Monte Hall Theory
If you choose door #1.
Monte shows you #2 it's a goat.
Do you switch to #3?
Yes because the odds are 66% in your favor.
Why?
Take 100 doors
you pick 1
2 to 99 are shown to be duds
what are the odds that door 100 has the car? 99%
So apply this to a multiple choice example.
You got some question with 4 choices.
one is the answer
one is an obvious false answer
the other two are middle of the road
so
probability wise before crossing out the wrong answer
A. 25%
B. 25%
C. 25%
D. 25%
you eliminate B, choose A as your first guess.
A 25%
C 37.5%
D 37.5%
You eliminate C
A. 25%
D 75%
If you have no clue either way your best bet is to switch your awnswer to D
(i'm bored)
If you choose door #1.
Monte shows you #2 it's a goat.
Do you switch to #3?
Yes because the odds are 66% in your favor.
Why?
Take 100 doors
you pick 1
2 to 99 are shown to be duds
what are the odds that door 100 has the car? 99%
So apply this to a multiple choice example.
You got some question with 4 choices.
one is the answer
one is an obvious false answer
the other two are middle of the road
so
probability wise before crossing out the wrong answer
A. 25%
B. 25%
C. 25%
D. 25%
you eliminate B, choose A as your first guess.
A 25%
C 37.5%
D 37.5%
You eliminate C
A. 25%
D 75%
If you have no clue either way your best bet is to switch your awnswer to D
(i'm bored)