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Sometimes I think scientists are there for the sole purpose of dreaming up new ways to freak me out and keep me up at night.You could say that's a little narcissistic of me; you could also argue, however, the equally valid possibility that scientists are little more than mini-bosses in the Shigeru Miyamoto-esque eight-bit side scroller that is my life.

I got some interesting feedback from last week's story about Second Life getting all up in real life's grill, one message of which being a link to this story in the New York Times, highlighting some of the life work of Dr. Nick Bostrom. Dr. Bostrom, director of the Future of Humanity Institute as well as a philosophy professor at Oxford University, has some very interesting ideas about the future of humanity; more interesting still are his ideas on how the future may be effecting us now, looping back like an infinite technological paradox. You see, Bostrom has a theory that, in the future, advanced "posthumans" will be big fans of games like Civilization played out with sentient characters on computers with the capacity for untold amounts of AI, and baby, somewhere out there the future is now and we're already living it.

Until I talked to Nick Bostrom, a philosopher at Oxford University, it never occurred to me that our universe might be somebody else’s hobby. I hadn’t imagined that the omniscient, omnipotent creator of the heavens and earth could be an advanced version of a guy who spends his weekends building model railroads or overseeing video-game worlds like the Sims.

But now it seems quite possible. In fact, if you accept a pretty reasonable assumption of Dr. Bostrom’s, it is almost a mathematical certainty that we are living in someone else’s computer simulation.



In Bostrom's eleven-page theory (published in Philosophical Quarterly) he proposes an equation that looks something like this:

fsim = fpNH/(fpNH)+H



and what it basically breaks down to is that at least one of the following must theoretically be true:

a.) Mankind will never reach a state of advanced technological wizardry required for artificial-intelligence civilization simulations en masse.
b.) Mankind will reach such a state, but will have evolved to a point where they have better things to do than run civilization sims.
c.) Mankind will and has already reached such a state, and the reality we exist in now is that of a computer-generated simulation.

Just so we're clear, we aren't talking about something like The Matrix, where one could feasibly wake up and unplug himself from the simulation system; Bostrom's hypothesis is somewhere more between the lines of Tron and a futuristic World of Warcraft, millions of cognizant little worlds at the fingertips of millions of would-be gods.

Bostrom's thesis is, if anything, very well thought-out, exploring every facet of this world of possibilities from the cognizant disparity of "characters" to the truly chilling notion that this game is a first-person platform and all of your friends and lovers are, for all intents and purposes, Hylian villagers:

In addition to ancestor-simulations, one may also consider the possibility of more selective simulations that include only a small group of humans or a single individual. The rest of humanity would then be zombies or "shadow-people" -- humans simulated only at a level sufficient for the fully simulated people not to notice anything suspicious. It is not clear how much cheaper shadow-people would be to simulate than real people. It is not even obvious that it is possible for an entity to behave indistinguishably from a real human and yet lack conscious experience. Even if there are such selective simulations, you should not think that you are in one of them unless you think they are much more numerous than complete simulations. There would have to be about 100 billion times as many "me-simulations" (simulations of the life of only a single mind) as there are ancestor-simulations in order for most simulated persons to be in me-simulations.



I have half a mind to say, "Yes well, anything's possible," but the other half wants to squint at everyone in search of Koopa Troopa tendencies.

The application of math equations to try and inject logic into the visceral nature of the human experience will probably strike me as somewhat incompatible and insufficient no matter what, but what is truly interesting about the whole argument is its modern theological nature: a flesh-and-blood god to manage our imaginary belief-states, fill in the details of our world, create miracles through save games, and roll stats for a nation of millions. Still more interesting is the approach with which this theory is given: it's not so much about injecting doubt into the unquestionable truth of our existence, but more of an alternate explanation, not something to slow us down but just to take in as information and possible use as the base of a new religion. (A simple task, I'm sure, when being told that we are all pawns in someone's game of World of Warcraft Expansion Pack 100.)

A more practical question is how to behave in a computer simulation. Your first impulse might be to say nothing matters anymore because nothing’s real. But just because your neural circuits are made of silicon (or whatever posthumans would use in their computers) instead of carbon doesn’t mean your feelings are any less real.

David J. Chalmers, a philosopher at the Australian National University, says Dr. Bostrom’s simulation hypothesis isn’t a cause for skepticism, but simply a different metaphysical explanation of our world. Whatever you’re touching now — a sheet of paper, a keyboard, a coffee mug — is real to you even if it’s created on a computer circuit rather than fashioned out of wood, plastic or clay. You still have the desire to live as long as you can in this virtual world — and in any simulated afterlife that the designer of this world might bestow on you.



So, I suppose that's that: you keep on keepin' on, whether substantive or someone else's Sim. I guess that's all one really can do, isn't it? What do you think?

Now, if you'll excuse me, I must be going. All this mithril I found in my neighbors' dresser drawers and flower pots isn't just going to spend itself.


If you found this interesting, I recommend picking up Jostein Gaarder's Sophie's World. Similar themes, on a somewhat more luddite level. Hat tip to Tony_T for the link!

 

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sickboyedd

sickboyedd

United Kingdom
January 2004

AUG 23, 2007 04:32 AM

Sophies World is a great book, kudos for recommending it.

The idea of life being generated in computers is an interesting one; part of the creationist's arguments I have encountered is that modern science has not been able to create life from the precursor elements it claims it arose from. As our computer simulations are able to become more and more complex, perhaps life will first be created in silica, before any real world attempt is successful. We might become "Gods" in our attempts to show how life doesn't need one to exist.

This kind of thing I think is always best discussed in a group of friends with something being passed around rather than in a scientific seminar biggrin

DeadRat

DeadRat

United Kingdom
February 2006

AUG 23, 2007 04:33 AM

Isn't this theory just a computer-firendly version of Descartes saying that his body may not be real (brain in a jar being poked by "scientist") but his thoughs are, so by being able to think he's able to exist?

But if this guy is right, that would finally explain why my master's thesis director always seemed like a badly coded non playing character from a cheap WoW clone.

SnowgodCCR

SnowgodCCR

Derry, NH
November 2006

AUG 23, 2007 05:05 AM

Excuse me, the gamer just pressed "brush teeth" and I must obey in my SimLife.

brooklynhero

brooklynhero

Brooklyn, NY
October 2006

AUG 23, 2007 05:15 AM

Time to start walking around to see if I can find a plaque in a glacier

Lockeblade

Lockeblade

Australia
May 2007

AUG 23, 2007 05:20 AM

Now to figure out a way to communicate with the person running this sim and tell the fucker to pay his equivalent of a chinese gold farmer to send me some fucking gold so I can buy an epic house... once I'm done with the Backpacking Europe expansion pack that is. And while he's at it he can create a new female character to dance and take off her clothes for me. Then he can happily play me until lvl 80 at which time he'll get bored with me, sell his account and I'll get deleted.

Oh, and a fiction book that, in a sense, deals with this notion and is just bloody fantastic is Oryx & Crake by Margaret Atwood. Do yourselves a favour...

ElPres

ElPres

Tampa, FL
November 2003

AUG 23, 2007 06:33 AM

Who knows the cheat codes?

Darke

Darke

Trego, WI
June 2005

AUG 23, 2007 06:46 AM

Sounds like the good professor read Tad Williams' Otherland series.

Sick

Sick

Minneapolis, MN
June 2003

AUG 23, 2007 06:47 AM

Is it science? Not so much. But it's quite interesting as philosophy. The idea that we're all the imaginings of some sentient somewhere certainly isn't new, but the technology twist adds to the idea.

I'm skeptical of that equation, though. Using mathematics to "prove" topics in metaphysics always has the tainted odor of numerology about it.

In fact, if you accept a pretty reasonable assumption of Dr. Bostrom's, it is almost a mathematical certainty that we are living in someone else's computer simulation.


I'll have to read the entire article later when I have time, but does that "reasonable assumption" involve an infinite universe?

Jim_H

Jim_H

Blackwood, NJ
January 2007

AUG 23, 2007 07:08 AM

Some another bone.

Admiral_Pants

Admiral_Pants

Austin, TX
May 2004

AUG 23, 2007 07:37 AM

Ahem. Inhabitants of Hyrule are Hylian.



SockPuppet

SockPuppet

I'm lost
July 2006

AUG 23, 2007 08:00 AM

Distinction between this and the religious stories we've been told since we were little:
the name of the player of the game.

SockPuppet

SockPuppet

I'm lost
July 2006

AUG 23, 2007 08:01 AM

Imagician said:
Now to figure out a way to communicate with the person running this sim and tell the fucker to pay his equivalent of a chinese gold farmer to send me some fucking gold so I can buy an epic house... once I'm done with the Backpacking Europe expansion pack that is. And while he's at it he can create a new female character to dance and take off her clothes for me.



That would be called "praying".

Clidna

Clidna

Emo, ON
January 2005

AUG 23, 2007 08:17 AM

In fact, if you accept a pretty reasonable assumption of Dr. Bostrom's, it is almost a mathematical certainty that we are living in someone else's computer simulation.



No way. For one simple reason... we would "crash" way more biggrin

I've always been more of a fan of the "We are living in Lisa's petrie dish" sort of explanation (go Simpsons!) wink

Clidna

Clidna

Emo, ON
January 2005

AUG 23, 2007 08:23 AM

ElPres said:
Who knows the cheat codes?



+1 - I used to have a cheat for SimCity that gave me unlimited $$ - anyone figure that code out yet? biggrin

apesamongus

apesamongus

Atlanta, GA
July 2002

AUG 23, 2007 09:06 AM

Ummm. how does he exclude option "D. Mankind will reach the stage, but has not yet"? Sounds like he confused computer sym with time travel.

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