There's a popular assumption that one day, maybe soon, we'll "run out of oil". Reference is made to claims that we have perhaps 20 years' worth of reserves left to expoilt.
Such beliefs are fallacious. The known reserves are a reflection not of how much oil is left, but of how much of the earth it has been economic to explore in search of oil, based on forecasts of the oil price, the costs of exploration and the likelihood of finding a new source. Claims of impending oil (or coal, or copper, or ...) exhaustion have been repeatedly shown to be mistaken. In the case of oil, prices have been high for short spells, but there's not been a long term upward trend indicating increasing oil scarcity.
Can we continue to be sanguine? Once the "troubles in Iraq" are over (presuming for sake of argument that will happen sometime soon), will oil prices stabilize at some reasonable level?
Paul Krugman [NYT subscription required, or read it here] claims that low oil prices might soon be a thing of the past. Big technical achievements -- doing more with less -- have already been achieved, after the 1970s price highs. There may well be more oil to be found, but there is also serious growth in emerging markets, countries whose appetites for oil will only increase.
Likely outcome? World demand will grow faster than supply, resulting in increasing scarcity and higher prices.
Time to get ready.
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Comments
Sonntag
Atlanta, GA
August 2003
MAY 07, 2004 10:21 AM
Chest_Rockwell
Los Angeles, CA
March 2004
MAY 07, 2004 10:22 AM
Sonntag
Atlanta, GA
August 2003
MAY 07, 2004 10:28 AM
iamblades2
Louisville, KY
April 2004
MAY 07, 2004 10:32 AM
Holden_Caulfield
Ann Arbor, MI
April 2004
MAY 07, 2004 11:56 AM
Sonntag
Atlanta, GA
August 2003
MAY 07, 2004 12:03 PM
Holden_Caulfield
Ann Arbor, MI
April 2004
MAY 07, 2004 12:07 PM
Sonntag
Atlanta, GA
August 2003
MAY 07, 2004 12:11 PM
Holden_Caulfield
Ann Arbor, MI
April 2004
MAY 07, 2004 12:41 PM
Sonntag
Atlanta, GA
August 2003
MAY 07, 2004 12:57 PM
KlikKlak
San Francisco, CA
April 2004
MAY 07, 2004 12:58 PM
pharaoh
Los Angeles, CA
August 2002
MAY 07, 2004 01:00 PM
Sonntag
Atlanta, GA
August 2003
MAY 07, 2004 01:03 PM
iamblades2
Louisville, KY
April 2004
MAY 07, 2004 01:04 PM
mindmeld23
Beverly Hills, CA
September 2002
MAY 07, 2004 01:09 PM
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