Generic 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination Thread

Rather than having 72 different threads on the various GOPers running, not running and kinda-sorta-maybe running, let's just have a catch-all thread on the horserace.

So. As of now, we have the following:

Definitely Running:
Tim Pawlenty
Newt Gingrich
Rick (frothy mixture of lube and fecal matter that is sometimes the byproduct of anal sex) Santorum
Herman Cain
Mittens Romney
Ron Paul (RON PAUL!)
Gary Johnson

Definitely Not Running:
Mitch Daniels
Mike Huckabee
Donald Trump (lulz!)
Bobby Jindal
Haley Barbour
Chris Christie
Jeb Bush
David Patraeus

MAAAAAYYYYYBE Running
Sarah Palin
John Bolton
Michelle Bachmann (fingers crossed!!!!)
John Huntsman

OK, kids. Have at it. THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE.

Fixed

I want to see a GOP debate featuring John Bolton, Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Santorum. The structure housing the event might actually implode due to the staggering magnitude of ignorance present in one place.

Just saw this little tid-bit, it looks like Palin is moving to Scottsdale Arizona. Though she still may be running for office in 2012, it probably will not be for the presidency. She may be trying to establish residency there in a bid for Senator.

I just thought of the irony if Gabrielle Giffords decides to run...

Sigh of relief. In my mind, he's the craziest one with the charisma to actually be a credible candidate. I can't help but sort of like the guy, and he and I disagree only almost every single important issue. And not just slight disagreements, he's totally fucked in the head on, from what I've seen, most things. But he's funny and charming. That goes a long way.

I don't know how the hell Mittens can hope to win with the healthcare curse on him. Newt won't win. Ron Paul won't win. Gary Johnson is a lot like Ron Paul, but may be able to look less like a crackpot. Cain is a crackpot, but I haven't seen him speak so I don't know how well he sells it. Santorum won't win.

Republicans' strongest choice, in my view, is Pawlenty. And he's still pretty crazy. But he could be worse.

And if she does, she's a mortal lock to win. You can imagine I'm thrilled at the prospect.

Against McCain? Or is she hoping for his retirement?

Apparently Jon Kyl is retiring and his seat will be up for grabs in 2012.

Heh, here's Mittens' official campaign website (it's a bit outdated and could use some new material).

I don't believe Chris Christie isn't running. That fat prick spends more time on the road doing appearances, than he does in Trenton lately. He's been very careful to try and distance himself from the Tea Party, but here in NJ they have a huge boner for him.

Yeah, I'd put Chris Christie in the "maybe" category. I'd say his odds of running are higher than Palin's.

I'd guess he's angling for a VP slot. If you look at the electoral map, voters are turning against Republicans in a lot of the states that they have to win, like Ohio. Christie could in theory pull NJ, and gives a credible reason to think he can squeeze just enough votes out of Pennsylvania to put them over the top in the state. That would be a huge boost to the Republican electoral efforts, a boost they need if they can't swing Ohio.

Even though I don't trust him as far as I can throw his fat ass, Christie has stated several times he has not interest in running for Prez in 2012. He still has way too much shit to fucki with in NJ.

You mean the seat that Gabby Giffords might potentially run for? I know that race is only a slim possibility for GG, but what a showdown: the woman who recovered from a gunshot wound to the head vs the woman who put a gunsight on her.

As if a race involving Palin wouldn't already be enough of a gong show.

I doubt very much Christie wants to risk damaging his brand by a) leaving his job in NJ half-finished & b) hitching his wagon to one of these albatrosses of a candidate. My guess is he, like a lot of serious GOP players, don't think they have a realistic shot at unseating the President-- particularly since the bin Laden raid-- and are waiting until 2016 to see what's up. I think too many people are looking at Christie as a binary position-- if he's not serious about running, why is he taking such great pains to be on the national stage? I think he's just building up his brand, and plans to be a fierce advocate for whomever the eventual nominee is, but to keep enough distance so their lose can't hurt his future chances.

I think the only way the more serious people-- Christie, for one-- or the more crazy people-- such as Palin-- get serious about climbing into this fray is if, come November or early '12, there's no serious Republican frontrunner, despite the economy remaining sluggish and the President's numbers appearing vulnerable. If it looks like the wind is blowing the Democrats out and the Republicans in, but no one's locked down the nomination, I'd expect to see a frenzy of people who've spent the last year swearing they weren't interested suddenly reaching for that ring... which of course would probably make the GOP a lot more serious, and push to divorce the "real GOP" from the Tea Party, which might be enough to get Christie somewhere.

If he doesn't run in '12, which I can see for the reasons you mentioned, I'd be shocked if he isn't the front-runner in '16.

Oh, John Huntsman. We know you're a serious person, so I'm almost sorry to do this, but ...

I can see, however, the positive of going for Jon Kyl's seat, if the whole "Junior/Senior Senator" thing means anything. Whoever gets Kyl's seat is going to be the Junior Senator for about 5 minutes. I honestly don't expect McCain to run again (which would be in 2016, I think).

She'd only be a senator for 5 minutes anyway. She's never finished a term for anything, has she?

Ok, lets look at some things:

1: Alaska is sick of her, and she needs to distance herself from, well, everything she ever did in office.

2: She knows she can't win the primary, let alone the general election. The last time I looked, her overall positive polling was somewhere around 12%

3: Obama jumped from first-term Senator to President; she might think she can do the same thing

Now that "T-Paw's" hat is in the ring, he's going to have to explain to America why it was a good idea to pardon a sex offender's record back in 2008.

The stomach churning story goes something like this:

Unfortunately i don't think Ohio is a shoe in for the democratic vote in the Presidential election. Obama is going to have to spend some time here and swing people to the Dem's side. Jobs are still down, the economy here is still "blah" at best and rather than blame local and state government, people here are still looking at the federal government.

Believe me, Kasich has approval ratings that are any where between 30% and 35%, his staunch support of Senate Bill 5 (the bill that repeals collective bargaining for all public workers), he is attempting to privatize -everything- including prisons and our turnpike which not a lot of people support. He keeps giving corporations help, but continuously turns his back on the common person especially in the terms of education. But i still wouldn't put it past the population of Ohio to vote red in 2012.

While politically that might be somewhat tricky, that situation should not be a problem at all. Honestly, if I were Pawlenty and knowing what he knew at the time, I'd probably do the same thing. I don't agree with statutory rape laws as they tend to be enforced, and in that situation a pardon seems reasonable.

I get what you're saying, but you also have to remember the heirarchical nature of the GOP nomination process. The Republicans, since at least the days of Ford, have consistently nominated the guy whose "turn" it is, for lack of a better turn. Since Nixon resigned, the nominees have been Ford, Reagan, Reagan, Bush I, Bush I, Dole, Bush II, Bush II, McCain. Of those, Reagan's first nomination is the only one who really threw people for a loop: every other one has been a candidate with strong bonafides among the party kingmakers and, with the exception of Ford and Bush II, a prior run at the White House.

So as I see it, Christie has a good shot at 2016, but he needs something to seperate himself from the pack of other probable candidates like Huntsman and Daniels. A prior run that establishes himself as a "serious" candidate in the VP slot at once elevates him and allows him to escape blame in the inevitable wreckage of whomever gets the duty of taking on Obama.

Yes, but we're talking about Pawlenty being Pawlenty, he's supposed to be some sort of draconian crime crusader and having a moment of weakness may not play well to some conservatives. I'd be surprised if one of his opponents didn't try to make political hay out of this.