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  • FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 1 2006 9:30 PM

Rats Jumping Ship

Less Americans are now calling themselves Republicans while more are calling themselves Democrats, according to a new Rasmussen Poll. Only 31.9% claim they are affiliated with the GOP, down from 37.2% in October 2004. Meanwhile, the Democrats are blowing up! In January 36.1% said they were affiliated with the Democrats but now that number has swelled to a massive 37.3%. Overall Democrats have gained five percentage points on Republicans since January 2004.

But the number of Americans who are declaring themselves independent is also growing. According to the poll, the number of unaffiliated Americans has increased to 30.8%. Rasmussen only began collecting this data in January 2004 and that is the highest percentage yet.

Not surprisingly the Democrats are gaining momentum to capture the House in November. They only need take 15 seats to control the House and currently of the 39 “most competitive” races, Republicans hold 35.

The Democrats need to gain 6 seats in the Senate but Republicans are holding them off. The Democrats have to win at least two races where Republicans are now favored. But several Republican Senators are in trouble.

Among likely voters, Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is trailing Democrat Bob Casey by 18 percentage points, Ohio Senator Mike DeWine is behind Democrat Sherrod Brown by 6 points and Montana Senator Conrad Burns trails Democrat John Tester by 3 points. Missouri Senator Jim Talent is tied with his Democratic opponent among registered voters.

Currently the Republicans are likely to walk away from the November election with 50 Senate seats, while the Democrats look to hold 47. 3 are considered toss-ups. Those will probably be stolen.

 

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Comments
attn_ho

attn_ho

Brooklyn, NY
February 2004

SEP 01, 2006 10:06 PM

aaaaugh! lack of... sarcasm.... in article....vital as precious.... oxygen! need.... to live!

i mean, excellent article FTR!

Dreu

dreu

USA
August 2006

SEP 01, 2006 10:41 PM

That trend will probably end in '08 when another lame-ass presidential candidate is served up.

MschfMayhemSoap

MschfMayhemSoap

Phoenix, AZ
April 2006

SEP 01, 2006 11:14 PM

Traitors!!! Traitors all of them!!!

SPOILERS! (Click to view)
There attm.... enough sarcasom for you?

dufsmashXIII

dufsmashXIII

Eureka, IL
December 2005

SEP 02, 2006 12:48 AM

god help us

Princelogos

Princelogos

USA
November 2005

SEP 02, 2006 01:03 AM

Oh well;..... another election without an erection.

malkav11

malkav11

Saint Paul, MN
July 2003

SEP 02, 2006 01:43 AM

Oh please. Please go away, Santorum. That alone would make my day.

Kundalini

Kundalini

Kalamazoo, MI
June 2004

SEP 02, 2006 05:12 AM

Too bad that none of the polls will matter in 2008 when Jeb Bush becomes our next president.

formerviking

formerviking

Denver, PA
May 2006

SEP 02, 2006 07:58 AM

Kundalini said:
Too bad that none of the polls will matter in 2008 when Jeb Bush becomes our next president.



Do you honestly think folks would vote for another Bush immediately after the mess this one made ? Or is my sarcasm detector off kilter this morning ?

alter_ego

alter_ego

Eau Claire, WI
October 2005

SEP 02, 2006 09:15 AM

There is no real trend here. If you look at the data linked from the original article you'll see that October 2004 was picked in order to create the illusion of a trend.

If I were to choose November 2005 as the start point, I'd see: Dem -1.8%, Rep -2.2, Ind +4.0

Or let's look at January 2004: Dem -0.8, Rep -2.7, Ind +3.5

With a +/- poll error of 1%, you can draw your own conclusions. I conclude that people are tired of both parties' antics.

NickFaust

NickFaust

USA
April 2004

SEP 02, 2006 09:19 AM

The real story here is that there are modest, but increasing numbers of people disaffected with both parties and registering independent.

SignalNoise

SignalNoise

USA
February 2004

SEP 02, 2006 10:09 AM

the declaration of being "independent" is usually more of an illusion than anything else. people may not claim to be in a party (and there could be lots of reasons for that - including just wanting to appear sophistimicated) - but they probably *do* vote along pretty reliable partisan lines. now, that might just be about ideology too. but chances are partisanship is strong, but folks just aren't aware of it/don't want to admit it.

SockPuppet

SockPuppet

I'm lost
July 2006

SEP 02, 2006 11:38 AM

SignalNoise said:
the declaration of being "independent" is usually more of an illusion than anything else. people may not claim to be in a party (and there could be lots of reasons for that - including just wanting to appear sophistimicated) - but they probably *do* vote along pretty reliable partisan lines. now, that might just be about ideology too. but chances are partisanship is strong, but folks just aren't aware of it/don't want to admit it.



So, does that mean that FTR's sarcasm is just getting more sophisticated? biggrin

Necia

Necia

San Francisco, CA
August 2005

SEP 02, 2006 12:05 PM

SignalNoise said:
the declaration of being "independent" is usually more of an illusion than anything else. people may not claim to be in a party (and there could be lots of reasons for that - including just wanting to appear sophistimicated) - but they probably *do* vote along pretty reliable partisan lines. now, that might just be about ideology too. but chances are partisanship is strong, but folks just aren't aware of it/don't want to admit it.



+1

fountainofdreams

fountainofdreams

Batavia, IL
January 2005

SEP 02, 2006 12:59 PM

NickFaust said:
The real story here is that there are modest, but increasing numbers of people disaffected with both parties and registering independent.



yea, that's kinda what i take from it. no news there.

emotedcreations

emotedcreations

Germany
July 2006

SEP 02, 2006 05:21 PM

Does anyone have a Gallup Poll reflecting this trend?

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