institute.

Last week, Wal-Mart announced that the next Wal-Mart dividend will be issued on December 27 instead of January 2, after the Bush tax cut for dividends expires — thereby saving the Wal-Mart family as much as $180 million. (According to the online weekly “Too Much,” this $180 million would be enough to give 72,000 Wal-Mart workers now making $8 an hour a 20-percent annual pay hike. That hike would still leave those workers under the poverty line for a family of three.)

America is becoming more unequal by the day. So wouldn’t it be sensible to encourage unionization at fast-food and big-box retailers?

Yes, but here’s the problem.

The unemployment rate among people with just a high school degree – which describes most (but not all) fast-food and big-box retail workers – is still in the stratosphere. The Bureau of Labor Statistics puts it at 12.2 percent, and that’s conservative estimate. It was 7.7 percent at the start of 2008.

High unemployment makes it much harder to organize a union because workers are even more fearful than usual of losing their jobs. Eight dollars an hour is better than no dollars an hour. And employers at big-box and fast-food chains have not been reluctant to give the boot to employees associated with attempts to organize for higher wages.

Meanwhile, only half of the people who lose their jobs qualify for unemployment insurance these days. Retail workers in big-boxes and fast-food chains rarely qualify because they hadn’t been on the job long enough or were there only part-time. This makes the risk of job loss even greater.

Which brings us back to what’s happening in Washington.

Washington’s obsession with deficit reduction makes it all the more likely these workers will face continuing high unemployment – even higher if the nation succumbs to deficit hysteria. That’s because cutting government spending reduces overall demand, which hits low-wage workers hardest. They and their families are the biggest casualties of austerity economics.

And if the spending cuts Washington is contemplating fall on low-wage workers whose families are under the poverty line – reducing not only the availability of unemployment insurance but also food stamps, housing assistance, infant and child nutrition, child health care and Medicaid – it will be even worse. (It’s worth recalling, in this regard, that 62 percent of the cuts in the Republican budget engineered by Paul Ryan fell on America’s poor.)

By contrast, low levels of unemployment invite wage gains and make it easier to organize unions. The last time America’s low-wage workers got a real raise (apart from the last hike in the minimum wage) was in the late 1990s, when unemployment dropped to 4 percent nationally – compelling employers to raise wages in order to recruit and retain them, and prompting a round of labor organizing.

That’s one reason why job growth must be the nation’s number one priority. Not deficit reduction.

Yet neither side in the current “fiscal cliff” negotiations is talking about America’s low-wage workers. They’re invisible in official Washington.

Not only are they unorganized for the purpose of getting a larger share of the profits at Wal-Mart, McDonalds, and other giant firms, they’re also unorganized for the purpose of being heard in our nation’s capital. There’s no national association of low-wage workers. They don’t contribute much to political campaigns. They have no Super PAC. They don’t have Washington lobbyists.

But if this nation is to reverse the scourge of widening inequality, Washington needs to start paying attention to them. And the rest of us should do everything we can to pressure Washington and big-box retailers and fast-food chains to raise their pay.

FellOnEarth

FellOnEarth

Temecula, CA
April 2006

DEC 01, 2012 07:28 AM

I absolutely agree that the companies that rely on service employees need pay livable wages, some of the details of Reich's article needs some updating, however. McDonald's just posted it's first losses in almost a decade (over 2% globally). This makes the executive's pay and perks all the more dubious given the trend and their sweetheart exemption deal from PPACA until 2014.

McDonald's is far from alone in this distinction, and it should be noted that these recent losses are largely due to increased competition to sell even cheaper foods, and this race to the bottom could only have been possible with labor market saturated with low-wage earners (who increasingly have only been able to afford the cheaper menu items). Of course, this pattern transcends the fast food industry as many other corporations have richly profited during the recession while middle-class jobs and wages have suffered.

Indeed, addressing the wage issue should be a necessary part of the discussion if the US intends to maintain long-term growth. As far as I'm concerned, the only trickle-down I've seen is related to the direction wages have gone while the profits have gone entirely to the top...

CoyoteMike

CoyoteMike

Iowa City, IA
May 2006

DEC 04, 2012 04:23 PM

You know, the more I think about this, the more I see this as an opportunity, if lawmakers are willing to work quickly in the first weeks of the new year, to reset a broken system. All the pols are doing right now is talking about different ways to patch things, which will, I'm afraid, just break again in a year or two.

Bush's policies fucked things up. His tax breaks are unsustainable. Why not let them expire and create tax reform that makes some fucking sense? The same with some of our social safety nets: there are problems, so why not use this opportunity to hit the reset button and reform the programs to make sense?

Yes, there would be some short-term pain. Yes, the first order would have to be to shore up the social programs for veterans, elderly, and the poor. And, yes, there might even be some across-the-board higher taxes. Fine. We done fucked up, and it's time to be adults and pay the price for our actions. Particularly if paying that price makes things better in the long run.

I'm not going to claim to be an expert in any of this. This is just where my thoughts are headed.

FellOnEarth

FellOnEarth

Temecula, CA
April 2006

DEC 05, 2012 12:40 AM

Coyotemike said:
You know, the more I think about this, the more I see this as an opportunity, if lawmakers are willing to work quickly in the first weeks of the new year, to reset a broken system. All the pols are doing right now is talking about different ways to patch things, which will, I'm afraid, just break again in a year or two.

Bush's policies fucked things up. His tax breaks are unsustainable. Why not let them expire and create tax reform that makes some fucking sense? The same with some of our social safety nets: there are problems, so why not use this opportunity to hit the reset button and reform the programs to make sense?

Yes, there would be some short-term pain. Yes, the first order would have to be to shore up the social programs for veterans, elderly, and the poor. And, yes, there might even be some across-the-board higher taxes. Fine. We done fucked up, and it's time to be adults and pay the price for our actions. Particularly if paying that price makes things better in the long run.

I'm not going to claim to be an expert in any of this. This is just where my thoughts are headed.

I think it's reasonable to assume that there will not be very much consensus between the two parties for some time to come. The important thing to note, however, is which direction things will break. The Republicans may be passing up the best opportunity to help craft some real, meaningful legislation, but it just isn't in the nature of their ideology to compromise as Democrats have been want to do. Democrats by their nature consist of an inclusive and diverse body of interests, which Republicans have historically been able to take advantage of, however Republicans are also much more dog-eat-dog and apt to punish their own for being compromising.

The difference is that momentum and popular support is on the side of the Democratic party and will likely continue to shift in that direction over the longterm. Depending on how the next body of Congress works together could determine the future of the Republican party. If they are unable to adapt and pivot along with changing attitudes of Americans, they could lose big time in the next and future elections. Their economic policies have consistently been failures, particularly for the underclass, and they aren't fooling enough people anymore to make a difference. interestingly, they're calling for compromise from the President and Democrats, as if a balanced approach means negotiating from a very nonspecific middle-out were the only viable option, while most Americans agree with the hard-nosed, top-down approach Obama has finally adopted.

No one wants the economy to fail, but if the austerity-laden measures of the fiscal cliff come to fruition, we're likely to experience a very uncomfortable meltdown that is gripping much of Europe. In the very least, the worst lain economic plans engineered by the GOP will finally be exposed for the con game its always ever been. Unfortunately, we're probably much more equipped to weather further deficit spending then the sudden and dramatic system shock we'll be facing, particularly at a time when the economy has been slowly recovering,

Cash

Cash

USA
OLD SKOOL

DEC 05, 2012 03:29 PM

More from Fiscal Cliff:

FreakPirate

FreakPirate

Canada
November 2002

DEC 06, 2012 10:21 PM

If, for some unimaginable reason, you were still taking the Republican Party seriously, you should fucking quit.

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