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  • FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 17 2004 4:16 PM

Bush Lead Evaporates, Says AP Poll

Submitted by Stiles

Edited by Michael_J_Totten

So much for the RNC convention bounce!

The GOP convention gave President Bush a double-digit lead, but the race has settled into a virtual tie with voters still worried about the economy and Iraq, according to polling by the Pew Research Center.

The first of two national polls by Pew, done Sept. 8-10, reflected the president's post-convention bounce. Bush was ahead of Democrat John Kerry 52-40 among registered voters and by an even wider margin, 54-39, among likely voters, a narrower group.

[...]

"Bush's vulnerabilities on Iraq and the economy continue, and these have anchored the race."

[...]

By the second poll, done Sept. 11-14, the Bush lead had evaporated. In that poll, Bush and Kerry were knotted at 46 percent among registered voters. Among likely voters, Bush was at 47 percent and Kerry at 46 percent.


And so much for the "conventional wisdom" that the convention sealed the presidential race in Bush's favor.

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Comments
Skryche

skryche

New York, NY
January 2003

SEP 17, 2004 04:35 PM

That's very nice to hear.

RubberSoul

RubberSoul

Los Angeles, CA
February 2003

SEP 17, 2004 04:36 PM

Yeah, but the USA Today/Gallop Poll released today has Bush ahead by like 12 points. Who knows? Polls suck.

Keith

Keith

Oklahoma City, OK
August 2002

SEP 17, 2004 04:38 PM

souljacker said:
Yeah, but the USA Today/Gallop Poll released today has Bush ahead by like 12 points. Who knows? Polls suck.



And the Gallop poll assumes that 40% of Republicans will vote compared to only 33% of Democrats. Which I certainly don't think will be the case this year.

Mike11

Mike11

Titusville, FL
OLD SKOOL

SEP 17, 2004 04:41 PM

Keith said:

souljacker said:
Yeah, but the USA Today/Gallop Poll released today has Bush ahead by like 12 points. Who knows? Polls suck.



And the Gallop poll assumes that 40% of Republicans will vote compared to only 33% of Democrats. Which I certainly don't think will be the case this year.


But the increase could be the ame for both groups Maybe this year it will be 50% Rep. and 43% Dems. You just cant tell.

waxangel

waxangel

Baltimore, MD
May 2003

SEP 17, 2004 04:43 PM

Wow, so if the entire American electorate was comprised of people who sit around and answer phone polls this might not be meaningless.

smithers_jones

smithers_jones

I'm lost
November 2003

SEP 17, 2004 04:44 PM

It is odd to see polls with such divergent results. Frankly the whole horse race aspect of the election is a huge snore to me. Aren't there, you know, actual political issues the media could be discussing instead?

ChrisSick

ChrisSick

Philadelphia, PA
March 2008

SEP 17, 2004 04:51 PM

i was just discussing wiht a freidn how exit polling during the primaries showed that many voted for kerry despite supporting dean, their reasin was that they believed that kerry had a better chance of winning and a better chance of beating bush. wonderful. polling has gone way too far, to the point where it is seriously starting to influnence elections. if more people paid attention to issues over polls maybe we'd all be better off.

of course, i'm the one telling everyone kerry is a lost cause at this point based on this and breaking out in a cold sweat if a day goes by and i can't get my hands on some polling data. but i'm crazy like that.

TheRealTexaSGuy

TheRealTexaSGuy

Tacoma, WA
December 2003

SEP 17, 2004 05:28 PM

a step in the right direction...

SirPsychoSexy

SirPsychoSexy

Ridgewood, NJ
January 2004

SEP 17, 2004 05:53 PM

It was never a step in any direction, when bush was ahead in the National polls but behind in state polls for electoral votes the news said "Bush is Ahead". Now that he is ahead in electoral votes and dead even in national polls "Bush is Ahead" again.

He went from being in the lead to losing the lead... to himself? surreal

SirPsychoSexy

SirPsychoSexy

Ridgewood, NJ
January 2004

SEP 17, 2004 05:55 PM

Mike said:

Keith said:

souljacker said:
Yeah, but the USA Today/Gallop Poll released today has Bush ahead by like 12 points. Who knows? Polls suck.



And the Gallop poll assumes that 40% of Republicans will vote compared to only 33% of Democrats. Which I certainly don't think will be the case this year.


But the increase could be the ame for both groups Maybe this year it will be 50% Rep. and 43% Dems. You just cant tell.



And there are more registered dems than repubs nationally, so a 10% increase for both parties still means more dem votes.

Stiles

Stiles

Oakland, CA
November 2002

SEP 17, 2004 09:16 PM

It's nice to see some counterpoint to the Republican mantra of "if you repeat it often enough, people will believe it, no matter how ridiculous".

Pip

Pip

Framingham, MA
OLD SKOOL

SEP 17, 2004 09:38 PM

IamSick said:
i was just discussing wiht a freidn how exit polling during the primaries showed that many voted for kerry despite supporting dean, their reasin was that they believed that kerry had a better chance of winning and a better chance of beating bush. wonderful. polling has gone way too far, to the point where it is seriously starting to influnence elections. if more people paid attention to issues over polls maybe we'd all be better off.

of course, i'm the one telling everyone kerry is a lost cause at this point based on this and breaking out in a cold sweat if a day goes by and i can't get my hands on some polling data. but i'm crazy like that.




Don't worry about Kerry. He will pull this out of his ass at the last minute. Don;t believe me? Ask Bill Weld, ask Howard Dean. The debates have not happened so these polls are close to meaningless.

NatasKaput

NatasKaput

Bozeman, MT
December 2002

SEP 18, 2004 06:48 AM

i read in the paper today he has the lead, can you smell the bullshit in the air, ah yes election year

legionnaire

legionnaire

Belgium
November 2003

SEP 18, 2004 11:37 AM

smithers_jones said:
It is odd to see polls with such divergent results. Frankly the whole horse race aspect of the election is a huge snore to me. Aren't there, you know, actual political issues the media could be discussing instead?



You're right - it's stupid and it's ridiculous. However, I believe it's important to point out the inaccuracy and inconsistency of political polling for one big reason. There is a mentality that makes no sense to me but is there nonetheless of people wanting to "vote for a winner." If someone sees a presidential candidate trailing significantly in the national polls some people will consider Bush the "winning candidate" and vote for him based solely on this fact. If Kerry is closer then he'll be considered more viable. That's why it needs to be stressed continually the race is too close to call, and faulty polling methods need to be identified as such.

I realize these people who think this way are idiots, but their votes count just as much as the votes of Nobel laureates and so cannot simply be ignored.

UpTight

UpTight

I'm lost
December 2003

SEP 18, 2004 01:42 PM

Every day the Democrat aligned electoral-vote.com produces summaries of the polls projected into electoral colleges.

It currently has Bush leading Kerry by the highest margin since June.

see: http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/graph.html

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