Australian newspaper, Queensland's Courier-Mail, reports that "gun-related crime in Queensland has more than halved in eight years in what has been hailed as a victory for the Federal Government's controversial gun buyback scheme." The buyback scheme, enacted in the wake of the 1996 shootings in Port Arthur, Tasmania by Martin Bryant, caused unrest among shooters' groups but was widely supported by the Australian public.
This did not stop inaccurate stories circulating internationally about the supposedly drastic increases in crime resulting from the buyback. Even the would-we-lie-to-you NRA got involved in the spin exercise, provoking stern criticism from the Australian government.
Whether the reduction is actually attributed to the buyback remains to be seen. One problem is that Australian violent crime rates are low relative to the US, including in per capita terms, so small changes from year to year can appear larger. Sensible statistical analysis requires more than just eyeballing time trend data and jumping to a conclusion.
But the examples of detailed and "careful" gun scholarship don't augur well. Historian Michael Bellesiles was accused of shoddy scholarship (PDF file) after the publication of his book challenging the rise of American gun culture, Arming America. He resigned his university post.
Meanwhile, economist John Lott has been accused not only of making up his numbers on defensive use of guns to thwart criminals, but of making up an online persona to favourably review his own work and criticise that of others.
Moral: When you read grandiose claims about guns and crime rates be cautious in your interpretation of them. Or find some other entertaining fiction to read.
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Comments
Sonntag
Atlanta, GA
August 2003
FEB 25, 2004 05:04 AM
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November 2003
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January 2004
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Baltimore, MD
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Corolla, NC
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New Orleans, LA
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Victoria, BC
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Humptulips, WA
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Anchorage, AK
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Nashville, TN
February 2004
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