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  • THURSDAY AUGUST 23 2007 4:00 AM

All We Are Is Pixels in the Wind



Sometimes I think scientists are there for the sole purpose of dreaming up new ways to freak me out and keep me up at night.You could say that's a little narcissistic of me; you could also argue, however, the equally valid possibility that scientists are little more than mini-bosses in the Shigeru Miyamoto-esque eight-bit side scroller that is my life.

I got some interesting feedback from last week's story about Second Life getting all up in real life's grill, one message of which being a link to this story in the New York Times, highlighting some of the life work of Dr. Nick Bostrom. Dr. Bostrom, director of the Future of Humanity Institute as well as a philosophy professor at Oxford University, has some very interesting ideas about the future of humanity; more interesting still are his ideas on how the future may be effecting us now, looping back like an infinite technological paradox. You see, Bostrom has a theory that, in the future, advanced "posthumans" will be big fans of games like Civilization played out with sentient characters on computers with the capacity for untold amounts of AI, and baby, somewhere out there the future is now and we're already living it.

Until I talked to Nick Bostrom, a philosopher at Oxford University, it never occurred to me that our universe might be somebody else’s hobby. I hadn’t imagined that the omniscient, omnipotent creator of the heavens and earth could be an advanced version of a guy who spends his weekends building model railroads or overseeing video-game worlds like the Sims.

But now it seems quite possible. In fact, if you accept a pretty reasonable assumption of Dr. Bostrom’s, it is almost a mathematical certainty that we are living in someone else’s computer simulation.



In Bostrom's eleven-page theory (published in Philosophical Quarterly) he proposes an equation that looks something like this:

fsim = fpNH/(fpNH)+H



and what it basically breaks down to is that at least one of the following must theoretically be true:

a.) Mankind will never reach a state of advanced technological wizardry required for artificial-intelligence civilization simulations en masse.
b.) Mankind will reach such a state, but will have evolved to a point where they have better things to do than run civilization sims.
c.) Mankind will and has already reached such a state, and the reality we exist in now is that of a computer-generated simulation.

Just so we're clear, we aren't talking about something like The Matrix, where one could feasibly wake up and unplug himself from the simulation system; Bostrom's hypothesis is somewhere more between the lines of Tron and a futuristic World of Warcraft, millions of cognizant little worlds at the fingertips of millions of would-be gods.

Bostrom's thesis is, if anything, very well thought-out, exploring every facet of this world of possibilities from the cognizant disparity of "characters" to the truly chilling notion that this game is a first-person platform and all of your friends and lovers are, for all intents and purposes, Hylian villagers:

In addition to ancestor-simulations, one may also consider the possibility of more selective simulations that include only a small group of humans or a single individual. The rest of humanity would then be zombies or "shadow-people" -- humans simulated only at a level sufficient for the fully simulated people not to notice anything suspicious. It is not clear how much cheaper shadow-people would be to simulate than real people. It is not even obvious that it is possible for an entity to behave indistinguishably from a real human and yet lack conscious experience. Even if there are such selective simulations, you should not think that you are in one of them unless you think they are much more numerous than complete simulations. There would have to be about 100 billion times as many "me-simulations" (simulations of the life of only a single mind) as there are ancestor-simulations in order for most simulated persons to be in me-simulations.



I have half a mind to say, "Yes well, anything's possible," but the other half wants to squint at everyone in search of Koopa Troopa tendencies.

The application of math equations to try and inject logic into the visceral nature of the human experience will probably strike me as somewhat incompatible and insufficient no matter what, but what is truly interesting about the whole argument is its modern theological nature: a flesh-and-blood god to manage our imaginary belief-states, fill in the details of our world, create miracles through save games, and roll stats for a nation of millions. Still more interesting is the approach with which this theory is given: it's not so much about injecting doubt into the unquestionable truth of our existence, but more of an alternate explanation, not something to slow us down but just to take in as information and possible use as the base of a new religion. (A simple task, I'm sure, when being told that we are all pawns in someone's game of World of Warcraft Expansion Pack 100.)

A more practical question is how to behave in a computer simulation. Your first impulse might be to say nothing matters anymore because nothing’s real. But just because your neural circuits are made of silicon (or whatever posthumans would use in their computers) instead of carbon doesn’t mean your feelings are any less real.

David J. Chalmers, a philosopher at the Australian National University, says Dr. Bostrom’s simulation hypothesis isn’t a cause for skepticism, but simply a different metaphysical explanation of our world. Whatever you’re touching now — a sheet of paper, a keyboard, a coffee mug — is real to you even if it’s created on a computer circuit rather than fashioned out of wood, plastic or clay. You still have the desire to live as long as you can in this virtual world — and in any simulated afterlife that the designer of this world might bestow on you.



So, I suppose that's that: you keep on keepin' on, whether substantive or someone else's Sim. I guess that's all one really can do, isn't it? What do you think?

Now, if you'll excuse me, I must be going. All this mithril I found in my neighbors' dresser drawers and flower pots isn't just going to spend itself.


If you found this interesting, I recommend picking up Jostein Gaarder's Sophie's World. Similar themes, on a somewhat more luddite level. Hat tip to Tony_T for the link!

 

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Comments
AceT

AceT

Portland, OR
April 2004

AUG 23, 2007 06:03 PM

_DictionaryGirl_ said:
You could say that's a little narcissistic of me; you could also argue, however, the equally valid possibility that scientists are little more than mini-bosses in the Shigeru Miyamoto-esque eight-bit side scroller that is my life.


Greatest sentence since Wil's Voltron metaphor.

punk

punk

Phoenix, AZ
January 2004

AUG 23, 2007 08:47 PM

Dr. Bostrom clearly loved the ending of Men in Black.

WADO

WADO

Brooklyn, NY
March 2006

AUG 23, 2007 09:20 PM

Well, when you go around universes and time-streams the only thing you can really expect is that a lot of people will be angry, and consider the whole thing a bad move.

FireBrand

FireBrand

South River, NJ
December 2004

AUG 23, 2007 10:12 PM

the thing about this that weirds me out is the concept of back story, and how it would effect us all, in most games you don't experience every second of a persons life, so when did this sim start 2000 years ago or an hour ago and any recollection before that is just scripted back story, or just randomly created and assigned. so are all of my life experiences just some roll of the dice like a D&D character getting his stats made and class chosen... is a low roll why my charisma is so lackluster, were to many skill points assigned to... screw it if life isn't real does any one know where I can get a hold of any Acid?

asbestosman

asbestosman

Australia
October 2005

AUG 23, 2007 10:35 PM

apesamongus said:
Ummm. how does he exclude option "D. Mankind will reach the stage, but has not yet"? Sounds like he confused computer sym with time travel.



Because the odds of that are infintesimal compared to the other options. If you suppose that mankind will reach that stage then suddenly the ratio of real universes to simulated ones becomes 1:millions/billions


ortho7117 and others said:
A lot like the ol' "brain in a vat" thought experiment. I think it's all generally called solipsism.



It seems to me that it's somewhat similar to the ol' BiaV, but isn't really solipsic. In fact, the idea behind it presumes not just that there's a reality outside our own experience, but an even greater reality outside of that.
But maybe I just don't understand solipsism.
However, I do understand that this comic is hilarious.


I've heard about this quite a bit recently, and I wonder why. I heard of this "simulation hypothosis" in this exact form years ago. Could be that it's only recently that the good Dr has made it an equation.
It's always made me think of Intelligent Design. Who's to say we're not in a simulation that started, say, 6000 years ago whatever

joker_

joker_

Minneapolis, MN
October 2005

AUG 23, 2007 10:41 PM

That fucking Doctor stole my idea. I was talking about this during a trip in the early 90s.

I'm not entirely sure why I just typed that?

biggrin

scylis

scylis

USA
November 2004

AUG 23, 2007 10:54 PM

ElPres said:
Who knows the cheat codes?



George W. Bush.

there just doesn't happen to be a code to deal with public image, it seems.

scylis

scylis

USA
November 2004

AUG 23, 2007 10:55 PM

asbestosman said:
I've heard about this quite a bit recently, and I wonder why. I heard of this "simulation hypothosis" in this exact form years ago. Could be that it's only recently that the good Dr has made it an equation.
It's always made me think of Intelligent Design. Who's to say we're not in a simulation that started, say, 6000 years ago whatever



Dinosaur bones were put in the ground by the developers to trick you into not believing!!!

Evilgasm

Evilgasm

Netherlands
April 2007

AUG 24, 2007 03:11 AM

FireBrand said:
so are all of my life experiences just some roll of the dice like a D&D character getting his stats made and class chosen... is a low roll why my charisma is so lackluster?





jermhawk

jermhawk

Tidioute, PA
December 2004

AUG 24, 2007 05:20 AM

If this is true, then why do i piss more when i drink beer than with anything else in the same amount?

VinnyVidiVici

VinnyVidiVici

Orange Park, FL
February 2006

AUG 24, 2007 05:46 AM

The NYTimes link doesn't seem to work for me. frown

apesamongus

apesamongus

Atlanta, GA
July 2002

AUG 24, 2007 09:24 AM

asbestosman said:

apesamongus said:
Ummm. how does he exclude option "D. Mankind will reach the stage, but has not yet"? Sounds like he confused computer sym with time travel.



Because the odds of that are infintesimal compared to the other options. If you suppose that mankind will reach that stage then suddenly the ratio of real universes to simulated ones becomes 1:millions/billions


Shouldn't a scientist not abuse statistics like that?

wtk10025

wtk10025

New York, NY
November 2006

AUG 24, 2007 10:02 AM

The unstated underlying premise in this somewhat bland thought experiment is that there is someone or something actively operating, i.e. in charge of, the universe, an unmoved mover of some sort Hardly a new concept. Dressing that archaic construction up with an equation purporting to posit the likelihood of a future historical state doesn't render that underlying premise any more plausible--or useful.

fountainofdreams

fountainofdreams

Batavia, IL
January 2005

AUG 24, 2007 10:21 AM

So how would you explain myself sitting and losing myself in WoW, which could conceivably be its own little universe of people? Infinite recursion?

That's one geeky posthuman.

Tiger_Fodder

Tiger_Fodder

Braintree, MA
June 2007

AUG 24, 2007 11:43 AM

DeadRat said:
Isn't this theory just a computer-firendly version of Descartes saying that his body may not be real (brain in a jar being poked by "scientist") but his thoughs are, so by being able to think he's able to exist?

But if this guy is right, that would finally explain why my master's thesis director always seemed like a badly coded non playing character from a cheap WoW clone.



+1....I think....maybe the person playing my character is just trying to throw everyone off his scent?

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