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  • FRIDAY MAY 7 2004 10:13 AM

The End of Cheap Oil?

There's a popular assumption that one day, maybe soon, we'll "run out of oil". Reference is made to claims that we have perhaps 20 years' worth of reserves left to expoilt.

Such beliefs are fallacious. The known reserves are a reflection not of how much oil is left, but of how much of the earth it has been economic to explore in search of oil, based on forecasts of the oil price, the costs of exploration and the likelihood of finding a new source. Claims of impending oil (or coal, or copper, or ...) exhaustion have been repeatedly shown to be mistaken. In the case of oil, prices have been high for short spells, but there's not been a long term upward trend indicating increasing oil scarcity.

Can we continue to be sanguine? Once the "troubles in Iraq" are over (presuming for sake of argument that will happen sometime soon), will oil prices stabilize at some reasonable level?

Paul Krugman [NYT subscription required, or read it here] claims that low oil prices might soon be a thing of the past. Big technical achievements -- doing more with less -- have already been achieved, after the 1970s price highs. There may well be more oil to be found, but there is also serious growth in emerging markets, countries whose appetites for oil will only increase.

Likely outcome? World demand will grow faster than supply, resulting in increasing scarcity and higher prices.

Time to get ready.

 

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Comments
Sonntag

Sonntag

Atlanta, GA
August 2003

MAY 07, 2004 10:21 AM

China's usage is soaring right now. China's ongoing development is cause alone to keep prices high and higher.

Chest_Rockwell

Chest_Rockwell

Los Angeles, CA
March 2004

MAY 07, 2004 10:22 AM

So you're telling me to rethink purchasing an H2?

iamblades2

iamblades2

Louisville, KY
April 2004

MAY 07, 2004 10:32 AM

China's economy is growing insanely fast, it will be a huge draw on the world's oil supply in the near future.

Of course, a developed economy can afford much higher prices than a developing one.

It's gonna be an interesting century.

Holden_Caulfield

Holden_Caulfield

Ann Arbor, MI
April 2004

MAY 07, 2004 11:56 AM

Perhaps our European members (or other internationals) should chime in as to how much a gallon (litre) of gasoline costs nowadays where they live? And why it costs so much?

Sonntag

Sonntag

Atlanta, GA
August 2003

MAY 07, 2004 12:03 PM

Holden_Caulfield said:
Perhaps our European members (or other internationals) should chime in as to how much a gallon (litre) of gasoline costs nowadays where they live? And why it costs so much?



Gawd damn you!
Boy, don't you know cheap gas is our god given right as red blooded 'merkans?

Holden_Caulfield

Holden_Caulfield

Ann Arbor, MI
April 2004

MAY 07, 2004 12:07 PM

jakob_sweven said:

Holden_Caulfield said:
Perhaps our European members (or other internationals) should chime in as to how much a gallon (litre) of gasoline costs nowadays where they live? And why it costs so much?



Gawd damn you!
Boy, don't you know cheap gas is our god given right as red blooded 'merkans?



Don't worry. The combination of Oil Cartel price increases and inflation will push gasoline to the $3.00 range eventually. That's when many SUV drivers are really gonna sweat it out.

Sonntag

Sonntag

Atlanta, GA
August 2003

MAY 07, 2004 12:11 PM

Holden_Caulfield said:

jakob_sweven said:

Holden_Caulfield said:
Perhaps our European members (or other internationals) should chime in as to how much a gallon (litre) of gasoline costs nowadays where they live? And why it costs so much?



Gawd damn you!
Boy, don't you know cheap gas is our god given right as red blooded 'merkans?



Don't worry. The combination of Oil Cartel price increases and inflation will push gasoline to the $3.00 range eventually. That's when many SUV drivers are really gonna sweat it out.



Well Saudi Arabia has a lot ah oil and them god-less sumsabitches were the ones be-hind 9/11. See where I'm goin' right har?

Holden_Caulfield

Holden_Caulfield

Ann Arbor, MI
April 2004

MAY 07, 2004 12:41 PM

Yeah. We'll just have to watch Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit 911" to see how it all turns out. That is, if it is distributed before the Nov. election. smile

Sonntag

Sonntag

Atlanta, GA
August 2003

MAY 07, 2004 12:57 PM

ooops.

[Edited on May 07, 2004 by jakob_sweven]

KlikKlak

KlikKlak

San Francisco, CA
April 2004

MAY 07, 2004 12:58 PM

first smack, now oil!
whtevr willa doo shocked

pharaoh

pharaoh

Los Angeles, CA
August 2002

MAY 07, 2004 01:00 PM

i hope all the oil runs out. ALL OF IT.

Sonntag

Sonntag

Atlanta, GA
August 2003

MAY 07, 2004 01:03 PM

pharaoh said:
i hope all the oil runs out. ALL OF IT.



No you don't.

The U.S. food supply, both farming and distribution, is built entirely around cheap oil. Without it, food prices spike. Take milk for instance, which is very energy intensive to produce and get to the grocer.

iamblades2

iamblades2

Louisville, KY
April 2004

MAY 07, 2004 01:04 PM

I predict OPEC will completely fall apart in the next few years. None of the OPEC countries pay much attention at all to the production limits.

AFAICT, Saudi Arabia is just using OPEC to shield it's own production problems from public view. Saudi Arabia likes to act like it can produce enough oil for the entire world without breaking a sweat, but the fact is, they are having trouble just keeping production moving at all. The oil business in SA relies HEAVILY on foriegn workers, and with the current threat of terrorism, it is just not worthwhile for western workers to go work there.

OPEC will not be able to survive the competition that is coming, especially from russia.

I agree with the general idea that oil will continue to climb in price, but opec will have nothing to do with it, in the long term anyway.

mindmeld23

mindmeld23

Beverly Hills, CA
September 2002

MAY 07, 2004 01:09 PM

heheh.... ~ milk ~

looking into any sort of oil-less energy source is thinking outside of the "reality" box.

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