The Surge Is Seriously Over

I was getting in my car to get home from the clinic when I saw one of the clinic's guards running toward me…"Doc. Leave now and try to get home as fast as you can…it's getting really dangerous" he said. I was so surprised and I asked him "what's wrong? What happened?" he said" It has gone really bad in Sadir City, it has really gone out of control… and it's spreading everywhere and it's spreading pretty fast…there are fierce confrontations between AlMahdy army and Badir brigade" I thanked him and stepped on it…On my way home I paid attention to the streets and I noticed that there are huge number of police, army and US Humvees roaming the street pretty fast and one can easily know that they are really tensioned…At that time I knew he wasn't kidding…as I reached my neighborhood, there was nothing wrong in it so I though it might be a small confrontation and the dispute might get settled soon…but I was so wrong…I had no electricity to watch news so I had lunch and took a nap.

At the noon I met one of my neighbors and I asked him about it (he works near Sadir City) and he told me that it was something really scary…he told me "Out of a sudden we saw tens of Pickup trucks with armed men wearing plain clothes…they started shooting randomly and asked us to go back…they said that if we don't get back we might get killed…but where could we go? It's closed, everywhere…there was no road we can escape through…but thanks to some mechanics who opened one of the closed alleys and people managed to escape".
Muqtada announced civil disobedience…and his army is back in action…their demands are to stop killing and arresting AlMahdy army members because they are not in action and the army is frozen, and the hidden demand as I think is giving him the control over Basrah which is the chicken that gives golden eggs…it has been a long time of dispute between him and Badir Brigade.

There are so many neighborhoods that are closed now and curfew is announced in them…like Hai `Oor , AlSaidia, AlGihad, AlMashtal, Abu-Dsheer and of course Sadir City…as one of my friends told me that Mahdy Army members have knocked on every door in his neighborhood and told the residents not to go out of their homes or go to work because they will put themselves in troubles and they will be considered resistant to and against AlMahdi Army!!

Another friend who lives in Hai `Oor told me that AlMahdi Army have taken control over the police and army checkpoints and they are using their tanks and armored vehicles!!
AlMaliki in Basrah leading the battle against AlMahdi Army announced from his position that anyone who will not attend his work will be considered with and loyal to AlMahdi Army (How silly) and he called for back up from Karbalaa.

While Muqtada ordered his followers to distribute copies of Quran with olive branches to every police or army checkpoint they meet!!! What a controversy with the civil disobedience! But that was what he said in public and god knows what his real orders were.
I had some errands to do in the afternoon so I was driving my car and I don't know why the streets' conditions reminded me of Samaraa explosions of the two Askari shrines…the streets are empty and gloomy…caution is in the air…and one can easily feel there's something wrong…it was so creepy, I got back home as soon as I could.

I'm so sad that these things happened; I knew it was coming but I hoped that it will not or it will at least be delayed.

Only god knows what will happen next…I'm sure there are so many things coming on the way…
And we have AlMaliki saying that who will not go to work will be considered loyal to AlMahdi army…what could the civilians do? Go to their work and get killed by AlMahdi army…or put themselves in big troubles and might be killed if they don't go to work? It's a real mess.

Actually, as I'm writing this post now, I can hear the sounds of the bullets while the jet fighters and helicopters are flying over my house ...I'm expecting a curfew in all Baghdad soon.
Is it the beginning of the era of Shiite-Shiite conflicts? Does this prove that it's not about sect or religion? Does this prove that it's all about interests and benefits?
I'll update this post when anything happens.

DannyDMc said:
He said that the US's policy has been to pay off the different factions; such a policy, of course, was going to come back and get us.

OhSoOrdinary said:
Raise your hand if you saw this coming.


*raises hand*

KUNGFOO said:
I've harbored a bad feeling all winter that violence would flare up again as temperatures increased.

Without naming them, McCain said both Democratic candidates "are arguing for a course that would eventually draw us into a wider and more difficult war that would entail far greater dangers and sacrifices than we have suffered to date."

To hear the Bush administration tell it, the current flare-up in Iraq is a sign of the success of the surge. In theory at least there's a certain logic to this argument. What administration officials claim is that the surge has allowed the al Maliki government to consolidate its power sufficiently that it can take on Sadr's militia, the outlaw but until recenlty quiescent Mahdi Army.

Unfortunately, and not surprisingly, that does not seem to be what's happening.

The clearest analysis I've read is Fred Kaplan's short piece in Slate, which explains that this is not so much the Iraqi 'government' standing down an outlaw 'militia' as a face off between two militias, one of which happens to control the government. Labels aside, this seems to be al Maliki's attempt to break the Mahdi Army, possibly because Iraq is soon to hold regional elections and Maliki's supporters fear the Sadrists will do too well in the southern port city of Basra.

Fred doesn't say this, but I wonder myself if this isn't also an effort of Maliki (now allied with what used to be SCIRI) to crush the Sadrists while he still has the power of the US military behind him. Most accounts I've seen suggest that Sadr actually has more popular support than Maliki and his supporters, at least among the Shia population. It must not be lost on Maliki and his supporters that a Democrat may succeed President Bush and that that new president may be much less likely to prop up his government with American money and military might. So perhaps best to crush opponents now, with the help of the US military, in advance of that less certain future.

As an aside, President Bush is saying that Iran is, in the words of the Times, "arming, training and financing the militias fighting against the Iraqi forces." Perhaps that's true. But it's hard not to note that the Badr Organization (formerly the Badr Corps), which Maliki has allied himself with, is the outfit that was actually created in Iran under the tutelage and financing of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. So this at least seems like a rather partial take on what's occurring.

In any case, whatever it is and whoever is behind it, the crackdown does not appear to be going well. The Times has a muted run-down of where things stand. The government forces do not seem to be making much headway in Basra and protests and violence has broken out in a number of Iraqi cities. Baghdad itself is now under a curfew until Sunday. A more breathless piece in the Times of London says that Maliki's "operation to crush militia strongholds in Basra [has] stalled, members of his own security forces defected and district after district of his own capital fell to Shia militia gunmen."

Finally, this piece in tomorrow's Post suggests that while this effort may have begun with the Iraqi forces in the lead, US forces are quickly being drawn in to the thick of the fighting while the Iraqi government troops are in at least some cases receding into the background.

From the Post ...

Everything out there suggests that is another engagement between the handful of factions and warlords now controlling Iraq and a possible heat up of the incipient civil war that's been on the back burner for the last several months. And we're quickly getting drawn into the thick of the fighting. Because the Iraqi government forces who seem to have started this for their own reasons and, according to US government officials, without warning to the US, aren't up to the fight and now need the US military to bail them out.

One US official tells the Post that many in the US government believe this whole gambit was Maliki firing "the first salvo in upcoming elections," which probably sums up all we need to know about the state of Iraqi democracy and political reconciliation.

FearTheReaper said:
What a fucking disaster.

[Bush] backed the Iraqi Government's decision to "respond forcefully" to the spiralling violence by "criminal elements" and Shia extremists in Basra. "It was a very positive moment in the development of a sovereign nation that is willing to take on elements that believe they are beyond the law," the President said.

Subrosa said:
So Bush is all this shit is awesome!

Just one problem with that. Well, actually there are several, but one glaring untruth. The American forces, not the Iraqi army, appear to be heading the assault.

So, to sum up, it is "a very positive momemnt" in the development of a "sovereign" nation when the country you're occupying gets involved in your civil war so you don't have to.

KUNGFOO said:

Zombie Saddam Hussein could rise from the grave and the White House would still put a positive spin on it.

MrMat said:
So everyone realizes that this means the surge is seriously not over?

Revitalization of the Narhwan Brick Factory Complex has led to an explosion of employment.

Army Lt. Col. Mark Sullivan, commander of 1st Battalion, 10th Field Artillery, said the boom resulted from a deal between the Iraqi minister of oil and officials who represent the 167 businesses operating in the complex. Sullivan said the deal allocated enough heavy fuel oil needed to fire up the kilns to bake bricks for the complex to boost production.

"I merely facilitated and connected the owners with the Ministry of Oil," said the native of Huntsville, Ala. "This was an Iraqi problem in need of an Iraqi solution, and they did it."

Six years ago, the complex was at full operating capacity, employing 25,000 Iraqis and producing nearly 8 million bricks per day.

"In 2002, the brick factory owners were here; we weren't," Sullivan said. "The Iraqis best understand the potential at the NBFC, and we are just helping them reach that potential."

Sullivan said the factory is crucial to reducing unemployment in the region. In Iraqi culture, the eldest male in the family is responsible to provide for his family; the NBFC offers that opportunity to provide.

"When you help one family leader in Narhwan, you are helping 10, because their families are so large," he said. "We saw a need for employment, and the Iraqis fulfilled it. By having this factory employ the populace, it makes our mission safer."

FORWARD OPERATING BASE KALSU, Iraq, March 17, 2008 - Chicken farming in Iraq is moving toward pre-war levels, as coalition forces work with farmers to overcome challenges.

Dialogue has begun on how to increase production with the owners of seven chicken houses in the region where the 3rd Infantry Division's 3rd Battalion, 7th Infantry Regiment, 4th Brigade Combat Team, operates.

The community of Abu Lukah, one of the first areas where soldiers discovered chicken houses, has four chicken houses, three of which are functioning. The first visit by the unit was at the end of January, during which the owner, Abdul Sataar, had just begun a new cycle. Recently the unit revisited Chicken House No. 1 to check on the status of operations. It had been about 35 days since the arrival of the first batch of chicks, and in about 10 days the chickens would be ready for sale.

Of the initial 7,500 chicks, only 210 died during this cycle, a 2.8 percent loss for Abdul Sataar. He will sell the chickens to the highest bidder from the Baghdad, Karbala or Hilla markets.

"This is an absolute success story," said Capt. David Stewart, commander of Headquarters and Headquarters Company, 3-7th Infantry Regiment. "Abdul conducts his business without coalition assistance and is able to maintain profitability."

Recently, four other chicken houses were discovered in the Abu Jasim area. Two had about 2,000 chickens and were able to produce seven crates filled with 350 eggs each. The farm is operating at about 50 percent of capacity due to limited electricity and fuel to run the generators. Profit from the eggs is being used to buy fuel and to keep the farm running, Stewart said.

The other two chicken houses face the same challenges, Stewart added. They have 24,000 white chickens and 18,000 red chickens, and are able to produce 77 crates of eggs daily.

Because limited electricity affects their capacity, the farmers are unable to sell chickens and to produce feed to sell at the market, Stewart said. The short-term solution is to replace the generators. The famers now have three generators, two of which need repairs.

The long-term solution, the captain said, is to get off the generators and use industrial power. Efforts are going to be focused on fixing the power to greatly impact the community, Stewart added.

Dr_Balls said:

GOD DAMN YOU GLOBAL WARMING CONSPIRACISTS!!!

Colinism said:

If Zombie Saddam Hussein rose from the grave it would validate my entire existance and make me not crazy for having a zombie preparedness plan.

Trevor said:
Yeah, it's getting all sorts of ugly around here. Let me put it this way: The unit in Sadir city is getting rolled up so bad right now that they had to pull all of their guys back from other places, and now my unit has to replace those guys that left.

I'm just glad I ended up in a neighborhood where the local militia that the Army is paying off hasn't turned on us. Well, not yet anyways... we've still got a couple more building projects running.

-T