Oscar Picks: Or, Crown Your Phil Collins Cover!
So before I get to my Oscar picks, I have a confession to make. And this is not something I would typically tell somebody, but I figure I can share this with you fine folk and not be judged.
Yesterday at work, I was listening to the radio, as I'm wont to do, and the wacky DJ guy says, in his wacky DJ voice "Coming up NEYXT we've got Bloc Party, THE SMASHING PUMPKINS~!, but FIRRRST, Disturbed's cover of "Land of Confusion," STICK AROUND~!~!~!"
And I'm thinking... Dear God, Disturbed has covered Phil Collins. This couldn't possibly be as fantastically horrible as it sounds. The single worst pseudo-metal band covering the single worst bald British 80's pop star. Sweet Fistfucking Christ, I have to hear this.
So I listened to it, and it was what I thought it was: It was Disturbed covering "Land of Confusion" by Phil Collins.
And y'know what? It was FUCKING AWESOME. It was what I thought it was, but it was so much more. It was a fierce, blistering version of an awful song that made me want to pump my fist up in the fucking air like it was 1997 for four solid minutes. I would compare it to something like, say, Hannibal, a Kit-Kat, or a bipolar girl: You know it's not very good for you, but it's so utterly enjoyable that you don't even care, and you throw yourself into it headfirst knowing that you may full well regret it later, but you're going to goddamn enjoy it while you can.
I have even gone so far as to download the song. I will not buy the album, because I assume that the rest of it is your typical Disturbed album (i.e. total and utter shit), but I proudly display the single on my iTunes.
Anyways, now that that's out of the way, here's my Oscar picks for this year:
BEST PICTURE:
The Departed
Little Miss Sunshine
Babel
Letters from Iwo Jima
The Queen
The Queen is a vehicle for Helen Mirren. Single-actor vehicles do not win the Best Picture Oscar. Little Miss Sunshine was cute, but comedies rarely win this category (I belive the last one was Annie Hall, 30 years ago... good Christ, I can't believe that movie's 30 years old). Letters from Iwo Jima seemed like the front-runner a few months ago, but it's paltry $9 million box office (good for a foreign-language film, bad for a Best Picture nominee) is going to hamper it -- plus, the buzz it had in December has all but dried up. While it's technically a very well-made film, it doesn't live up to its potential -- a WWII story told from the point of view of the Japanese is an interesting concept, but the movie ultimately doesn't show us anything we haven't seen before.
That leaves two contenders -- Babel and The Departed. The former has been universally praised by critics and simultaneously hated by an awful lot of the filmgoing public. That won't make a difference, and it has the Golden Globe win behind it. On the other hand, The Departed was both a critical and box-office grand slam, with over $120 million in receipts (Scorcese's highest-grossing film ever). You'd be hard-pressed to find anybody who saw it who wouldn't say "That was one of the best movies of the year." Therein lies the problem, though -- while it's pretty much agreed upon that The Departed was ONE of the best movies of the year, will enough people think it was THE best movie of the year to get the Oscar? It might, if not for the movie itself, then for the fact that it's clearly a return to 70's-style form for a master of cinema who's been dicked over by the Academy like he's Susan Fucking Lucci at the Emmys. Is it Scorcese's best movie ever? Absolutely not (that title would go to Goodfellas... or Mean Streets... or Raging Bull... or Taxi Driver). But given the crop of nominees, I think it's good enough to secure the top Oscar of the year.
WINNER: The Departed
BEST DIRECTOR:
Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Martin Scorcese, The Departed
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel
Eastwood and Greengrass are immediate write-offs -- Eastwood, because he's won this twice already (the second time coming a mere two years ago, in fact); and Greengrass, because in the history of the Oscars, the number of times a director has won this award with his/her film not being nominated for Best Picture is exactly zero (though multiple critics awards will give him some semblance of a chance). Frears is another automatic also-ran, because as mentioned earlier, his film belongs to Helen Mirren -- her Oscar will be his reward.
Again, that leaves Babel vs. The Departed. And y'know what? Logic says that Scorcese will get fucked again, but I'm not buying it this year. He didn't win for Gangs of New York because, though it was a labor of love, it was a highly flawed film. He didn't win for The Aviator because, though it was pretty good, it lacked that Scorcese touch we've come to expect (i.e. it was rated PG-13 and wasn't really very violent and didn't involve criminals and/or the mafia as protagonists). And, again, The Departed is not his best work as a director. But it's goddamn good enough to earn him the award he's deserved five times before.
WINNER: Martin Scorcese, The Departed
BEST ACTOR:
Ryan Gosling, Half-Nelson
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Forrest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Not Leo -- he was better in The Departed, and the movie itself as mediocre at best. Not Gosling -- he's a phenomenal young actor, and he'll win this someday down the line, but this is more of a "Best Breakthrough Performance" at the MTV Awards than an Oscar Winning Performance. Not Smith -- he's Will Fucking Smith, and he'll follow up this with a movie wherein he plays a wise-cracking cop/detective/spaceman/general-lawman-who-spouts-things-like-"DAYUM!"-and-"Aw HELLLLL naw!"-thus-setting-civil-rights-back-approximately-eighty-years. Congratulations, Will Smith -- you have effectively caused Rosa Parks to roll over in her fucking grave. The thing about Will Smith is that he can play two characters, and he's only ever played two characters -- Muhammad Ali (which, for the record, was a fantastic performance), and The Fresh Prince. Think about Independence Day -- This is what happens if The Fresh Prince is a military fighter pilot. Think about Wild Wild West -- This is what happens if The Fresh Prince is a sherrif in the old west. Think about Men In Black -- This is what happens if The Fresh Prince tries to do The X-Files. Think about Enemy of the State -- This is what happens if The Fresh Prince is framed for some government conspiracy involving a corrupt Gene Hackman. The point is, every role the guy takes on, he just turns into a vehicle for his goofy Fresh Prince character. He's a one-trick pony. This award will never, ever, ever be his.
Peter O'Toole? An outside chance, mostly for sympathy, because he's like 90 years old, been nominated 8 times before, and all he's got to show for it is a pity "Lifetime Achievement" award. But that's not going to trump Forrest Whitaker, who's coming off the most critically-acclaimed year of his life (in addition to Scotland, he put in a supporting turn on The Shield that, if it doesn't win him a shelf full of awards, will be a huge fucking injustice). Add to that the fact that he's won pretty much every critics award up to this point, and this is the second-easiest Oscar race to call.
WINNER: Forrest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
BEST ACTRESS:
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Four Other Chicks Who Aren't Going To Win
A cop-out? Maybe. But no matter how entertaining Meryl Streep was in The Devil Wears Prada, no matter how surprisingly versatile Penelope Cruz was in Volver, no matter how deliciously deceptive Judi Dench was in Notes on a Scandal, and no matter how heartbreakingly vulnerable Kate Winslet was in Little Children, the fact remains that all four of them are up against fucking Helen Mirren for The Queen. This is officially the easiest Oscar call in the history of the Oscars.
WINNER: Helen Mirren, The Queen
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Message to Blanchett: Despite being one of the most versatile actresses of your generation (as well as drop-dead gorgeous), you already have this award. Where's your next Elizabeth so you can nail the Best Actress category?
Message to Breslin: You're adorable, but you're not Tatum O'Neal, and you're damn sure no Anna Paquin.
Message to Kikuchi and Barraza: Who are you?
Fuck me. An American Idol reject is about to win a fucking Academy Award.
WINNER: *sigh* Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Marky Mark, The Departed
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Djimon Hounsou, welcome to KateWinslettland -- You shall be nominated for an Oscar for every role you play, but you will never, ever win, even if you deserve it (not for this, though -- you deserved it ten years ago for Amistad).
Marky Mark, of all the amazing performances in The Departed (all of which could arguably be considered supporting roles), how did YOU end up with this nomination? You maybe had five minutes of screen time more than Alec Baldwin. ALEC BALDWIN~! You may be the only acting nominee from The Departed, but you're damn sure not the only deserving one. Plus, Scorcese's Oscar is your reward.
Alan Arkin and Jackie Earle Haley -- in any other year, this would be all about you two. Arkin, one of the only bright spots in the dreadfully mediocre Little Miss Sunshine; and Haley, one of the very few people who can make a child molester both sympathetic AND likeable -- that takes fucking chops, Mr. Haley. Still, none of this changes the fact that even though everybody in Hollywood hates Eddie Murphy because he's a fucking ungrateful prick and hasn't made a good movie since Boomerang (and hasn't made a GREAT movie since Harlem Nights), everybody still wants to give him an Oscar for his turn as a broken-down has-been in Dreamgirls.
WINNER: Velvet Jones
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Little Miss Sunshine
Babel
The Queen
Letters From Iwo Jima
Pan's Labyrinth
Traditionally, the movie that I think was the best picture of the year wins one of the screenwriting awards (see also: Traffic, Pulp Fiction, Fargo, L.A. Confidential, Sideways, etc.). In years wherein this is not the case, the screenwriting awards typically go to the movies that the Academy wants to honor, but don't really fit in as winners anywhere else.
So, let's break down the nominees and see what films will win in other, lesser categories (not that an art director is any less important than, say, a screenwriter, but that's the way the Academy presents it to us, so if you don't like me calling them lesser, blame the fucking Academy).
Letters from Iwo Jima and Babel are going to butt heads in pretty much every technical category, from art direction to sound editing and pretty much everything in between. And, as has been said several times, The Queen isn't going to win anything except Best Actress for Mirren, and it'll still go home one of the biggest winners because she's fucking Helen Mirren and she's old and the greatest actress older than Julianne Moore.
That leaves us, again, with two: Pan's Labyrinth, a film which manages to be simultaneously fantastical, spiritual, moving, emotional, and really fucking cool; and Little Miss Sunshine, a wacky little road comedy starring the guy who used to host Talk Soup. Logic will not prevail here.
WINNER: Little Miss Sunshine
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
The Departed
Notes on a Scandal
Little Children
Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazhakstan
Children of Men
Is there any chance in hell that Borat wins this? Fuck, I'd love to see that. And since Cohen didn't get an acting nod (which he seriously deserved), this could be his reward.
Still, I think it comes down to The Departed or Children of Men. However, since the former is already primed to win the top two awards of the night, it's likely that this award will go to Children of Men, a movie which everybody loved and inexplicably ended up with only one major nod (in this category). On the other hand, though, these two could split the vote and Little Children or Notes on a Scandal could pull an upset. Then again, THOSE two could split each other, and if Departed and Children split too, I suppose Borat could actually win this fucking award. Fuck, this is probably the hardest category to call this year.
Okay, I'm taking the safe route and saying that, of Departed and Children, the latter is the safer bet, and the same is true of Little Children and Notes. So, it's down to Children of Men or Notes on a Scandal. This is a total crapshoot.
WINNER: Children of Men
OTHER RANDOM AWARDS:
As I said before, I think Babel and Letters from Iwo Jima are going to take most of the technical awards.
Here's an interesting note: The three nominees for Best Makeup are Pan's Labyrinth, which will win; Apocalypto, which was directed by a dude who hates Jews in a town that's run by Jews; and Click. Yes, Click. Apparently, it took a lot of makeup to make Adam Sandler look goofy, Kate Beckinsale look hot, and Christopher Walken look like a crazy old man. How the fuck did Click get an Oscar nomination for Best Makeup?
Question: If An Inconvenient Truth receives the most overall votes for Best Documentary Feature, but Jesus Camp wins Florida, will Al Gore still get an Oscar, or will he get fucked again? Obviously, An Inconveneitn Truth will win this one, if not because it manages to make Al Gore giving a PowerPoint presentation for 90 minutes INTERESTING, but because it contains the single best line in a movie this year: "Hello, I'm Al Gore, and I used to be the next President of the United States."
Best Foreign Language Film? I'm surprised neither Volver nor Letters from Iwo Jima got nods here. I'm not sure what the rules for what qualifies as a "foreign language film" are, but given the nominees, Pan's Labyrinth is a shoe-in.
Best Animated Feature: Apparently, everybody forgot that A Scanner Darkly was, in fact, a cartoon. So yeah, here's one more for Pixar with Cars. I didn't see it, but when was the last time a Pixar movie was nominated for this award and didn't win it? Oh, that's right, never.
Best Original Song: Y'know, they really need to have an award for "Best Non-Original" song, as in best use of a song that was not written expressly for this particular film, because if they had one, Lynyrd Skynyrd would have won a fucking Oscar last year for the final scene in The Devil's Rejects, wherein the Firefly clan is blown to fucking smithereens by the largest consortium of state troopers ever assembled on film over the golden tones of "Freebird." Or maybe that award should go to the director or music executive, in which case ROB ZOMBIE~! would have a fucking Academy Award. Either way, that would be much more interesting than three songs from Dreamgirls. And, again, this category fucks over several great songs simply because they were original pop songs and not songs from a fucking musical. I like musicals as much as the next guy (actually, I probably like musicals MORE than the next GUY), but is some generic Beyonce tune really more worthy than the best Bond song since "Nobody Does it Better?" Not in the book of Princess Used. Chris Cornell needs an Oscar.
So anyways. Come back a week from Sunday, and you can tell me how far off my predictions were.
So before I get to my Oscar picks, I have a confession to make. And this is not something I would typically tell somebody, but I figure I can share this with you fine folk and not be judged.
Yesterday at work, I was listening to the radio, as I'm wont to do, and the wacky DJ guy says, in his wacky DJ voice "Coming up NEYXT we've got Bloc Party, THE SMASHING PUMPKINS~!, but FIRRRST, Disturbed's cover of "Land of Confusion," STICK AROUND~!~!~!"
And I'm thinking... Dear God, Disturbed has covered Phil Collins. This couldn't possibly be as fantastically horrible as it sounds. The single worst pseudo-metal band covering the single worst bald British 80's pop star. Sweet Fistfucking Christ, I have to hear this.
So I listened to it, and it was what I thought it was: It was Disturbed covering "Land of Confusion" by Phil Collins.
And y'know what? It was FUCKING AWESOME. It was what I thought it was, but it was so much more. It was a fierce, blistering version of an awful song that made me want to pump my fist up in the fucking air like it was 1997 for four solid minutes. I would compare it to something like, say, Hannibal, a Kit-Kat, or a bipolar girl: You know it's not very good for you, but it's so utterly enjoyable that you don't even care, and you throw yourself into it headfirst knowing that you may full well regret it later, but you're going to goddamn enjoy it while you can.
I have even gone so far as to download the song. I will not buy the album, because I assume that the rest of it is your typical Disturbed album (i.e. total and utter shit), but I proudly display the single on my iTunes.
Anyways, now that that's out of the way, here's my Oscar picks for this year:
BEST PICTURE:
The Departed
Little Miss Sunshine
Babel
Letters from Iwo Jima
The Queen
The Queen is a vehicle for Helen Mirren. Single-actor vehicles do not win the Best Picture Oscar. Little Miss Sunshine was cute, but comedies rarely win this category (I belive the last one was Annie Hall, 30 years ago... good Christ, I can't believe that movie's 30 years old). Letters from Iwo Jima seemed like the front-runner a few months ago, but it's paltry $9 million box office (good for a foreign-language film, bad for a Best Picture nominee) is going to hamper it -- plus, the buzz it had in December has all but dried up. While it's technically a very well-made film, it doesn't live up to its potential -- a WWII story told from the point of view of the Japanese is an interesting concept, but the movie ultimately doesn't show us anything we haven't seen before.
That leaves two contenders -- Babel and The Departed. The former has been universally praised by critics and simultaneously hated by an awful lot of the filmgoing public. That won't make a difference, and it has the Golden Globe win behind it. On the other hand, The Departed was both a critical and box-office grand slam, with over $120 million in receipts (Scorcese's highest-grossing film ever). You'd be hard-pressed to find anybody who saw it who wouldn't say "That was one of the best movies of the year." Therein lies the problem, though -- while it's pretty much agreed upon that The Departed was ONE of the best movies of the year, will enough people think it was THE best movie of the year to get the Oscar? It might, if not for the movie itself, then for the fact that it's clearly a return to 70's-style form for a master of cinema who's been dicked over by the Academy like he's Susan Fucking Lucci at the Emmys. Is it Scorcese's best movie ever? Absolutely not (that title would go to Goodfellas... or Mean Streets... or Raging Bull... or Taxi Driver). But given the crop of nominees, I think it's good enough to secure the top Oscar of the year.
WINNER: The Departed
BEST DIRECTOR:
Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Martin Scorcese, The Departed
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel
Eastwood and Greengrass are immediate write-offs -- Eastwood, because he's won this twice already (the second time coming a mere two years ago, in fact); and Greengrass, because in the history of the Oscars, the number of times a director has won this award with his/her film not being nominated for Best Picture is exactly zero (though multiple critics awards will give him some semblance of a chance). Frears is another automatic also-ran, because as mentioned earlier, his film belongs to Helen Mirren -- her Oscar will be his reward.
Again, that leaves Babel vs. The Departed. And y'know what? Logic says that Scorcese will get fucked again, but I'm not buying it this year. He didn't win for Gangs of New York because, though it was a labor of love, it was a highly flawed film. He didn't win for The Aviator because, though it was pretty good, it lacked that Scorcese touch we've come to expect (i.e. it was rated PG-13 and wasn't really very violent and didn't involve criminals and/or the mafia as protagonists). And, again, The Departed is not his best work as a director. But it's goddamn good enough to earn him the award he's deserved five times before.
WINNER: Martin Scorcese, The Departed
BEST ACTOR:
Ryan Gosling, Half-Nelson
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Forrest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Not Leo -- he was better in The Departed, and the movie itself as mediocre at best. Not Gosling -- he's a phenomenal young actor, and he'll win this someday down the line, but this is more of a "Best Breakthrough Performance" at the MTV Awards than an Oscar Winning Performance. Not Smith -- he's Will Fucking Smith, and he'll follow up this with a movie wherein he plays a wise-cracking cop/detective/spaceman/general-lawman-who-spouts-things-like-"DAYUM!"-and-"Aw HELLLLL naw!"-thus-setting-civil-rights-back-approximately-eighty-years. Congratulations, Will Smith -- you have effectively caused Rosa Parks to roll over in her fucking grave. The thing about Will Smith is that he can play two characters, and he's only ever played two characters -- Muhammad Ali (which, for the record, was a fantastic performance), and The Fresh Prince. Think about Independence Day -- This is what happens if The Fresh Prince is a military fighter pilot. Think about Wild Wild West -- This is what happens if The Fresh Prince is a sherrif in the old west. Think about Men In Black -- This is what happens if The Fresh Prince tries to do The X-Files. Think about Enemy of the State -- This is what happens if The Fresh Prince is framed for some government conspiracy involving a corrupt Gene Hackman. The point is, every role the guy takes on, he just turns into a vehicle for his goofy Fresh Prince character. He's a one-trick pony. This award will never, ever, ever be his.
Peter O'Toole? An outside chance, mostly for sympathy, because he's like 90 years old, been nominated 8 times before, and all he's got to show for it is a pity "Lifetime Achievement" award. But that's not going to trump Forrest Whitaker, who's coming off the most critically-acclaimed year of his life (in addition to Scotland, he put in a supporting turn on The Shield that, if it doesn't win him a shelf full of awards, will be a huge fucking injustice). Add to that the fact that he's won pretty much every critics award up to this point, and this is the second-easiest Oscar race to call.
WINNER: Forrest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
BEST ACTRESS:
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Four Other Chicks Who Aren't Going To Win
A cop-out? Maybe. But no matter how entertaining Meryl Streep was in The Devil Wears Prada, no matter how surprisingly versatile Penelope Cruz was in Volver, no matter how deliciously deceptive Judi Dench was in Notes on a Scandal, and no matter how heartbreakingly vulnerable Kate Winslet was in Little Children, the fact remains that all four of them are up against fucking Helen Mirren for The Queen. This is officially the easiest Oscar call in the history of the Oscars.
WINNER: Helen Mirren, The Queen
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Message to Blanchett: Despite being one of the most versatile actresses of your generation (as well as drop-dead gorgeous), you already have this award. Where's your next Elizabeth so you can nail the Best Actress category?
Message to Breslin: You're adorable, but you're not Tatum O'Neal, and you're damn sure no Anna Paquin.
Message to Kikuchi and Barraza: Who are you?
Fuck me. An American Idol reject is about to win a fucking Academy Award.
WINNER: *sigh* Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Marky Mark, The Departed
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Djimon Hounsou, welcome to KateWinslettland -- You shall be nominated for an Oscar for every role you play, but you will never, ever win, even if you deserve it (not for this, though -- you deserved it ten years ago for Amistad).
Marky Mark, of all the amazing performances in The Departed (all of which could arguably be considered supporting roles), how did YOU end up with this nomination? You maybe had five minutes of screen time more than Alec Baldwin. ALEC BALDWIN~! You may be the only acting nominee from The Departed, but you're damn sure not the only deserving one. Plus, Scorcese's Oscar is your reward.
Alan Arkin and Jackie Earle Haley -- in any other year, this would be all about you two. Arkin, one of the only bright spots in the dreadfully mediocre Little Miss Sunshine; and Haley, one of the very few people who can make a child molester both sympathetic AND likeable -- that takes fucking chops, Mr. Haley. Still, none of this changes the fact that even though everybody in Hollywood hates Eddie Murphy because he's a fucking ungrateful prick and hasn't made a good movie since Boomerang (and hasn't made a GREAT movie since Harlem Nights), everybody still wants to give him an Oscar for his turn as a broken-down has-been in Dreamgirls.
WINNER: Velvet Jones
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Little Miss Sunshine
Babel
The Queen
Letters From Iwo Jima
Pan's Labyrinth
Traditionally, the movie that I think was the best picture of the year wins one of the screenwriting awards (see also: Traffic, Pulp Fiction, Fargo, L.A. Confidential, Sideways, etc.). In years wherein this is not the case, the screenwriting awards typically go to the movies that the Academy wants to honor, but don't really fit in as winners anywhere else.
So, let's break down the nominees and see what films will win in other, lesser categories (not that an art director is any less important than, say, a screenwriter, but that's the way the Academy presents it to us, so if you don't like me calling them lesser, blame the fucking Academy).
Letters from Iwo Jima and Babel are going to butt heads in pretty much every technical category, from art direction to sound editing and pretty much everything in between. And, as has been said several times, The Queen isn't going to win anything except Best Actress for Mirren, and it'll still go home one of the biggest winners because she's fucking Helen Mirren and she's old and the greatest actress older than Julianne Moore.
That leaves us, again, with two: Pan's Labyrinth, a film which manages to be simultaneously fantastical, spiritual, moving, emotional, and really fucking cool; and Little Miss Sunshine, a wacky little road comedy starring the guy who used to host Talk Soup. Logic will not prevail here.
WINNER: Little Miss Sunshine
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
The Departed
Notes on a Scandal
Little Children
Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazhakstan
Children of Men
Is there any chance in hell that Borat wins this? Fuck, I'd love to see that. And since Cohen didn't get an acting nod (which he seriously deserved), this could be his reward.
Still, I think it comes down to The Departed or Children of Men. However, since the former is already primed to win the top two awards of the night, it's likely that this award will go to Children of Men, a movie which everybody loved and inexplicably ended up with only one major nod (in this category). On the other hand, though, these two could split the vote and Little Children or Notes on a Scandal could pull an upset. Then again, THOSE two could split each other, and if Departed and Children split too, I suppose Borat could actually win this fucking award. Fuck, this is probably the hardest category to call this year.
Okay, I'm taking the safe route and saying that, of Departed and Children, the latter is the safer bet, and the same is true of Little Children and Notes. So, it's down to Children of Men or Notes on a Scandal. This is a total crapshoot.
WINNER: Children of Men
OTHER RANDOM AWARDS:
As I said before, I think Babel and Letters from Iwo Jima are going to take most of the technical awards.
Here's an interesting note: The three nominees for Best Makeup are Pan's Labyrinth, which will win; Apocalypto, which was directed by a dude who hates Jews in a town that's run by Jews; and Click. Yes, Click. Apparently, it took a lot of makeup to make Adam Sandler look goofy, Kate Beckinsale look hot, and Christopher Walken look like a crazy old man. How the fuck did Click get an Oscar nomination for Best Makeup?
Question: If An Inconvenient Truth receives the most overall votes for Best Documentary Feature, but Jesus Camp wins Florida, will Al Gore still get an Oscar, or will he get fucked again? Obviously, An Inconveneitn Truth will win this one, if not because it manages to make Al Gore giving a PowerPoint presentation for 90 minutes INTERESTING, but because it contains the single best line in a movie this year: "Hello, I'm Al Gore, and I used to be the next President of the United States."
Best Foreign Language Film? I'm surprised neither Volver nor Letters from Iwo Jima got nods here. I'm not sure what the rules for what qualifies as a "foreign language film" are, but given the nominees, Pan's Labyrinth is a shoe-in.
Best Animated Feature: Apparently, everybody forgot that A Scanner Darkly was, in fact, a cartoon. So yeah, here's one more for Pixar with Cars. I didn't see it, but when was the last time a Pixar movie was nominated for this award and didn't win it? Oh, that's right, never.
Best Original Song: Y'know, they really need to have an award for "Best Non-Original" song, as in best use of a song that was not written expressly for this particular film, because if they had one, Lynyrd Skynyrd would have won a fucking Oscar last year for the final scene in The Devil's Rejects, wherein the Firefly clan is blown to fucking smithereens by the largest consortium of state troopers ever assembled on film over the golden tones of "Freebird." Or maybe that award should go to the director or music executive, in which case ROB ZOMBIE~! would have a fucking Academy Award. Either way, that would be much more interesting than three songs from Dreamgirls. And, again, this category fucks over several great songs simply because they were original pop songs and not songs from a fucking musical. I like musicals as much as the next guy (actually, I probably like musicals MORE than the next GUY), but is some generic Beyonce tune really more worthy than the best Bond song since "Nobody Does it Better?" Not in the book of Princess Used. Chris Cornell needs an Oscar.
So anyways. Come back a week from Sunday, and you can tell me how far off my predictions were.
phunkybrewster:
whoa LOL
shando:
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!