The new Conservative Party of Canada (CPoC) has handed the Liberal party of Canada a guaranteed victory in the next federal election expected to be called later this spring or in the fall. The election of Stephen Harper (aka Harpoon) has shown the new party of what it is: a far right wing small c grouping of individuals. These individuals who were dissatisfied with the progressive element of the old Progressive Conservative party of Canada (PC) broke away for the PCs to become the Reform party of Canada, and over the last several years have managed to merge and now swallow the PC to become a conservative party with out the baggage associated with Canadas social safety net.
This is a little speculative now as the CPoC has yet to detail its policies, however the strong showing of Harpoon over the 2nd place Stronach, who is much more centrist and socially minded, should prove that the far right agenda the merged previous Reform/Alliance party under Harpoons leadership will stay in place.
So what does this mean? Basically if the policy announcements made by the CPoC maintain the right wing agenda the Liberals with have far more fodder during an election campaign then they would under a more moderate conservative alternative. The liberals will be able to scare a lot of socially minded voters, who are presently upset with them due to the various scandals, back into the liberal fold, as well, they may be able to capture a lot of PC voters who are pissed of at Harpoon and the CPoC for decimating the Progressive Conservative party. Basically anyone who does not share the CPoCs right wing agenda will probably not vote for them. They may not vote liberal either however any vote not cast to the CPoC is a helping vote for the Liberal re-election.
Variables
If Harpoon sees that he has to moderate to win the election and uses Stronach to help they could tone down the right wing policy and have her be the point person to deliver the so called progressive element of the CPoC. This may appease many of those pissed off PC members, which could give the CPoC a minority win. Who they would partner with in this scenario will be the real question.
If the Liberals blow the campaign by either making mistakes, or not spinning the scandals correctly or not attacking the CPoC as party with an ultra right wing agenda ready to destroy the social underpinnings of Canadian life they then may be facing a minority government which could provoke an interesting outcome. (See my previous Journal entry News Days Coming) However I do not believe the Liberal Party under Martin will do this, if anything we will probably see one of the best, perfectly orchestrated Liberal election campaign since Trudeau took the Liberals back to power after the brief PC stint under Joe Clark in the late 70s.
One thing is for sure that over the next 6 weeks a lot of the variables, which makes this analysis speculative, will solidify and allow for a more accurate analysis and prediction. There is a lot more to come.
This is a little speculative now as the CPoC has yet to detail its policies, however the strong showing of Harpoon over the 2nd place Stronach, who is much more centrist and socially minded, should prove that the far right agenda the merged previous Reform/Alliance party under Harpoons leadership will stay in place.
So what does this mean? Basically if the policy announcements made by the CPoC maintain the right wing agenda the Liberals with have far more fodder during an election campaign then they would under a more moderate conservative alternative. The liberals will be able to scare a lot of socially minded voters, who are presently upset with them due to the various scandals, back into the liberal fold, as well, they may be able to capture a lot of PC voters who are pissed of at Harpoon and the CPoC for decimating the Progressive Conservative party. Basically anyone who does not share the CPoCs right wing agenda will probably not vote for them. They may not vote liberal either however any vote not cast to the CPoC is a helping vote for the Liberal re-election.
Variables
If Harpoon sees that he has to moderate to win the election and uses Stronach to help they could tone down the right wing policy and have her be the point person to deliver the so called progressive element of the CPoC. This may appease many of those pissed off PC members, which could give the CPoC a minority win. Who they would partner with in this scenario will be the real question.
If the Liberals blow the campaign by either making mistakes, or not spinning the scandals correctly or not attacking the CPoC as party with an ultra right wing agenda ready to destroy the social underpinnings of Canadian life they then may be facing a minority government which could provoke an interesting outcome. (See my previous Journal entry News Days Coming) However I do not believe the Liberal Party under Martin will do this, if anything we will probably see one of the best, perfectly orchestrated Liberal election campaign since Trudeau took the Liberals back to power after the brief PC stint under Joe Clark in the late 70s.
One thing is for sure that over the next 6 weeks a lot of the variables, which makes this analysis speculative, will solidify and allow for a more accurate analysis and prediction. There is a lot more to come.