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China Kicks Off New Space Arms Race?

FRIDAY JANUARY 19 2007 10:00 AM

Submitted by legionnaire. Edited By Rahodeb.

TAGS: china, space, satellite

Most people associate space weapons with the fantastical vaporware that characterized much of the Reagan-era Strategic Defense Initiative, or "Star Wars" program, primarily envisioning a combination of ground and space based weapons systems designed to thwart a Soviet nuclear attack and assure American supremacy above the planet as well as on it. Part of that weapons program included technology specifically designed to destroy orbiting satellites - a prescient bit of technological savvy given the relative paucity of military satellites at the time, though now the American military, at least, has become highly dependent on satellites for a variety of its activities. The technology was shelved, however, when the last test in 1985 showed that destroying satellites would pose an unacceptable risk to other military and commercial satellites already in orbit, a risk that has likely increased given the huge number of man-made satellites currently in orbit, though alternative means of disrupting satellites may still be under investigation by military research agenices.

China apparently is less concerned with the risk that orbiting space debris poses, and took a first step into space-based warfare yesterday when they demonstrated the ability to destroy a satellite currently in orbit.

The Chinese military used a ground-based missile to hit and destroy one of its aging satellites orbiting more than 500 miles in space last week -- a high-stakes test demonstrating China's ability to target regions of space that are home to U.S. spy satellites and space-based missile defense systems.

The test of anti-satellite technology is believed to be the first of its kind in two decades by any nation and raised concerns about the vulnerability of U.S. satellites and a possible arms race in space.
[...]
Michael Krepon, president emeritus of the Henry L. Stimson Center, another nonprofit involved with security issues in Washington, called the Chinese test a predictable -- and unfortunate -- response to U.S. space policies.

"The Chinese are telling the Pentagon that they don't own space," he said. "We can play this game, too, and we can play it dirtier than you."

Krepon said the Chinese test "blows a whole through the Bush administration reasoning behind not talking to anybody about space arms control -- that there is no space arms race. It looks like there is one at this point."


China has been rushing headlong into a buildup and modernization of its military and this may just be the latest step in that progression. Poised to become the next world superpower, dominance (or at least competitiveness) in space would seem to go hand in hand with that aspiration.

Another arms race in space would be just as costly and pointless as the one with the USSR - and no post hoc justifications for trying to outspend China the way hawks now lionize the unprecedented spending on the Reagan era would seem to justify the tremendous expenditure required for both sides when there are so many better uses for those resources.

This problem should be nipped in the bud, it's time for a comprehensive treaty banning space based weapons for everyone, including the US, before this spirals out of control.

 

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NickFaust

NickFaust

USA
April 2004

JAN 19, 2007 11:13 AM

China is projected to be the SINGLE superpower on the globe by 2030. Seems to me, they are right on track.

Time to buy those Rosetta Stone Chinese I&II disks while demand is still low.

Adroitbeing

Adroitbeing

I'm lost
September 2003

JAN 19, 2007 11:21 AM

They are a patient country, waiting since the 15th century to return to a world "dominance" that reigned for several centuries before taking a small 500-year break.

Smart people those Chinese, electing to avoid allowing ideologues to spread their ambitions beyond their own borders.

OctEgon

OctEgon

Tustin, CA
July 2005

JAN 19, 2007 11:33 AM

Cold War 2: The Coldening

whitepuma

whitepuma

Australia
March 2004

JAN 19, 2007 12:09 PM

NickFaust said:
China is projected to be the SINGLE superpower on the globe by 2030. Seems to me, they are right on track.



Dont know about this I would have considered them one now actually and if if was not for the yanks having bases and carrier groups around the world giving the ability to launch an attack or be knocking on someones door in less then 6 hrs the US would not rate as a super power at all.

dem_z

dem_z

United Kingdom
June 2004

JAN 19, 2007 12:24 PM

NASA currently tracks about 11,000 items larger than 10 cm, and there's over 100,000 items between 1 cm and 10 cm up there.

I don't think PlanetES launched with the intent of cleaning up Chinese military tests. frown

NickFaust

NickFaust

USA
April 2004

JAN 19, 2007 01:00 PM

whitepuma said:

NickFaust said:
China is projected to be the SINGLE superpower on the globe by 2030. Seems to me, they are right on track.



Dont know about this I would have considered them one now actually and if if was not for the yanks having bases and carrier groups around the world giving the ability to launch an attack or be knocking on someones door in less then 6 hrs the US would not rate as a super power at all.



Okay, well thanks for defining what a superpower is and why China is not one currently.

Now. why are you disagreeing with me again?

quagmirething

quagmirething

I'm lost
June 2005

JAN 19, 2007 01:03 PM

China isn't aiming for another cold war by matching the US. The plan is to have enough of a military that they can't be painlessly messed with. So rather than thousands of nukes they've built hundreds, the US would clearly "win" if it came to an exchange but China has enough to make sure that won't happen. People can over focus on numbers sometimes, so this test is a way of reminding them that having ten times the weapons in a field isn't all that great.

smithers_jones

smithers_jones

Los Angeles, CA
November 2003

JAN 19, 2007 01:18 PM

Given that the US Air Force's strategic plan includes the building of space-based offensive weapons, it seems only rational that a China would want to have the capability to destroy such weapons.

pb

pb

Iraq
December 2003

JAN 19, 2007 02:06 PM

i think there's already some sort of treaty in effect banning the "weaponization" of space. i'm pretty sure directed energy weapons, projectile weapons, armed space stations, emp bursters, etc are banned by this treaty.

the treaty doesn't, however, include recon or other sats with uses to civilians and government. countries other than the US are free to put up as many orbital birds as they want, but so far the US and a few of its allies are the only states to have the technical skill and economic strength to do so in numbers significant enough to be "dominant." that's why the US has the "satellite superiority" it leverages in both the military and civilian realms.

this thing with China is different from what you're implying here, however. the weapon is a ballistic missile much like an SCUD or ICBM in that once you press the button, it's going to go where you aimed it and where environmental forces push it while in transit. it'll come back down to earth whether it hits something or not. the big "holy crap" about this whole deal is the fact that the US is surprised and concerned that China now has the technical know-how to hit a sat in orbit. it's not a space-based weapons platform from which to launch attacks.

as far as the treaty referenced above, shooting ballistic projectile weapons into space isn't expressly forbidden (i don't think so, at least) just as gathering intelligence via spy sat isn't.

i like how you try to make this into a "military: BAD" "republicans: BAD" sort of commentary, though. i especially like how you make the jump from the Chinese gearing up to shoot satellites out of the sky into into a statement about how the US shouldn't be able to weaponize space. good one.

also, one could make the point that the Cold War was won through economic means rather than with armed conflict. the USSR broke the bank trying to keep up with the US which caused the chain reaction that eventually led to its downfall. the arms race was simply the means the US government used as the expensive commodity that killed the USSR treasury. not saying i think more nukes pointed all over the place is a good thing and i wish they'd had found a better way, but, in a sense, it wasn't a total and complete loss.

smithers_jones

smithers_jones

Los Angeles, CA
November 2003

JAN 19, 2007 02:53 PM

pb said:
i think there's already some sort of treaty in effect banning the "weaponization" of space.



You think wrongly. There is a 1967 Outerspace Treaty that prohibits the placing WMDs in space. The ABM Treaty had prohibitions against placing weapons in space but the US withdrew from that in 2002. China and Russia have drafted language for a treaty banning space weapons. The US refuses to enter into a dialouge on the issue.

Colinism

Colinism

Atlanta, GA
July 2005

JAN 19, 2007 03:08 PM

NickFaust said:
China is projected to be the SINGLE superpower on the globe by 2030. Seems to me, they are right on track.

Time to buy those Rosetta Stone Chinese I&II disks while demand is still low.



Projected where Nick?

NickFaust

NickFaust

USA
April 2004

JAN 19, 2007 03:41 PM

Colinism said:

NickFaust said:
China is projected to be the SINGLE superpower on the globe by 2030. Seems to me, they are right on track.

Time to buy those Rosetta Stone Chinese I&II disks while demand is still low.



Projected where Nick?



Sorry, I refuse to do your reading for you. But you can start with The Economist, of course you will have to read about 4 years of back issues to catch up.

Or you could read this and Kevin Phillips cites quite a bit of compelling stuff in his book.

It is disputable of course, especially by those myopic folks who insist that all is well with the US eoonomy. You know those folks who think 20 trillion in debt is no big deal.

NickFaust

NickFaust

USA
April 2004

JAN 19, 2007 03:45 PM

smithers_jones said:

pb said:
i think there's already some sort of treaty in effect banning the "weaponization" of space.



You think wrongly. There is a 1967 Outerspace Treaty that prohibits the placing WMDs in space. The ABM Treaty had prohibitions against placing weapons in space but the US withdrew from that in 2002. China and Russia have drafted language for a treaty banning space weapons. The US refuses to enter into a dialouge on the issue.



I think he may be thinking of this: National Space Policy in which Bush states that space belongs to us and nobody better fuck with it.

Colinism

Colinism

Atlanta, GA
July 2005

JAN 19, 2007 03:45 PM

NickFaust said:

Colinism said:

NickFaust said:
China is projected to be the SINGLE superpower on the globe by 2030. Seems to me, they are right on track.

Time to buy those Rosetta Stone Chinese I&II disks while demand is still low.



Projected where Nick?



Sorry, I refuse to do your reading for you. But you can start with The Economist, of course you will have to read about 4 years of back issues to catch up.

Or you could read this and Kevin Phillips cites quite a bit of compelling stuff in his book.

It is disputable of course, especially by those myopic folks who insist that all is well with the US eoonomy. You know those folks who think 20 trillion in debt is no big deal.



I just wanted the links to read nick the attitude was not necessary.

NickFaust

NickFaust

USA
April 2004

JAN 19, 2007 03:47 PM

Colinism said:

NickFaust said:

Colinism said:

NickFaust said:
China is projected to be the SINGLE superpower on the globe by 2030. Seems to me, they are right on track.

Time to buy those Rosetta Stone Chinese I&II disks while demand is still low.



Projected where Nick?



Sorry, I refuse to do your reading for you. But you can start with The Economist, of course you will have to read about 4 years of back issues to catch up.

Or you could read this and Kevin Phillips cites quite a bit of compelling stuff in his book.

It is disputable of course, especially by those myopic folks who insist that all is well with the US eoonomy. You know those folks who think 20 trillion in debt is no big deal.



I just wanted the links to read nick the attitude was not necessary.



Then say that - otherwise you come off as your typical "show me ths cites so I can say it isn't so" self.

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