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One of the big arguments for the pro-war crowd is that we just can’t leave those Iraqis alone after invading and setting off a world of chaos. They believe that if we were to leave Iraq, the country would immediately fall apart and many people would be killed. They, of course, never address the fact that people in Iraq are dying all the time and our presence seems to be doing little to stop the violence and some have even argued that a US presence actually encourages violence because our favoritism creates more tension. I agree with the latter.

Now comes some interesting evidence that maybe the “lets keep the troop in Iraq forever” crowd is completely wrong. In September, British troops pulled out of Basra and moved to an airport near the city. Some may find the results surprising, I don’t because it makes complete sense.


Attacks against British and Iraqi forces have plunged by 90 percent in southern Iraq since London withdrew its troops from the main city of Basra, the commander of British forces there said Thursday.

The presence of British forces in downtown Basra, Iraq's second-largest city, was the single largest instigator of violence, Maj. Gen. Graham Binns told reporters.

"We thought, 'If 90 percent of the violence is directed at us, what would happen if we stepped back?'" Binns said.


Well, there you go. The British believed – and have been proven right – that having their troops patrolling only caused more violence because people were trying to kill them. They theorized that if you took out the guys everyone was trying to kill, then less people would try to attack. Pretty simple.

Iraqis now patrol the center of the city and the British rarely enter. The situation is much different in Baghdad because Basra is a Shiite city, while Baghdad is a mix of Sunni and Shiite, who have been fighting for centuries. Pulling troops out might not have the same effect as in Basra, although even the British have been surprised at the incredible drop in violence.


British officials expected a spike in such "intra-militia violence" after they pulled back from the city's center, and were surprised to find none.


The British have been in talks with the most powerful Militia in Basra, the Sadr militia, in an attempt to lure them into being part of the political process. They hope, in the end, that the militia will support the Iraqi security forces.

In other parts of the country, the US has backed the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq over Sadr, even though Sadr has stronger support among the Shiite masses. The ISCI has been losing support due to its ties with the US government and Iran, as well as a reputation for being corrupt and employing death squads. Basically, the US backed the wrong horse and the British example is the way to go for peace. But it is not surprising because the ISCI represents upper class Shiites, while Sadr represents the lower class. We know who the US always chooses in that situation.


As long as the U.S. remains in Iraq, its alliance with ISCI will help entrench the party in the country’s governing, security and intelligence institutions. Its only true challenger remains the Sadr militia, which despite its ruffian credentials and bloody role in sectarian reprisals enjoys broad support among Shiite masses. Their rivalry now takes the form of a class struggle between the Shiite merchant elite of Baghdad and the holy cities, represented by ISCI and the Shiite urban underclass.

This struggle, more than the sectarian conflict or confrontation between Anbari sheikhs and al-Qaeda in Iraq fighters, is likely to shape the country’s future. The most plausible scenario is a protracted struggle for power between these two movements, marked perhaps by temporary alliances, such as is presently in force.


Unlike the British, we have selectively chosen the weakest and least popular of the two forces. In the end, it simply won’t work. The best solution would be to engage both Shiite groups, instead of picking a side. The worst solution is to back the group that does not have the support of the street and create even more resentment between the organizations. Right now the two forces have called a truce to fight the surge.

Of course, none of this takes into account the Sunnis, which the US has been arming to fight al Qaeda. That is also pissing off the Shiites. Each day our policies are creating more and more tension and anger and we are throwing extra weapons in as a bonus. Ugh. Acceptance and negotiation or willful ignorance with force? It sounds like we have taken a completely different approach than the British.

 

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BlastProcessing

BlastProcessing

Knoxville, TN
OLD SKOOL

NOV 19, 2007 11:29 PM

FearTheReaper said:

trapper said:
Do you know how many service men and woman died for your freedom ? I can't believe you would say such a thing.



In my life time. ZERO.



You wouldn't say that if you lived in Grenada.

SirLoins

SirLoins

Killeen, TX
October 2005

NOV 20, 2007 12:10 AM

I guess I'll add to the military "big dick" contest and say I'm also in Baghdad, Iraqi (45 days left baby!) and as a mid-level enlisted with the dual privileges of going on patrols AND sitting in on officer meetings, it seems that we're winning the people over by dumping millions into these neighborhoods that, in my most humble O, would have been better spent at home.

A lot of soldiers, when they talk about the good we do, point to the smiles on children's faces when they hand out backpacks and soccer balls or run a MedOp. I wish the world worked like that. I really do.

The "peace" we've accomplished in Iraq is tenuous as best and once the cash starts trickling back, we can probably expect to see a rise in the violence again. The strategy, so far, is to just throw tons of cash at the problem. I just did an entry on this.

In our AO, we have a simple plan. Our neighborhood has a Sunni AND a Shia section. Since thrusting the American "legal system" on the Iraqis, all we have to do is, when we want to detain a Shia, we go to the Sunni area and get our sworn statements (milspeak for citizen testimony) and if we want to detain a Sunni, vice versa. That's where OUR "success" come from. We overtly play the sides against each other. Detainees are the new body count, baby! biggrin

I won't even get into that these "Sworn Statements" are legally Fifth Amendment Rights waivers which apply only to Americans and lying on one (if you're American) is punishable but the Iraqis (because they fear the Iraqi Police) are encouraged to put fake names on the statements or numbers OR that their testimony is never challenged (as it is usually pretty damn vague).

As for saying soldiers here are dying for freedom. C'mon, now. Soldiers are dying defending nobody but themselves. You can't even say we're dying to defend Iraqis from Iraqis since we're only able to secure the streets we're physically on.

If you're in the military and against the war, check this out:

Iraq Veterans Against the War

It never ceases to amaze me how our country has an overly idealistic view of our military. It's working though. Of my platoon of 20, only 1 is pro-war (though anti-Bush), but I'm the only IVAWer (though some are on the fence). The rest have decided to keep their mouths shut and keep on being "heroes."

More power to 'em. I couldn't sell myself out. I tried, but I couldn't.

Eala

Eala

I'm lost
July 2007

NOV 20, 2007 03:32 AM

SirLoins said:
I guess I'll add to the military "big dick" contest and say I'm also in Baghdad, Iraqi (45 days left baby!) and as a mid-level enlisted with the dual privileges of going on patrols AND sitting in on officer meetings, it seems that we're winning the people over by dumping millions into these neighborhoods that, in my most humble O, would have been better spent at home.

A lot of soldiers, when they talk about the good we do, point to the smiles on children's faces when they hand out backpacks and soccer balls or run a MedOp. I wish the world worked like that. I really do.

The "peace" we've accomplished in Iraq is tenuous as best and once the cash starts trickling back, we can probably expect to see a rise in the violence again. The strategy, so far, is to just throw tons of cash at the problem. I just did an entry on this.

In our AO, we have a simple plan. Our neighborhood has a Sunni AND a Shia section. Since thrusting the American "legal system" on the Iraqis, all we have to do is, when we want to detain a Shia, we go to the Sunni area and get our sworn statements (milspeak for citizen testimony) and if we want to detain a Sunni, vice versa. That's where OUR "success" come from. We overtly play the sides against each other. Detainees are the new body count, baby! biggrin

I won't even get into that these "Sworn Statements" are legally Fifth Amendment Rights waivers which apply only to Americans and lying on one (if you're American) is punishable but the Iraqis (because they fear the Iraqi Police) are encouraged to put fake names on the statements or numbers OR that their testimony is never challenged (as it is usually pretty damn vague).

As for saying soldiers here are dying for freedom. C'mon, now. Soldiers are dying defending nobody but themselves. You can't even say we're dying to defend Iraqis from Iraqis since we're only able to secure the streets we're physically on.

If you're in the military and against the war, check this out:

Iraq Veterans Against the War

It never ceases to amaze me how our country has an overly idealistic view of our military. It's working though. Of my platoon of 20, only 1 is pro-war (though anti-Bush), but I'm the only IVAWer (though some are on the fence). The rest have decided to keep their mouths shut and keep on being "heroes."

More power to 'em. I couldn't sell myself out. I tried, but I couldn't.



You make good points, but I want to point out a discrepency.
I work with detainees, and I am very familiar with the legal process their cases go through. I'm not sure what you're refering to when you say that those sworn statements don't get challenged, or what American legal system you are refering to, as applies to Iraqis. Maybe we are on two different subjects? The detainees we see at the theater level are tried in Iraqi courts, under Iraqi law, and those sworn statements are basically ignored. The people dealing with these cases know damn well the statements are unreliable (at best). So, I guess you could say they are unchallenged, since they aren't even given the time of day, but they are certainly not important to the courts.

Crusader1991

Crusader1991

Moreno Valley, CA
August 2006

NOV 20, 2007 09:30 AM

Southern Iraq and the British area ia a different ball game...can't compare it to the rest of the country.

If we leave...Iran enters...then what people?

Remember 60 years ago when Germany and Japan were our biggest enemies...now they are our best friends. Look at what those relationships have down and imagine Iraq 60 years from now.

BlastProcessing

BlastProcessing

Knoxville, TN
OLD SKOOL

NOV 20, 2007 09:32 AM

Crusader1991 said:
Southern Iraq and the British area ia a different ball game...can't compare it to the rest of the country.

If we leave...Iran enters...then what people?

Remember 60 years ago when Germany and Japan were our biggest enemies...now they are our best friends. Look at what those relationships have down and imagine Iraq 60 years from now.



Did you seriously just make that comparison with a straight face?

Zarth

Zarth

Seattle, WA
December 2004

NOV 20, 2007 10:04 AM

BlastProcessing said:

Crusader1991 said:
Southern Iraq and the British area ia a different ball game...can't compare it to the rest of the country.

If we leave...Iran enters...then what people?

Remember 60 years ago when Germany and Japan were our biggest enemies...now they are our best friends. Look at what those relationships have down and imagine Iraq 60 years from now.


Did you seriously just make that comparison with a straight face?


That's a pretty standard neocon analogy, actually. Of course it ignores the huge distinctions of circumstance between conventionally defeated industrial powers and occupied failed states with ongoing asymmetric conflict - but then, neoconservatism isn't known for acknowledging inconvenient realities when there's a stirring rhetorical point to be scored (usually something along the lines of, "Everybody wants and deserves freedom! Or do you disagree?" or "See? This is just like World War II!").

The worst part is they tend to actually believe their own claptrap.

FearTheReaper

FearTheReaper

NEWSWIRE

I'm lost

NOV 20, 2007 11:24 AM

Crusader1991 said:
Southern Iraq and the British area ia a different ball game...can't compare it to the rest of the country.

If we leave...Iran enters...then what people?
.



Uh, then the inevitable happens. We made a stupid decision and opened the door for Iran. That is what happens when you remove a dictator and the majority of people share a common religion with the people next door.

Also, THEN WHAT!?!?!?!? OH MY GOD! IRAN WON'T HAVE AN ENEMY NEXT DOOR!

It may bring stability to the region, that's what.

Volkov

Volkov

Austin, TX
OLD SKOOL

NOV 20, 2007 12:55 PM

it may bring stability to the reigon....or it might touch off a larger conflict between the shiite central iran/iraq and their surrounding Sunni neighbors. and of course Iran is exactly who we want taking over any other country. Their regime is so nice and friendly. whatever

Basra and Southern Iraq was an entirely different zone with its own problems, but it was certainly more secure than Anbar or the Baghdad area. Part of that security came from the overwhelming presence of the Sadr forces who pretty much kept all dissent in check.

anyhow, I do think the Iraqi people benefit from our being over there. They may have (ok almost certainly) benefitted more if we had a president other than Emporer Shrub who would have more diligently pursued a diplomatic solution/dialogue with Iraq.

and when it comes down to it, our presence in Iraq has always been about our own national interest in keeping a large force in the reigon. Saudi Arabia was getting to be a pain in the ass, so now we have Iraq to settle into Germany 1945 style. that's been the plan from the outset and that's what I forsee happening. The establishment of permanant military bases out in Anbar and maybe up in Kurdish land. That's where we'll eventually pull back to. but that's still either a long way off...or coming about sometime early in 2009.

CyberEdZ

CyberEdZ

United Kingdom
January 2005

NOV 20, 2007 03:48 PM

Crusader1991 said:
Southern Iraq and the British area ia a different ball game...can't compare it to the rest of the country.

If we leave...Iran enters...then what people?

Remember 60 years ago when Germany and Japan were our biggest enemies...now they are our best friends. Look at what those relationships have down and imagine Iraq 60 years from now.


Well, actually Germany was our enemy - you kept on trading with them, right up to the attack on Pearl Harbor. Coca Cola even advertised on the back of Hitler Youth magazines. Until you eventually entered the war, then stopped selling them the syrup, forcing them [Nazi Germany] to make their own fizzy pop. Which they called Fanta. Ever heard of it ??

There is one vital difference between that situation and this, and it's called Islam. The US's failure to properly understand Islam is the reason why they're in such a mess.

The *really* scary part is, there is no winning this war. Forget a Universal Declaration of Human Rights - it's incompatible with Islam. As is modern, 'Western' forms of democracy. The quicker you realise that, the sooner your kids will stop dying.

Zarth

Zarth

Seattle, WA
December 2004

NOV 20, 2007 03:59 PM

I don't even know where to begin with that.

In this corner, you've got a dude so blinded by neoliberal ideology that he actually thinks the comparison between occupied Iraq and occupied Germany is a fair one, and in the other corner, an out-and-out old-school bigot.

SPOILERS! (Click to view)
Ladies and gentlemen . . .

LET'S GET RRREADY TO RRRRUUUUMMBBBBBBLLLLLLLLE!!!!!!!!

CyberEdZ

CyberEdZ

United Kingdom
January 2005

NOV 20, 2007 04:23 PM

Was the 'bigot' remark referring to me ?? If so, an explanation of why would be an interesting read. Ever read the Universal Islamic Declaration of Human Rights ?? Noticed the not-so-subtle variances 'twixt it and the UN's (Judaeo-Christian) version ??

At no point did I say that Islamic countries should embrace democracy, by the way. That's the USA's job. I have no problem with them being theocracies, oligarchies, kingdoms, whatever they want. As Winston Churchill observed, democracy is the worst form of government, apart from all the rest. Particularly yours. I doubt very much that a new state following the democratic form we have here in the UK would pass the US's muster. I like our constitution just the way it is. Those parts of Europe you didn't foist your version on to feel much the same way.

Zarth

Zarth

Seattle, WA
December 2004

NOV 20, 2007 04:36 PM

CyberEdZ said:
Was the 'bigot' remark referring to me ??


Yes.

CyberEdZ said:
If so, an explanation of why would be an interesting read. Ever read the Universal Islamic Declaration of Human Rights ?? Noticed the not-so-subtle variances 'twixt it and the UN's (Judaeo-Christian) version ??


No, and I couldn't care less about it. Do you actually know any Muslims? I do. Pretty much all of them are upright citizens who work hard, pay their taxes, and vote. Like any other American. In fact, they tend to be a lot less heavy-handed about their religion than the Christians I know, and a lot of them are more politically and even socially liberal.

Now, that's anecdotal, obviously. And it doesn't address countries outside the United States (though, to my certain knowledge, there are major politically liberal movements in many Islamic countries - they're being cracked down on in Pakistan by the secular military authorities even now). But you said "Islam" itself is "incompatible" with "human rights." The fact that I know any Muslims who don't feel their religion is incompatible with human rights is enough to disprove your blanket statement.

Which was, by the way, bigoted.

Chainlink

Chainlink

Dickeyville, WI
August 2005

NOV 20, 2007 04:42 PM

CyberEdZ said:
Was the 'bigot' remark referring to me ?? If so, an explanation of why would be an interesting read. Ever read the Universal Islamic Declaration of Human Rights ?? Noticed the not-so-subtle variances 'twixt it and the UN's (Judaeo-Christian) version ??

At no point did I say that Islamic countries should embrace democracy, by the way. That's the USA's job. I have no problem with them being theocracies, oligarchies, kingdoms, whatever they want. As Winston Churchill observed, democracy is the worst form of government, apart from all the rest. Particularly yours. I doubt very much that a new state following the democratic form we have here in the UK would pass the US's muster. I like our constitution just the way it is. Those parts of Europe you didn't foist your version on to feel much the same way.




I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the part where you suggest that Islam AND democracy are incompatible with human rights is not just bigoted, it's pretty retarded. But I'll look forward to Zarths response.


Edit : Shit, that Zarth dude is fast.

Zarth

Zarth

Seattle, WA
December 2004

NOV 20, 2007 04:45 PM

Chainlink said:
Edit : Shit, that Zarth dude is fast.


Great, broadcast it on the internet, why don't you? I said it never happened to me before.

If you'd just give me another chance . . .

Chainlink

Chainlink

Dickeyville, WI
August 2005

NOV 20, 2007 05:04 PM

CyberEdZ said:
Well, actually Germany was our enemy - .



Yeah, you're welcome btw.

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