Young Americans are more likely than the general public to favor a government-run universal health care insurance system, an open-door policy on immigration and the legalization of gay marriage, according to a New York Times/CBS News/MTV poll. The poll also found that they are more likely to say the war in Iraq is heading to a successful conclusion.

The poll offers a snapshot of a group whose energy and idealism have always been as alluring to politicians as its scattered focus and shifting interests have been frustrating. It found that substantially more Americans ages 17 to 29 than four years ago are paying attention to the presidential race. But they appeared to be really familiar with only two of the candidates, Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, both Democrats.
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They have continued a long-term drift away from the Republican Party.
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More than half of Americans ages 17 to 29 54 percent say they intend to vote for a Democrat for president in 2008. They share with the public at large a negative view of President Bush, who has a 28 percent approval rating with this group, and of the Republican Party. They hold a markedly more positive view of Democrats than they do of Republicans.

Energy and idealism are wonderful things, arent they? Its important to note however that this was a poll conducted in part by MTV. So respondents could have thought they were asking about Dances From The Hood, not whether Democrats were good. Im sure it happens all the time.

Still, I know that you crazy kids in the 18-29 range are going to say. Youre gonna be all like Yo! Da Young Onez alwayez be reppin the Demz since back in the day. Recognize. Well, thats true, uh homeslices. The young have tended to favor Democrats over the past 50 years. But to pre-empt any of you from posting that idiotic Churchill quote, the preference for Democrats among the youth hasnt always been so strong.

Among this age group, Mr. Bushs job approval rating after the attacks of Sept. 11 was more than 80 percent. Over the course of the next three years, it drifted downward leading into the presidential election of 2004, when 4 of 10 young Americans said they approved how Mr. Bush was handling his job.
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Over the last half century, the youth vote has more often than not gone with the Democratic candidate for president, though with some notable exceptions. In 1984, Ronald Reagan won his second term as president by capturing 59 percent of the youth vote, according to exit polls, and the first President George Bush won in 1988 with 52 percent of that vote. This age group, however, has supported Democratic presidential candidates in every election since.

The percentage of young voters who identified themselves as Republican grew steadily during the Reagan administration, and reached a high of 37 percent in 1989. That number has declined ever since, and is now at 25 percent.

While this sort of issue polling must be encouraging for Democrats, its real utility in a non-election year is sure to be limited. On the other hand, Im sure theyre causing the already-jittery folks on the right side of the aisle some pause, if for no other reason than it seems like the youth voters may be learning from their past mistakes.

[T]he survey also found that this generation of Americans is not cynical: 77 percent said they thought the votes of their generation would have a great bearing on who became the next president.

By any measure, the poll suggests that young Americans are anything but apathetic about the presidential election. Fifty-eight percent said they were paying attention to the campaign. By contrast, at this point in the 2004 presidential campaign, 35 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds said they were paying a lot or some attention to the campaign.

In reading the source article, the above was the statistic that jumped out at me the most. I can only assume that the evolving presence of the internet and the near ubiquity of political commentary (even on titty websites!) that takes place on it* has at least some part to play in such a seismic shift in the numbers of young folks paying attention. Or it could just be people really really looking forward to getting W out of office. Regardless, increased participation amongst youth voters (and lets be frank, it cant get much worse) can only be a good thing for democracy, even if its a bad thing for Republicans.

*In other words, Subrosa is totally taking credit for this. All of it.

emotedcreations

Germany

July 2006

JUN 27, 2007 09:05 PM

More like libertarians gaining weight...

jermhawk

Tidioute, PA

December 2004

JUN 27, 2007 09:09 PM

emotedcreations said:
More like libertarians gaining weight...

agreed!

ardour

Ottawa, ON

March 2006

JUN 27, 2007 09:14 PM

I'm still not convinced. I can only really remember the last two federal elections and just how disapointing the voter turn out for youths were. I mean, last time should have been motivation enough...

In my country I've not been happy with my choices for Prime Minister, but I still go to vote, even if it's just for a write in candidate. If everyone my age did, the political parties would look at those stats and try and cater more to my ideas. The conservative party wouldn't even be able to exisit. So it's not just about voting for who you want to win. I encourage anyone my age to vote, no matter who!

gogogone

I'm lost

May 2004

JUN 27, 2007 09:22 PM

Thanks, Subrosa! Great article as always.

When interpreting the stats, though, eveyone should bear in mind it was conducted on only 600+ people aged 17-29, so the margin of error is +/- 4 points. When we compare it to older surveys in which the margi of error is not reported, welack the ability to determine if any change has really occured. (I know this sounds absurd, but I work in market research and know how these numbers get twisted out of politics or statistical ignorance).

However, I hope the findings are accurate and my age group has continued to move to the left, but we don't have all the statstical facts to come to conclusions about parameters from the NYT article you quoted. So let's not place any bets just yet.

attn_ho

Brooklyn, NY

February 2004

JUN 27, 2007 09:43 PM

now all we need is a thread titled Republicans Gaining Ground and we'll have a political Milwaulkee Threesome!

Admiral_Pants

Austin, TX

May 2004

JUN 27, 2007 09:59 PM

attn_ho said:
now all we need is a thread titled Republicans Gaining Ground and we'll have a political Milwaulkee Threesome!

Of course, Silliness will boast "Free-Soil Gaining Ground", "Bull Moose Gaining Ground", and maybe even "Know-Nothings Gaining Ground".