31 Days To Iowa, GOP Style
Thirty-one days until the corn engorged people of Iowa shuffle into voting booths and pick from the saddest field of GOP candidates in a long, long time. Then the insane mountain lunatics from New Hampshire will follow five days later. At that point I expect a name to emerge that will scare the shit out of every sane person in the country: Huckabee.
Huckabee pretty much annihilated the competition in Wednesdays Republican debate, which has led to another bounce. Its not his first bounce, either. He got one from the Ames Straw poll in August and has been rising ever since.
A December 1st poll of Republican voters shows Huckabee pulling ahead in Iowa for the first time. In early October, the same poll had Mitt Romney ahead by 17 percentage points. Shit, Huckabee used to be behind the walking corpse called Fred Thompson. But now the Christian psycho is on a roll.
It doesn't look as good for Huckabee in New Hampshire, where he is sitting in the middle of the pack, but also rising. With 15%, he has his highest support yet in New Hampshire and is way up from the 4% he had in September. Romney is kicking ass in the militia state, while Giuliani and McCain are slipping down. Huckabee should get a big bounce if he wins Iowa and could easily close on Romney.
Giuliani is collapsing into a giant shit heap. He has slipped into third in Iowa with 13% and is tied for second place in New Hampshire with Huckabee and McCain. But in New Hampshire he is trending down. Also, he has some major electability problems in Iowa.
Thirty-four percent of likely caucusgoers see him as one of the worst choices for the Republican nomination.
38 percent have unfavorable feelings toward him.
Those are not good numbers, considering they are coming from his party. Giuliani's new Shag Fund scandal should completely doom him, unless of course, conservatives are okay with a guy having the NYPD pay for his fuck trips, act like a cab for his mistress and her friends around town, drive her to her parents house in Pennsylvania and walk her dog. Yes, he had cops walk his mistress dog. Hes done.
Fred Thompson is fourth in Iowa, but there is no reason to even discuss him.
McCain is pretty screwed as well. Hes sitting in fifth in Iowa with 7% and second in New Hampshire with 15%. With his kind of name recognition he should be doing much better. And contrary to what Ron Pauls insane followers want you to think, he is just a zit on the ass of the Republican field. Paul is tied with McCain for fifth in Iowa and in New Hampshire has a whopping 8%. But that is not the worst news for Paul.
Iowa:
Paul has the highest unfavorable mark in the poll, at 44 percent.
New Hampshire:
Paul is viewed unfavorably by 57% of Likely Republican Primary Voters.
Paul is plowing forward with a lot of cash but Republicans just dont like him. All he has been able to do is catch the already dead McCain in Iowa. Congrats, loser.
But, but, he wins every online....
Shut the fuck up. Ron Paul already lost.
This race is looking like Huckabee and Mitt Romney. Mitt has decent numbers in Iowa and fantastic numbers in New Hampshire. Much of that is due to the fact that Romney has completely out spent his fellow candidates in the two states.
Unfortunately, he is now slipping in Iowa and has dropped five points since October to 24% as of last week. But in New Hampshire, Romney is a Mormon freight train.
In New Hampshires Republican Presidential Primary, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 34% support and a nineteen-point lead. Making the most of his home field advantage, Romney has steadily increased his lead from fifteen points earlier in November, nine-points in October and three-points in September.
You go, girl.
The key fact in this mess is that Huckabee hasnt been spending money. Hes been doing it all with a grass roots following, public appearances and through debates. Now that Huckabee is ahead in Iowa, expect him to get a massive infusion of cash and become a serious contender for president. Right now he has the best chance. Scary.
39 Days To Iowa
Oh, shit. We are now officially getting down to it. The Iowa were a special state caucus is on January 3rd and there are 45 delegates up for grabs. Five days later the New Hampshire primary will be held and that tiny, weird state will cough up 22 delegates. I think it is fucking bullshit that Iowa gets to hold the first primary every year and make an enormous impact on the presidential election because based on recent candidates; they are sucking at their picks.
The big news out of Iowa is that Hillary is beginning to drop. The latest poll has her numbers sinking from 43% in September to 26% now. That is a plummet and puts her in second place behind Obama, who comes in at 30%. Edwards is bringing up the rear with 22%.
The way voters are talking, it sounds like the last thing they want is Hillary Clinton, regardless of how the media is trying to make her sound inevitable.
And according to the Washington Post-ABC News poll, more voters are looking for "new direction and new ideas" than are those who believe "strength and experience" are the most important qualities in a Democratic presidential candidate.
New direction, new ideas = Obama. Old ideas, old direction = Hillary. Theres more.
Clinton comes in 4th on which Democrat is most "honest and trustworthy" -- 27% Obama, 18% Edwards, 14% Richardson, 13% Clinton.
Fourth. That is incredibly poor for the leading presidential candidate. The only guy I know of who won a presidential election when people did not consider him honest and trustworthy was Nixon. In 68, he hit the road and had a bunch of townhall meetings, basically winning over people because of his knowledge and intellect. Americans didnt like him but they thought he would do a better job. After eight years of Bush I dont know if that is going to fly for Hillary.
In less than 50 days, we are going to be down to two candidates. Most likely, Obama and Clinton. That is when I believe we will really begin to see the Clinton likeability factor. People will begin leaving their favorite candidate, as Edwards, Richardson, Dodd, and the rest fall way. Where will those people go? I cant see very many of Edward's followers going to Hillary because she is seen as a corporate beast and he is running a populist campaign.
Edwards has also been falling in Iowa and those votes are going to either Obama or Richardson. They are clearly not jumping over to Hillary. But Hillary is not giving up and has recently flooded the state with operatives. The only problem is that everyone already knows Hillary, which means more organizers isnt going to make a difference. Almost everyone has made up their mind about Hillary and voters are now picking between the guys they dont know: Richardson and Obama.
In New Hampshire, Clinton has a bigger lead but she is also starting to slip. Edwards is in a dead heat with Richardson, but he is falling while Richardson is going up. If Richardson finishes ahead of Edwards, the southern ex-Senator will be in pretty, bad shape and may be close to calling it a day.
If Obama has a good showing in Iowa, which is how it is looking now, he could be riding a huge wave of good time feelings. Headlines will be screaming that he kicked the ass of the ex-Presidents wife. More money comes flooding in and he is off and running. At that point, Clinton will have to go very negative, which coming from an unlikable person never goes over well. She already started last week and it was rather pathetic.
I believe I have the right kind of experience to be the next President. With a war and a tough economy, we need a President ready on Day One to bring our troops home from Iraq and to handle all of our other tough challenges. Now voters will judge whether living in a foreign country at the age of 10 prepares one to face the big, complex international challenges the next President will face.
Ah, yes, he doesnt have any foreign experience. Slam. Or was it?
Obama's retort: "I was wondering which world leader told her that we needed to invade Iraq."
And game over. That is a quick and easy ass kicking by Obama. Note to Hillary: If you are going to talk shit about someone not having any experience, make sure your own experience doesn't suck.
Will his lack of foreign policy experience be a problem? Yep. Will anyone who voted to go into Iraq be able to call him on it? Nope. Certainly the voters in Iowa are taking his foreign policy experience into account and they are still moving in his direction. He's also got this big likeability/sexy thing going on. That is always tough to beat.
Clinton is on top right now in nationwide poll, but that does not mean shit. If Obama pulls off Iowa, he heads into New Hampshire with a lot of momentum. If he then manages to pull off win in the granite state, then Hillary is fucked going into South Carolina. The primary season will only last three weeks after that and all the spinning of inevitable over the past month by her campaign will bite her in the ass.
For the record, I dont want either one of them. (Im a racist/sexist.)
Tom Vilsack Enters a Crowded Presidential Race
Does anyone else feel like we've entered a constant election cycle? The new congress isn't even in session yet and we're already being bombarded with talk about the 2008 election. My prediction is that candidates for the 2012 presidential election will be announcing their "contingent bids" next year, that is, depending on who wins elections in 2008 and 2010 they either will or will not be running for the presidency in 2012. Regardless, today brings Tom Vilsack, yet another Democratic candidate into the 2008 primary election, to join the possible ranks of Hillary Clinton, Mark Warner, Evan Bayh, Joe Biden, Barack Obama, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, John Kerry, Dick Durbin, Al Gore and apparently any other Democrat with access to a camera.
"America needs a president who builds and creates, who makes our country more secure, who is bold and has the courage to create change," Vilsack told a hometown crowd of supporters. "I will be that president."
In all fairness, until he's been covered in campaign dirt and dubbed a cheesy (but oft-repeated) catch phrase by Matt Drudge or FreeRepublic, Vilsack is actually a pretty strong candidate. Governors typically fare better in presidential races than senators or sitting congressional representatives (who do particularly bad), being from Iowa is a boon because it's traditionally a working-class Democratic state and so can avoid criticism of "Northeastern elitism" or "West Coast radicalism" that tends to drag down prominent Democrats.
What he really lacks is star power, particularly in an election that will be dominated by household names like Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, and so he's getting an early start to try and let people know who he is.
In his speech Thursday morning, Vilsack highlighted a personal story that his advisers believe will be compelling as he introduces himself to voters around the country. Orphaned as an infant, he was adopted into the home of a mother who battled alcohol and drug addiction and eventually abandoned her family, leaving him to be raised for a time by his adoptive father. His mother later overcame her addictions, and the family was reunited.
"She relied on her faith, family and friends," Vilsack said. "In doing so she taught me a valuable lessonthat the courage to create change can overcome anything, and that community can give you the support and confidence to succeed."
Vilsack, who turns 56 next month, was born in Pittsburgh but came to Iowa to pursue the woman he met at Hamilton College in New York state and whom he eventually married, Iowa first lady Christie Vilsack. They settled in this small town (population about 8,700), where she was raised. She taught at the local middle school, and he practiced law. He served as the town's mayor and later as state senator.
Not bad, it doesn't induce the gag reflex that Hillary Clinton's name seems to have on about half the country, but not really as compelling as Barack Obama's life story, chronicled in several speeches. And his criticisms are going to have to be more original than the Bush-bashing people are undoubtedly going to be sick of two years from now, which is what he's currently serving.
Today in the White House," he said, "we have a president whose first reflex is to divide and conquer, who preys on insecurities and fears for partisan gain, who has tried to rob us of the very asset that has made the United States the greatest country on earth: Our sense of community, optimism and can-do spirit."
He charged that the country today is less safe and secure than it was six years ago. "Our way of life and national security have been put at risk by fiscal irresponsibility and by our dependence upon foreign oil and the countries that provide it," he said. "In some cases, the governments of these countries take our moneyand yet despise us and harbor terrorists."
OK, we get it, you're not Bush, and Democrats don't like Bush. This year's midterm election crop established that pretty well too. The real question is whether someone like Vilsack, who hasn't endured intense national scrutiny before, can deal with the merciless digging and poking and prodding by the media (not to mention the inevitable smear campaigns by the conservative media) that anyone seeking a prominent office is subjected to these days.
Good luck Tom, it's a long, hard journey you've just embarked on.