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  • MONDAY JANUARY 21 2008 10:00 AM

Macworld Thoughts

Last week San Francisco played host to the Macworld Conference & Expo, the culmination of weeks of rumors and speculation that had the gadget-obsessed teetering on the brink of sanity.

Fake Steve Jobs said it best:

The suspense is killing you, right?

So I was just hanging out in the executive sweat lodge with Jonny and we were laughing about how all the fanboys are just salivating and drooling and peeing in their pants this week wondering what we're going to announce next week. Jonny says that in the world of an Apple true believer this week, the week before Macworld, is either the best week of the year, or the worst, or both. He says you're all like a bunch of kids on Christmas Eve, all amped up on sugary treats and unable to sleep.



If you're pressed for time, the luscious Veronica Belmont (a title given to her by FSJ which I am further propagating) posted a video of the keynote, compressing the 90 minute presentation into 60 seconds.



The big announcement was of course the MacBook Air, which I found a little underwhelming as I really couldn't see its niche. The general consensus is that you can tell what Apple will release by trying to find holes in its product line. It's clear that there was a need for a device more portable than a MacBook and more functional than the iPhone. The industry was speculating everything from a sub-notebook, to a tablet, to a combination thereof.

It was assumed that after the recent release of the Eee PC by Asus, the Taiwanese manufacturer that supplies many of the components for Apple's laptops, that something similar would pop up with an Apple badge, nicer aesthetics, and a premium price tag.

Instead what we received was not so much a sub-notebook, but an anorexic MacBook. The laptop has a similar footprint to Apple's current laptops, yet could readily be considered a downgrade in almost every way except weight, thickness, and the multi-touch track pad. Merlin Mann of 43folders hit the nail on the head: "MacBook Air got small on the least interesting axis to me."

So who is this for? It's not meant to be a primary machine, and even as a secondary machine it doesn't deliver as much as a MacBook Pro for slightly more money or the MacBook for considerably less. It's great "if you're kinda rich and want a fourth computer," quipped Merlin.

That's pretty much the target audience. "I already ordered mine" said Dave Sifry, founder of Technorati, hours after the keynote. It seems if you want a Mac, aren't too worried about the price tag or its inherent drawbacks compared to other laptops in its class (a travel laptop that doesn't allow you to change batteries?) then this is the laptop for you.

Gizmodo seems to have the same view, exemplified by this excerpt from an interview with Mike Abary, senior vice president of VAIO product marketing:

Sony had a similar vision for an ultraportable once, a carbon fiber notebook in 2004 called the X505 that eschewed the optical and was 0.3 inches thick (compared to 0.16 of the Air) at its thinnest segment. It wasn't that well received, and research later pointed out that "Thinness is not the holy grail". Making something that thin and sexy cost it too much usability.

...

Ultra portables from Sony have evolved into the TZ, complete with LED backlight, a small but usable keyboard, plenty of ports and built in 3G data. So it is possible that Sony believes they are in many ways 4 years ahead of Apple in their understanding of what consumers want.

When the NYTimes pushed Jobs on the issues of limited storage, he responded, "Maybe this isn't the computer for you." I asked Mike who they thought the computer was for. "Beats me" was the initial reply, but came up with an answer: The extremely design conscious.


So there's your new Mac. Except Macworld really isn't about Macs anymore, is it? In fact, Macworld hasn't been about Macs for several years now thanks to Apple's resurgence in other markets.

Previous Macworld events had turned into iPod trade shows, with cases and accessories making up a significant chunk of the exhibitor list. Last year was completely devoid of Macs, with all attention being paid to the iPhone with a little Apple TV thrown in.

To give credit where it's due, there was more of a Mac presence this year. "I expected an iPhone show" said famous Photoshopper Bert Monroy while guest hosting on This Week in Tech, "but there was a return to a lot of Mac software". Leo Laporte, host of This Week in Tech agreed, "Microsoft released Office 2008, Intuit was here" referring to two companies that have historically been dragging their feet updating their Mac software.

There was also a respectable showing of Mac games, actually warranting their own pavilion this year. Aspyr Media won a Macworld Best of Show for its port of Guitar Hero III, and also demoed The Sims. CCP Games showed off EVE Online, and EA showed off Spore, though sadly you could only create characters. Not an impressive showing, but it was nice to see.

Aside from that however it's clear that Apple is focusing away from the Mac. In the last five years there have only been three new Macs introduced to the market; the MacBook Air this week, the MacBook in 2006, and the Mac mini in 2005. Despite changes to their names and internal components, Apple's professional laptops and desktops have remained fundamentally unchanged since 2003. Five years is a long time in the computer industry, and even longer for Apple.

The other announcements made by Apple this year further reflect this, with software updates to both the iPhone and Apple TV, the stars of last year's Expo - more underwhelming news from Apple, the updates having been long rumored and lacking in anything groundbreaking.

Movie rentals at $2.99 for old titles, $3.99 for new releases, and $4.99 for HD titles are coming to the iTunes Store and the Apple TV. The prices and selection are competitive compared to Microsoft's Xbox Live Marketplace, but fall short Netflix's offering.

Netflix stole some of Apple's thunder when it announced unlimited streaming access to all of its unlimited plan customers. Netflix's unlimited plans start at $8.99, which means for less than the price of two HD movies on iTunes you can have unlimited streaming access on Netflix. Netflix also offers 6000 titles for streaming, six times more than Apple's for-rent selection.

It seems then that Netflix is right on Apple's tail, offering more bang for your buck with similar services. However, other companies that have tried to compete with Apple have failed in one crucial area: getting content away from the computer and onto televisions and portable devices. Apple has the Apple TV and an install base of 100+ million iPods and 4 million iPhones. Netflix's service doesn't event work on Macs, much less other devices.

Netflix did make an announcement earlier in the month about a set top box built by LG Electronics that will deliver movies to HDTVs at no additional cost, save the price of the box itself. However it won't be available until at least the second quarter, and is still a far cry from Apple's offering.

Engadget sees this as a sign that the two companies, despite having similar strategies for bringing digital media to the consumer, are aiming at different audiences.

After speaking with Netflix's Reed Hastings, it was found that the vast majority of its streamable content was "older," and considering that users of this service can never look forward to brand new releases being available, the cost (i.e. free to most mail-in subscribers) makes sense. As for Apple, it's able to focus on crowds who are looking for a more robust, generally fresher selection, but of course, you'll pay the premium each time you indulge. Furthermore, Netflix has yet to make transferring video to any display / device other than your monitor easy, and while an LG STB is indeed on the horizon, the differences in content selection are still likely to lure separate eyes.


One thing remains clear, with products from Apple, Netflix, TiVo (via a collaboration with Amazon's Unbox), Microsoft, and the critically well received upstart VUDU, digital distribution has become a viable alternative to traditional outlets like TV and hard copy rentals and this makes the Writers Guild strike all the more poignant.

Our own FearTheReaper had this to say about the recent announcements.

The Apple TV deal has huge implications for the writers strike.

The studios have been claiming that this here internet is just too confounding and complicated; meaning they just don't know how they are going to deliver movies and film to viewers in the future.

Turns out they knew all along. They were clearly hoping we would cave before this announcement, so they could walk away with billions of dollars for years to come. Now all the cards are on the table. We know what they were up to and we know their business model.

There has been a lot of activity this week in Hollywood. Deals being cancelled, the DGA possibly negotiating a deal. All very interesting timing with this announcement.

Apple TV is clearly the future. And now it is here. And we want some of that sweet cash.


But Apple TV's newfound features aren't just a game changer for current studio produced content. They lower the hurdle for new user-generated content as well. Apple TV now allows you to subscribe to podcasts without the need for a computer at all, leap frogging TiVo's own announcement about supporting HD podcasts later this quarter.

There was a strong focus on podcast training at Macworld this year. An entire studio was set up for the purpose of podcast production. Dozens of sessions were made available to attendees on how to raise the quality of production, how to connect with musicians and other artists to collaborate on projects, and how to monetize and market what you produce.

We're likely to see this trend continue as the line between podcasts and traditional programming becomes blurred. Again FTR offered some poignant thoughts.

Only a matter of time. Yesterday we had all the picketers in one location and EVERY writer I talked to was making a show for the web. Tons and tons of good stuff coming.

The studios have already killed themselves.


There are already several well-produced shorts that exist only on the internet, and with the current mood of content producers towards studios, this strike could be the best thing that ever happened to digital distribution.

Another part of Macworld this year that had absolutely nothing to do with Macs was Web 2.0's presence. Pownce, the microblogging social network, held its launch party on Wednesday, celebrating its launch on January 22. Meanwhile, TechCrunch held its inaugural Crunchies, an award ceremony celebrating internet startups and innovators on Friday.

"I'm surprised there aren't more Web 2.0 companies exhibiting this year," said blogger Robert Scoble, "Google was one of the most popular booths." Indeed it was, and that was only partly due to them giving out Google socks, the only swag I relented on. As the line between desktop applications and web applications blurs we will see more exhibitors showing web only products.

It's clear that this show has become more than a gathering of Apple fanboys drooling over the latest toys from their favorite company. Just as Steve Jobs has transformed Apple from a computer manufacturer to a vehicle for digital production and distribution, so has the conference and the people who attend it.

AceT apologizes for the tardiness of this article, he was excitedly doing things and meeting people you probably couldn't care less about.

 

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Comments
bean

bean

STAFF

Los Angeles, CA

JAN 21, 2008 10:17 AM

Yeah, I think the AppleTV-, iTunes-, and iPhone-related announcements this year are far more interesting (and more likely to have long-term implications) than the Macbook Air.

Also, it's unfortunate that CCP didn't get around to porting EVE Online until about 4 years after I might have cared.

_kungfoo_

_kungfoo_

Los Angeles, CA
April 2005

JAN 21, 2008 10:42 AM

AceT said:
...it's clear that Apple is focusing away from the Mac.



If you're taking the marketing perspective, yes, you could easily make that claim. However, as Jobs stated at All Things Digital, Apple sees itself as a software company. It's all about OS X. AppleTV, iPhone, iPods, Macs are all running OS X under their UIs. I'd say the focus has never been clearer.

Adroitbeing

Adroitbeing

I'm lost
September 2003

JAN 21, 2008 11:21 AM

I am really fascinated by the momentum gaining for online delivery of video because it seems to disrupt so many existing and emerging technologies and markets:
1. What happens to BlueRay and HD? Who needs them?
2. On the back of Chris Anderson's book, The Long Tail, it seems that production television content must change since the market is becoming so fragmented. I note that NBC's Jeff Zucker is proposing massive changes to how they will develop, produce, and market television content
3. How will the roles of writers change?

Being and old guy, I'm not terribly enthused by user generated content except for the occasional humor piece, but big changes seem to be coming.

Thanks AceT for a balanced report.

AceT

AceT

Portland, OR
April 2004

JAN 21, 2008 11:24 AM

Disclaimer: this was written Saturday night so the dates are a little off.

AceT

AceT

Portland, OR
April 2004

JAN 21, 2008 11:41 AM

Actually nevermind, I just reread it and it looks like punk fixed it. Also, I've been watching too many Scientology videos, how many times did I say things were "clear"?

Ferretbite

Ferretbite

Mexico
September 2006

JAN 21, 2008 12:14 PM

AceT said:
Actually nevermind, I just reread it and it looks like punk fixed it. Also, I've been watching too many Scientology videos, how many times did I say things were "clear"?



Not nearly as many as SJ said "great" or "incredible".

bean

bean

STAFF

Los Angeles, CA

JAN 21, 2008 12:15 PM

Adroitbeing said:
1. What happens to BlueRay and HD? Who needs them?


The general consensus (as of about a week before Macworld) is that the broadband infrastructure isn't sufficient to make HD-on-demand rentals realistic for most people, and that HD-on-demand is far enough away that Blu-Ray can serve as an appropriate stopgap once it is finally declared the winner in the format war and gets some more substantial offerings behind it.

I think it just got a hell of a lot closer, though, so we'll see what happens with that.

I know we were considering buying a Blu-Ray player, but now we'll probably pass on that in favor of AppleTV, assuming the selection in the store lives up to expectations.

malkav11

malkav11

Saint Paul, MN
July 2003

JAN 21, 2008 12:17 PM

I was going to say, not only is Netflix' streaming library pretty ancient and anemic in terms of quality of titles, but the video quality is quite poor at the Basic tier (their documentation suggests that my internet connection's active speed ought to put me in High, but the autodetect never does.) I can't imagine wanting to pay $4 a movie again for renting, but the streaming part of Netflix isn't why I have my subscription. I will say that it does pretty well for TV series, though.

The MacBook Air is definitely focusing on the wrong dimension. Being uber-thin is sexy and all, but I bet it's going to cause problems with typing and it's still too big in the other dimensions to be the sort of portable that I need from a portable computing device. (Insofar as I need a portable computing device. To be honest, I don't.)

Kindle

Kindle

Houston, TX
March 2006

JAN 21, 2008 12:31 PM

As much as I like the thinness of the MBA and eco-friendliness, I think that it's more of something that I would just play with in the Apple Store (unless of course I run into a crap load of money and I have nothing better to do with it, HA!). It's really kind of a pointless machine when it relies so heavily on another computer in order to use disks (unless you get the peripheral disk drive). The multi-touch, while great for the iPhone and iPod Touch, is kind of pointless on the MBA, though. Keyboard commands are far more effective and faster.

Like I mentioned in the group, I was really kind of disappointed that a new iPhone with a larger capacity wasn't released. It makes no sense to me that they max out the iPhone at 8GB and the iPod touch has a larger HD capacity than my MBP.

I'm digging Time Capsule. I wish I could afford one. Still want my iPhone though soo. . . that's a back burner thing.

I'm indifferent to ATV: Take 2. I didn't have an Apple TV in the first place and really didn't have much of a desire to get one. I don't watch much TV (if any) anyway.

mat8drb

mat8drb

United Kingdom
October 2004

JAN 21, 2008 12:33 PM

That was a great piece, and summed up my Macbook Air thoughts exactly, and offered great insight into the other stuff. smile

AceT

AceT

Portland, OR
April 2004

JAN 21, 2008 12:49 PM

bean said:

Adroitbeing said:
1. What happens to BlueRay and HD? Who needs them?


The general consensus (as of about a week before Macworld) is that the broadband infrastructure isn't sufficient to make HD-on-demand rentals realistic for most people, and that HD-on-demand is far enough away that Blu-Ray can serve as an appropriate stopgap once it is finally declared the winner in the format war and gets some more substantial offerings behind it.

I think it just got a hell of a lot closer, though, so we'll see what happens with that.

I know we were considering buying a Blu-Ray player, but now we'll probably pass on that in favor of AppleTV, assuming the selection in the store lives up to expectations.


I think a few people will be buying Blu-ray for their PS3s and such, but the majority are still going to be waiting for years before they buy HD optical media. DVDs look just fine up converted, and it's only been ten years since we last replaced our entire video library with a new format. So that will give the infrastructure a lot of time to implement a faster delivery system.

And this is entirely lazy, but people like on demand services. The average person doesn't rip all their DVDs to an external hard drive so they can be served from the couch without getting up or scratching their physical media, because it's just as much of a hassle to do. Remove the hassle and I think people will be perfectly happy eschewing physical media for on demand services. We've seen as much with music anyway.

The only way I see a digital distribution model not working is if we all have these fabulously high speed services like Verizon FIOS in a few years but still can't use it either because of tiered internet pricing or just too many people trying to access limited bandwidth.

s5

s5

STAFF

San Francisco, CA

JAN 21, 2008 12:57 PM

The Macbook Air was significant in that it signals the future direction for Apple: (1) eco-friendly, (2) treating media as something that lives in a cloud rather than on shiny plastic discs, and (3) proof of concept for solid state drives in a laptop. Consider it a sign post for what's coming next.

As a product, it's exactly what I was looking for in a travel laptop. If you don't travel often, or if you're looking for a main computer, the Air is not for you. For me, the limitations of the machine are actually a selling point, especially since I already have a desktop Mac as my main computer.

AceT

AceT

Portland, OR
April 2004

JAN 21, 2008 01:00 PM

Kindle said:
Like I mentioned in the group, I was really kind of disappointed that a new iPhone with a larger capacity wasn't released.


The one comment I heard that made sense as far as not releasing or even announcing new iPhones/iPods today was that Apple didn't want to run into the same issues they did in October. Imagine all these people that bought iPhones and iPods for Christmas, and then a couple weeks later Apple announces newer, better, cheaper models.

Here's some good news for us iPhone owners though, I heard rumblings that Samsung was developing a 60 GB drive that can be piggy backed onto an iPhone. I presume this would work similarly to FastMac's iV iPhone External Battery Case. I went to the Samsung booth and asked someone about it but they didn't know what I was talking about.

That doesn't mean anything however because I also went to the Ecamm booth to get a demo of the software that lets you use your iPhone as a webcam for any Mac and though nobody knew about it when I first asked, the actual developers showed me a demo later on (and it was pretty neat).

s5

s5

STAFF

San Francisco, CA

JAN 21, 2008 01:02 PM

Kindle said:
It makes no sense to me that they max out the iPhone at 8GB and the iPod touch has a larger HD capacity than my MBP.



My understanding is that the radio inside the iPhone (for GSM) fills up the space where an extra 8GB could go.

Kindle

Kindle

Houston, TX
March 2006

JAN 21, 2008 01:12 PM

AceT said:

Kindle said:
Like I mentioned in the group, I was really kind of disappointed that a new iPhone with a larger capacity wasn't released.


The one comment I heard that made sense as far as not releasing or even announcing new iPhones/iPods today was that Apple didn't want to run into the same issues they did in October. Imagine all these people that bought iPhones and iPods for Christmas, and then a couple weeks later Apple announces newer, better, cheaper models.

Here's some good news for us iPhone owners though, I heard rumblings that Samsung was developing a 60 GB drive that can be piggy backed onto an iPhone. I presume this would work similarly to FastMac's iV iPhone External Battery Case. I went to the Samsung booth and asked someone about it but they didn't know what I was talking about.

That doesn't mean anything however because I also went to the Ecamm booth to get a demo of the software that lets you use your iPhone as a webcam for any Mac and though nobody knew about it when I first asked, the actual developers showed me a demo later on (and it was pretty neat).


I'm sure Apple didn't want to run into that issue but it's kind of their schtick. I think just about everyone, including current iPhone owners, were expecting the release. It's pretty much how it goes every MacWorld. We just buy something and they release a new one a few months later. It happened to me three years ago with my iPod and two years ago with my MBP. I actually held out on the iPhone this year, you know, third time's the charm type thing, and nothing. So yeah, still kind of bummed.

I'm still not sure I can hold out for the 3G this summer but I'm going to try my hardest. I also don't know how keen I am on a piggyback HD for the iPhone. It's just another something to carry around, I might as well just bring my iPod with me. Oh well.


s5 said:

Kindle said:
It makes no sense to me that they max out the iPhone at 8GB and the iPod touch has a larger HD capacity than my MBP.



My understanding is that the radio inside the iPhone (for GSM) fills up the space where an extra 8GB could go.



This is a bummer. I'd still like to see a minimum 30GB. I would be a happy Kindle then.

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