First John Kerry and today, President Bush.
Why have both men picked Scranton, a shrinking city of 75,000 people, to
make their first campaign stop after their national conventions?
Both parties have reason to believe they can find many of Pennsylvania's
swing voters there and, with them, the key to winning the state's 21
electoral votes, which after Florida is the largest prize among states
considered competitive.
The region's largely Catholic population and history of organized labor
combine to produce culturally
conservative Democrats, who have shown a willingness to vote Republican
under the right circumstances. Another reason has to do with the habits of
Pennsylvania media outlets.
A visit to Northeast Pennsylvania draws reporters from newspapers and
television stations in Philadelphia, the Lehigh Valley and elsewhere in
addition to Scranton, where two network affiliates pre-empted scheduled
programming to carry Kerry's July visit live.
But Scranton media rarely venture outside their own sphere to cover campaign
events, making it essential for candidates to go there to have their
messages heard. And each party believes its message is tailor-made for
Scranton.
For Democrats, that message is a loss of manufacturing jobs under Bush. On
Wednesday, vice presidential candidate John Edwards came to Hughestown, a
small borough nine miles south of Scranton, to have a made-for-media chat
with three laid-off workers of a television glassmaking plant.
Unemployment rates in Lackawanna County, where Scranton is the county seat,
and southern neighbor Luzerne County, home to Wilkes-Barre and Hazleton, are
above state and national averages. In July alone, 4,300 jobs were lost from
the region, said Edward Mitchell, a Democratic media strategist based in
Wilkes-Barre.
''All the problems that the Democrats are stressing exist in microcosm in
the Northeast,'' said William Parente, a political science professor at the
University of Scranton.
Although Democrats enjoy a clear registration edge here, a Kerry victory is
not assured.
This is the land of the Reagan Democrat, though the locals prefer to call
themselves Casey Democrats, for Robert P. Casey Sr., the native son and
former governor whose opposition to abortion ostracized him from most others
in his party.
Half of Scranton's population has Irish or Italian ancestry; Catholic is the
predominant religion.
''Issues like abortion and gay marriage and guns tend to make a difference
in some situations here, which is why you tend fo have people like Santorum
do well here,'' Mitchell said. Santorum has been a driving force behind a
Bush visit to Scranton.
''One of the most important places in the state where the president
underperformed and can perform much better is in Northeast Pennsylvania,''
Santorum said in a recent interview. ''I've been stressing from day one that
the president needs to be in that area.''
He hopes to see Bush do ''a few percentage points better'' in the Northeast
than in 2000. Al Gore took 57.7 percent of the vote in Lackawanna and
Luzerne counties, besting Bush by 32,000 votes in 2000. It's not uncommon
for Scrantonians to vote against their registration, as many from the region
did in supporting Republican Ronald Reagan in 1980.
There has been a tendency to vote for Democrats in local races because they
promise jobs, Mitchell said, and to vote for Republicans in national
contests because of the underlying social conservatism.
''Bill Scranton taught them how to split a ticket and they never went
back,'' said Mitchell, recalling the former Republican governor and native
son.
William W. Scranton won the governor's mansion in 1962 with a strong showing
in his home area. Even more startling was his 1960 defeat of a Democratic
incumbent congressman even though there were 50,000 more registered
Democrats.
And while Democrat John F. Kennedy whipped Republican Richard Nixon by
30,000 votes in Lackawanna County en route to a Pennsylvania victory,
Scranton won his race there by 17,000 votes.
This morning, Bush visits Lackawanna County Stadium in Moosic, a borough
just outside of Scranton. But neither Mitchell nor Parente thought such
efforts would be enough to propel Bush to victory in Northeast Pennsylvania.
Pocketbook issues are what's most important to Scranton voters, Mitchell
said.
Democrats have won Lackawanna and Luzerne counties and Pennsylvania in
each of the last three presidential contests and Parente said he sees no
reason why that will change this year, particularly with Democrat Ed Rendell
in the governor's office.
_________________________________________________________________
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Why have both men picked Scranton, a shrinking city of 75,000 people, to
make their first campaign stop after their national conventions?
Both parties have reason to believe they can find many of Pennsylvania's
swing voters there and, with them, the key to winning the state's 21
electoral votes, which after Florida is the largest prize among states
considered competitive.
The region's largely Catholic population and history of organized labor
combine to produce culturally
conservative Democrats, who have shown a willingness to vote Republican
under the right circumstances. Another reason has to do with the habits of
Pennsylvania media outlets.
A visit to Northeast Pennsylvania draws reporters from newspapers and
television stations in Philadelphia, the Lehigh Valley and elsewhere in
addition to Scranton, where two network affiliates pre-empted scheduled
programming to carry Kerry's July visit live.
But Scranton media rarely venture outside their own sphere to cover campaign
events, making it essential for candidates to go there to have their
messages heard. And each party believes its message is tailor-made for
Scranton.
For Democrats, that message is a loss of manufacturing jobs under Bush. On
Wednesday, vice presidential candidate John Edwards came to Hughestown, a
small borough nine miles south of Scranton, to have a made-for-media chat
with three laid-off workers of a television glassmaking plant.
Unemployment rates in Lackawanna County, where Scranton is the county seat,
and southern neighbor Luzerne County, home to Wilkes-Barre and Hazleton, are
above state and national averages. In July alone, 4,300 jobs were lost from
the region, said Edward Mitchell, a Democratic media strategist based in
Wilkes-Barre.
''All the problems that the Democrats are stressing exist in microcosm in
the Northeast,'' said William Parente, a political science professor at the
University of Scranton.
Although Democrats enjoy a clear registration edge here, a Kerry victory is
not assured.
This is the land of the Reagan Democrat, though the locals prefer to call
themselves Casey Democrats, for Robert P. Casey Sr., the native son and
former governor whose opposition to abortion ostracized him from most others
in his party.
Half of Scranton's population has Irish or Italian ancestry; Catholic is the
predominant religion.
''Issues like abortion and gay marriage and guns tend to make a difference
in some situations here, which is why you tend fo have people like Santorum
do well here,'' Mitchell said. Santorum has been a driving force behind a
Bush visit to Scranton.
''One of the most important places in the state where the president
underperformed and can perform much better is in Northeast Pennsylvania,''
Santorum said in a recent interview. ''I've been stressing from day one that
the president needs to be in that area.''
He hopes to see Bush do ''a few percentage points better'' in the Northeast
than in 2000. Al Gore took 57.7 percent of the vote in Lackawanna and
Luzerne counties, besting Bush by 32,000 votes in 2000. It's not uncommon
for Scrantonians to vote against their registration, as many from the region
did in supporting Republican Ronald Reagan in 1980.
There has been a tendency to vote for Democrats in local races because they
promise jobs, Mitchell said, and to vote for Republicans in national
contests because of the underlying social conservatism.
''Bill Scranton taught them how to split a ticket and they never went
back,'' said Mitchell, recalling the former Republican governor and native
son.
William W. Scranton won the governor's mansion in 1962 with a strong showing
in his home area. Even more startling was his 1960 defeat of a Democratic
incumbent congressman even though there were 50,000 more registered
Democrats.
And while Democrat John F. Kennedy whipped Republican Richard Nixon by
30,000 votes in Lackawanna County en route to a Pennsylvania victory,
Scranton won his race there by 17,000 votes.
This morning, Bush visits Lackawanna County Stadium in Moosic, a borough
just outside of Scranton. But neither Mitchell nor Parente thought such
efforts would be enough to propel Bush to victory in Northeast Pennsylvania.
Pocketbook issues are what's most important to Scranton voters, Mitchell
said.
Democrats have won Lackawanna and Luzerne counties and Pennsylvania in
each of the last three presidential contests and Parente said he sees no
reason why that will change this year, particularly with Democrat Ed Rendell
in the governor's office.
_________________________________________________________________
Get ready for school! Find articles, homework help and more in the Back to
School Guide! http://special.msn.com/network/04backtoschool.armx