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RudieCantFail

RudieCantFail

I'm lost
January 2006

MAY 27, 2011 08:53 AM

Italian seismologists charged with manslaughter for not preventing the deaths of 300 people in the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake.


The group of seven, including six seismologists and a government official, reportedly didn't alert the public ahead of time of the risk of the L'Aquila earthquake, which occurred on April 6 of that year, killing around 300 people, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

But most scientists would agree it's not their fault they couldn't predict the wrath of Mother Nature.

"We're not able to predict earthquakes very well at all," John Vidale, a Washington State seismologist and professor at the University of Washington, told LiveScience.

Even though advances have been made, the day scientists are able to forecast earthquakes is still "far away," Dimitar Ouzounov, a professor of earth sciences at Chapman University in California, said this month regarding the prediction of the March 11 earthquake in Japan.



What's Italian for facepalm?

RandomNerd

RandomNerd

I'm lost
January 2005

MAY 27, 2011 08:59 AM

Okay, I'm a dum-dum... what's the logical fallacy at work, here?

FellOnEarth

FellOnEarth

Temecula, CA
April 2006

MAY 27, 2011 09:30 AM

RudieCantFail said:
Italian seismologists charged with manslaughter for not preventing the deaths of 300 people in the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake.


The group of seven, including six seismologists and a government official, reportedly didn't alert the public ahead of time of the risk of the L'Aquila earthquake, which occurred on April 6 of that year, killing around 300 people, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

But most scientists would agree it's not their fault they couldn't predict the wrath of Mother Nature.

"We're not able to predict earthquakes very well at all," John Vidale, a Washington State seismologist and professor at the University of Washington, told LiveScience.

Even though advances have been made, the day scientists are able to forecast earthquakes is still "far away," Dimitar Ouzounov, a professor of earth sciences at Chapman University in California, said this month regarding the prediction of the March 11 earthquake in Japan.



What's Italian for facepalm?


Just to be clear here, while you can't predict the moment an earthquake will occur, you can project the foreseeable likelihood of one occurring of a given magnitude given the foresight of a fault's location and it's historical activity along with the likely damage given the underlying geology within a populated area. That being said, it's ridiculous to convict a seismologist for not knowing that one was about to happen. If anyone should be charged, it should be the policy makers who haven't recognized the potential threats of earthquakes and in failing to implement building safety standards.

ohash

ohash

Columbus, OH
May 2007

MAY 27, 2011 10:08 AM

I am a major nature-nerd and have watched a ton of NatGeo and Discovery shows about earthquakes and seismic activity. From what I understand, the most seismologists can do right now is get a basic idea of when a quake MIGHT happen and where it MIGHT hit the hardest. Because of the way the crust shifts, you can guess when one of the plates might "snap-back", but maybe the pressure will hold for months or even years longer than you expect it to. Or maybe it looks like there is no activity, but it's ready to snap at any moment.

I think it is totally ridiculous to try to convict a scientist because he couldn't accurate predict a force of nature. It we could all predict nature, there would be no more human lives taken by natural disasters at all.

BDeyeD

BDeyeD

Toronto, ON
January 2007

MAY 27, 2011 07:45 PM

Does that mean the southern US is going to start dragging meteorologists behind pickup trucks for not saving tornado victims?

IDGAS

IDGAS

Portland, ME
March 2004

MAY 27, 2011 08:37 PM

BDeyeD said:
Does that mean the southern US is going to start dragging meteorologists behind pickup trucks for not saving tornado victims?


And if they do make a correct prediction then we burn them as witches!!!!

semiretiredpunk

semiretiredpunk

USA
March 2007

MAY 28, 2011 01:44 AM

IDGAS said:

BDeyeD said:
Does that mean the southern US is going to start dragging meteorologists behind pickup trucks for not saving tornado victims?


And if they do make a correct prediction then we burn them as witches!!!!



Don't give them any ideas. wink

A saner response would be to approve grants to fund seismologists studying better ways to predict earthquakes.

RandomNerd

RandomNerd

I'm lost
January 2005

MAY 29, 2011 02:46 PM

FellOnEarth said:

RudieCantFail said:
Italian seismologists charged with manslaughter for not preventing the deaths of 300 people in the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake.


The group of seven, including six seismologists and a government official, reportedly didn't alert the public ahead of time of the risk of the L'Aquila earthquake, which occurred on April 6 of that year, killing around 300 people, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

But most scientists would agree it's not their fault they couldn't predict the wrath of Mother Nature.

"We're not able to predict earthquakes very well at all," John Vidale, a Washington State seismologist and professor at the University of Washington, told LiveScience.

Even though advances have been made, the day scientists are able to forecast earthquakes is still "far away," Dimitar Ouzounov, a professor of earth sciences at Chapman University in California, said this month regarding the prediction of the March 11 earthquake in Japan.



What's Italian for facepalm?


Just to be clear here, while you can't predict the moment an earthquake will occur, you can project the foreseeable likelihood of one occurring of a given magnitude given the foresight of a fault's location and it's historical activity along with the likely damage given the underlying geology within a populated area. That being said, it's ridiculous to convict a seismologist for not knowing that one was about to happen. If anyone should be charged, it should be the policy makers who haven't recognized the potential threats of earthquakes and in failing to implement building safety standards.



+1

MetaTag

MetaTag

United Kingdom
September 2002

JUN 09, 2011 05:00 PM

Scapegoats! It is God's fault, but you can's sue her.

Perhaps the Pope should have warned people though....

skeptik

skeptik

New Orleans, LA
February 2004

OCT 22, 2012 10:01 PM

Update: All seven defendants convicted on manslaughter charges.

Italian judge Marco Billi sentenced six seismologists, volcanologists and geophysicists and one public safety official to 6 years each, two more years than prosecutors had requested. The sentences will not take effect until appeals are exhausted, and many expect the verdict to be overturned, but it is by no means certain.

FellOnEarth

FellOnEarth

Temecula, CA
April 2006

OCT 22, 2012 10:05 PM

surreal This is like something out of a Fellini movie.

JorgeCartman

JorgeCartman

USA
February 2008

OCT 22, 2012 10:18 PM

skeptik said:
Update: All seven defendants convicted on manslaughter charges.

Italian judge Marco Billi sentenced six seismologists, volcanologists and geophysicists and one public safety official to 6 years each, two more years than prosecutors had requested. The sentences will not take effect until appeals are exhausted, and many expect the verdict to be overturned, but it is by no means certain.



To Representative Todd Akin, Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and other U.S. lawmakers who think like him: Your move. Can you top this? bok

skeptik

skeptik

New Orleans, LA
February 2004

OCT 22, 2012 11:57 PM

Don't give them any ideas.

thefreak

thefreak

NEWSWIRE

Gardner, MA

OCT 23, 2012 09:01 PM

FellOnEarth said:
surreal This is like something out of a Fellini movie.


If I may jack the thread for a moment, I keep meaning to see some of Fellini's work, and an old co-worker of mine (who I credit with getting me into Kurosawa, stuff available through Criterion, etc.) gave me a list of his movies I had to watch in order. Damned if I remember, though.

To be on topic, this is simply fucked up. I'm with BDeyeD on this one.

semiretiredpunk

semiretiredpunk

USA
March 2007

OCT 24, 2012 12:41 AM

thefreak said:

FellOnEarth said:
surreal This is like something out of a Fellini movie.


If I may jack the thread for a moment, I keep meaning to see some of Fellini's work, and an old co-worker of mine (who I credit with getting me into Kurosawa, stuff available through Criterion, etc.) gave me a list of his movies I had to watch in order. Damned if I remember, though.

To be on topic, this is simply fucked up. I'm with BDeyeD on this one.



I just watched Satyricon. That movie was a trip and a half. If you watch 8 1/2, watch Allen's Stardust Memories also if you can.

Getting back to the thread, I hope they get out of this nonsense on appeals.

skeptik

skeptik

New Orleans, LA
February 2004

OCT 25, 2012 03:06 AM

Further update:
Italy's top government scientists resign in protest. More resignations likely.

If this continues, Italy may soon have no public safety scientists left at all.

Otoki

Otoki

SUICIDEGIRL

Minnesota, USA

OCT 25, 2012 08:41 AM

skeptik said:
Further update:
Italy's top government scientists resign in protest. More resignations likely.

If this continues, Italy may soon have no public safety scientists left at all.


Good move on their part. Seriously, what the fuck is the government thinking?

talamia

talamia

South Africa
July 2008

OCT 25, 2012 10:18 AM

surrealsurrealsurrealsurrealsurreal

SirBrettly

SirBrettly

Ely, IA
January 2012

OCT 25, 2012 10:57 AM

skeptik said:
Further update:
Italy's top government scientists resign in protest. More resignations likely.

If this continues, Italy may soon have no public safety scientists left at all.



Exactly! Who wants to be a scientists when you're going to get thrown in jail for doing exactly what you were trained for?