If Barack is nominated, I will not vote for him and I'm a Democrat.

According to CNN, Clinton's supporters have a 10 pt lead in not supporting the other candidate. Basically, if Obama wins only 10% won't for Clinton, and if Clinton wins 23% won't vote for Obama.

I suppose you could call that the racist/inexperience margin, but what I've been wondering lately and what nobody has addressed (that I'm aware of) is what does "not voting for" entail? I think that there is an assumption that these individuals will cross-over and vote for McCain, but my instinct tells me that rather than voting for McCain they'll simply stay home and not vote.

Let's say I'm half correct. Five percent of those individuals stay home, and the other five cross-over to vote for McCain. I still don't see Clinton being able to convince the party that she's electable and that Obama isn't. Keep in mind, it's not who will win in a bigger landslide. The ONLY reason the DNC could possibly nominate Clinton over Obama is if that they feel Obama CANNOT win and that she CAN, not that she can win by a bigger margin. The CNN polls do not indicate that Obama cannot win.

Keep in mind. I'm very wary of polls, and y'all know this. I just thought it was an interesting point to bring up that everyone seems to be overlooking.

Thoughts? Comments? Facts/Figures/Polls that could flesh this discussion out a bit (I know I'm out on a limb here). Want to call me a name?

I have written an article for Thursday about her angry feminist supporters. Some I believe will not support Obama and will not vote. Others are actually forming groups to keep Obama from being elected over McCain. Classy.

But keep in mind that these polls are horseshit for one very specific reason: The only way for Hillary to win is to overturn the popular vote via superdelegates at the convention. So, Hillary has to make the case that Obama will not win in the GE. Her supporters listen, understand and amazingly, when polled they say they won't support Obama.

1+1 = 2

But, I do think her number is a little higher than Obama's number because of the angry middled aged woman factor. More on that Thurs...

I love how everybody loses sight of politics in these white/black, woman/man "debates". In those videos, we saw people saying that their families and their values are Democratic going back as far as they can remember, but they'll vote for a Republican if the Democratic nominee is black. Yeah sweet guys. And the other hand is equally ridiculous, I will not vote for the Democratic because you guys didn't nominate the woman. I wish the margins I cited earlier were non-existent or 2-3 percent.

Where the hell did we lose perspective? Yeah, don't answer that, I'm well aware. My own grandfather is a fucking racist. Someone I used to be able to talk to about politics for hours on end when Clinton was the presumptive nominee is now someone who I can't talk to about politics because a black man might very well be the next president of the US (he used to watch Hardball every night religiously, now he'll leave the room if I turn it on).

Out of curiosity, what do you think is a bigger issue race or sex? The funny thing is that it seems, if you're correct, that Clinton is exploiting these differences to her advantage while Obama isn't. That says a lot about him as a candidate as far as I'm concerned. I don't want someone who will exploit blatantly ignorant beliefs for her benefit. That's what got us into this fucking war and I'll have none of it.

I just saw the CNN piece. Unbelievable. I am curious to read more on Thursday.

Hell hath no fury...?

It's pretty evident that Clinton is exploiting these issues far more than Obama.

I think sex is the bigger issue, myself. I believe the big difference is that for black Americans, this is totally unexpected. They didn't seem to think it possible. While, feminists seem to have expected it, and believe Hillary is the rightful heir to the throne.

As far as discrimination, I think more people would vote for a black man than a woman. Most of my opinion on that one is based on polls. If I was to guess, I would have said it was dead even.

I'd say she was exploiting them, but has largely backed off of any direct attacks or critiques of Obama since the election was virtually called for Barack. It seems now that she's just playing out the end of the race by using bland catch phrases like "it's not over" instead of any assaults on Obama or his positions. She's trying to recoup some cash, and I think perhaps put herself in position for the veep slot. I think she's also been clearly advised to lay off so that she doesn't go out as an angry loser (which could be exploited in the General election) but as a defeated well-wisher in the converntion.

As for the OP: I'm not sure I'd buy any of these polls. I'm sure that Hillary is going to be firmly in Obama's camp and will be ENcouraging her supporters to vote for him, not DIScouraging them at all.

I don't know if sex is a bigger issue than race, but I do think that trying to quantitatively say whether one is "Bigger" or "smaller" misses the point that the issues are very different.

At least 75% of the people who say that are either lying to the pollster or lying to themselves. It's total fantasy. They'll get to the general, think "holy shit war with Iran and an end to Roe v. Wade!? And its gonna be close. Fuck, I guess ill vote for the black dude."

Plus, Obama has 6 months to win those people over and convince folks that McCain is a lunatic.

In other words, I wouldn't worry about the sky falling just yet.

Yeah, I was thinking more of those that are beyond influence (i.e. those who won't vote for Obama even though Clinton tells them to do so, and vice-versa).

Yeah, I think it misses the point as well. I was just responding to FTR's comment. He seems to believe (or at least in contrast to my post) that it was the bigger issue.

Well, that's not what she's doing with her supportive bloggers. They are going full press with the sexism issue and aiming the cannons at Barack. Hillary is not backing off behind the scenes, I actually think it's getting a bit uglier than it ever has been.

Well, I'm not. That was kinda my point. IMO, this "cross-over" isn't significant enough to give Clinton the nomination. If I haven't been clear, that was my point.

And I think you're right, remember when McCain spoke right after Obama on ST (I believe)? McCain will not stand up to the onslaught.

Also: interestingly enough. My aunt was polled today and she told them she voted for Clinton even though she voted for Obama, and I'd do the same.

Remember when Bush ran against McCain and used the illegitimate black baby card to clinch the nomination? If the Republican Party can stay unified after that, then surely the Democratic Party can keep their eyes on the prize in spite of the prevailinng candidate doing absolutely nothing wrong.

Okay, I will say what many have said or are thinking. There is a large contingent of angry women out there who believe that Hillary's pursuit and "eventual" claim on the white house will in some way validate their own frustrations and beliefs. They are determined to make this point and I think many, many are prepared to throw their toys out of the pram and refuse to vote if Hillary does not win the nomination.

I would like to believe what Subrosa says, but these crazy women scare me to death.

(I will now take my lumps for demonizing the women who hold these beliefs)

Why?

Sexist!

Cause polls are fucking a waste of space (and we're total trailer trash--I'm not kidding...you may know nothing about me, but I'm two steps aways from six months in a county jail). I told her to do so. That's what happens when you listen to assholes like me....shut up and quit your crying. You asshole, I'll beat your ass. You're so nice, and you're so smart. You're such a good friend I have to break your heart.

You've been drinking again, haven't you?

I'd rather vote for the right candidate, and lose in the GE, than submit to Hillary Clinton.

okay, so Obama has a problem with white working class?

what's Hillary's problem with the educated?

Democrats have not won the white working class vote since 1964.

So......

Why, uh, yes sir! You see, what we have here is a wedge "gap", and what we need to do is fill it. What we need are some damn good issues. Real ones that the people understand, something they can get behind! If we can split the working-class vote, why then sir, we can do anything!


Consequently Dr Strangelove came out in 1964...

Seriously though, Democratic tactics don't seem to work like Republican ones. They have an entirely different strategy that is disadvantaged from the very beginning. As a platform, the Democratic Party is supposed to appeal to the marginalized segments of society, it gives the minority strength in numbers by combining diverse ideals and needs into one voice. In contrast, the Republican Party provides a conservative and safe alternative to people who fear minorities, preferring that they remain marginalized instead of *gasp* having a voice in national politics. Because Democrats borrow from such diversity for their strength, it is easy for the Republicans to point to one "interest" or another, demonising the party for being at odds with "average" American values. The glory of it all for the Republicans is that they can motivate their base without having to actually tend to them (reserving that for their own special elite minority, the wealthy upper-class).

There in lies the key to winning for the Democratic Party. If Democrats can successfully capitalize on the Republican political follies of the last couple presidential terms, there may be hope. By focusing on corruption, incompetence, cronyism, fiscal irresponsibility, pandering to corporate interests, war profiteering, etc. while showing how it effects every American (not enough "show me" going on in my opinion) then I think they'll have the wedge they need to carve some of the working class off from the Neo-Con Republican elites. I think once lower-class and struggling middle-class Republicans realize they've been used by the party, they may reconsider consistently voting their "moral values" in favor of improving overall quality of life.

Still though, if they are actually going to turn to the party of diversity, then it's going to take an enormous amount of work and time to convince them to sacrifice their old values in favor of new ones. But is it even possible? Not likely, but its still worth the outreach effort. At the very least, they'll abandon hope in the political process, perhaps becoming separatist libertarians or members of some fundamentalist religious sect...

ADDED: I seem to have forgotten some seriously huge issues dominating the current political realm, the obvious one is of course the War (which is being soft pitched the media lately), and the Economy. Let's not forget who wanted us all to become members of an ownership society. Hell, he might as well have been Country Wide Credit's spokesperson... President Bush. He might as well have said, "Don't worry if you think you can afford a house or not, just do it because it's American"... Looks like we can blame Bush for all our woes after all.

That's pretty much what happens when you mix music lyrics with CE posts.

Okay, I am equally scared by crazy men.

It doesn't look like this year will be the year that the glass ceiling in the white house is broken. I'm sure that a lot of voters are very disappointed about this. I see it in my daughter, who is 11 years old. She is not as interested in the elections anymore.

If Hillary believed that speeches mattered, she has the chance to leave quite a legacy if she wanted too. Hopefully, she'll move through the stages of grief to acceptance, and then people like my daughter will get fired up about the election process again.

The reason for this is that the race is not over. Usually candidates that are behind have a higher margin of supporters that wont support the other guy or in this case gal also. In 2000 a lot of McCain supporters said they wouldn't vote for Bush and in the end most of them did. So this isn't any thing new or too much to worry about since most of Hillary supporters will end up voting for Obama in the end while a smaller % might vote for McCain or third party.

I heard this caller on NPR today say that Obama had better choose a woman as a running mate, or else she won't vote for him. Classy. I take it this is the first election she's voting in since 1984.