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  • SATURDAY OCTOBER 27 2007 4:00 PM

The Cold, Hard Science of the Eloi and the Morlock



Is it science...or is it science fiction!? London-based evolutionary theorist Oliver Curry has declared that humanity is actually evolving into two sub-species, which will have fully emerged within 100,000 years. Half of the family will be an attractive, intelligent ruling elite, while the others will form an underclass of dim-witted, ugly goblin-like creatures, strikingly similar to the the Eloi and the Morlock in H.G. Wells' The Time Machine.

The human race would peak in the year 3000, he said - before a decline due to dependence on technology.

People would become choosier about their sexual partners, causing humanity to divide into sub-species, he added.

The descendants of the genetic upper class would be tall, slim, healthy, attractive, intelligent, and creative and a far cry from the "underclass" humans who would have evolved into dim-witted, ugly, squat goblin-like creatures.

According to Dr. Curry, the men of the ruling elite will have deeper voices and bigger penises, and the women will have smooth hairless skin, large eyes and pert breasts. Interbreeding will have produced a single coffee-coloured skin tone. That's great, but there's a downside, too:

However, Dr Curry warns, in 10,000 years time humans may have paid a genetic price for relying on technology.

Spoiled by gadgets designed to meet their every need, they could come to resemble domesticated animals.

Social skills, such as communicating and interacting with others, could be lost, along with emotions such as love, sympathy, trust and respect. People would become less able to care for others, or perform in teams.

Physically, they would start to appear more juvenile. Chins would recede, as a result of having to chew less on processed food.

There could also be health problems caused by reliance on medicine, resulting in weak immune systems. Preventing deaths would also help to preserve the genetic defects that cause cancer.

Okay, so--aside from which subspecies you think your descendants will fall into--the real question here is, why are Oliver Curry's claims being published? This story, which made headlines in the past week, seems to have originally appeared last year in the BBC, the Telegraph, the Sun, the Scotsman, and various other news outlets. Why again, now? First of all, he's a political theorist, not a scientist or geneticist. Second of all, the idea the humanity is still evolving seems legitimate, but everyone turning coffee-colored? Really? Human beings have been geographically and socially mobile for a long, long time now, and we don't show any overarching signs of blending, yet.

Last year when it appeared, Bad Science ripped it apart.

Oliver has perhaps not been to Brazil, where black African, white European, and Amerindian have lived side by side and bred together for many centuries. The Brazilians have not gone coffee coloured, they in fact still show a wide range of skin pigmentation, from black to tan. This is because skin pigmentation seems to be coded for by a fairly small number of genes and probably doesn’t blend and even out as Oliver - a political theorist, not a scientist - suggests.

What about his other ideas? Like the one that ultimately, through extreme socioeconomic divisions in society, humans will divide into two species: one tall, thin symmetrical, clean, healthy, intelligent and creative, the other short, stocky, asymmetrical, grubby, unhealthy and not as bright?

Dividing into species requires some fairly strong pressures, like geographical divisions: even then, the Tasmanian aboriginals, who were isolated for 10,000 years, can still have children perfectly easily with white Europeans. “Sympatric speciation”, a division into species where the two groups live in the same place, as Curry is proposing, is even tougher. For a while, many scientists didn’t think it happened at all. It would require that socioeconomic divides were absolute, although history shows that attractive impoverished females and wealthy ugly men can be remarkably resourceful in love.

Sounds like Curry would have been better off doing an MFA instead of a PhD, although then he would have wound up facing plagiarism charges. Are we still evolving? Yeah, I would guess so. Are we evolving in the direction of H.G. Wells' The Time Machine? Probably not so much. Soylent Green? Maybe. Bladerunner? Perhaps. But The Time Machine? Gimme a break.

 

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SockPuppet

SockPuppet

I'm lost
July 2006

NOV 04, 2007 05:33 AM

Tyvron said:

squee_ said:
I think you are severely underestimating the amount of energy needed to destroy a planet of the earth's size. From what I have heard there is not enough hydrogen in all of the water on earth sufficient to completely destroy the planet. All life on the planet? Maybe. Make the earth uninhabitable for humans? Sure.

Of course if you have some data that supports your claim I'd be happy to hear it.



I think debating between rendering a planet permanently uninhabitable blowing it into chunks is semantics. There are plenty of human activities that left unchecked, could damage the environment beyond Earth's ability to repair the damage in steady state.

Earth might still be orbiting the Sun, but given a runaway greenhouse effect, it would be closer to what we think of Venus than what we think of Earth. Enough atomic blasts could irradiate and superheat the atmosphere to the point where it evaporates away from the planet leaving molten rock to slowly cool in the void of space.



I don't think it's semantics at all. It poisons the debate and allows the do-nothing business-as-usual people to say "But he's talking nonsense about destroying the planet". Which is correct, because that is nonsense.

So is the idea that enough nukes could strip the planet's atmosphere. In theory it's possible, but you should try doing the mathematics; how many nukes would you need? The runaway greenhouse makes much more sense, for heaps of reasons (not the least of them being economics).

Tyvron

Tyvron

Ann Arbor, MI
September 2007

NOV 04, 2007 12:29 PM

SockPuppet said:

Tyvron said:

squee_ said:
I think you are severely underestimating the amount of energy needed to destroy a planet of the earth's size. From what I have heard there is not enough hydrogen in all of the water on earth sufficient to completely destroy the planet. All life on the planet? Maybe. Make the earth uninhabitable for humans? Sure.

Of course if you have some data that supports your claim I'd be happy to hear it.



I think debating between rendering a planet permanently uninhabitable blowing it into chunks is semantics. There are plenty of human activities that left unchecked, could damage the environment beyond Earth's ability to repair the damage in steady state.

Earth might still be orbiting the Sun, but given a runaway greenhouse effect, it would be closer to what we think of Venus than what we think of Earth. Enough atomic blasts could irradiate and superheat the atmosphere to the point where it evaporates away from the planet leaving molten rock to slowly cool in the void of space.



I don't think it's semantics at all. It poisons the debate and allows the do-nothing business-as-usual people to say "But he's talking nonsense about destroying the planet". Which is correct, because that is nonsense.

So is the idea that enough nukes could strip the planet's atmosphere. In theory it's possible, but you should try doing the mathematics; how many nukes would you need? The runaway greenhouse makes much more sense, for heaps of reasons (not the least of them being economics).



I didn't say the nuclear holocaust scenario was easy or likely. It would take a LOT of nuclear warheads launched all at once detonating in a spread out, roughly uniform distribution all over the land mass of Earth. It's more of a "worst case, what if the biggest nightmare of the Cold War happened and every country emptied their silos in expected retaliation" type scenario. It's just to point out that while it would actually take effort to render Earth uninhabitable through nuclear holocaust, it's not entirely impossible.

Also, for the runaway greenhouse effect to occur, we would have to do nothing to stop global warming now. Scientists are already debating whether the damage is done and it's too far along to reverse the process, but we haven't reached the point of no return just yet. If the global average temperature gets too high, at some point the evaporation rate of water will become unbalanced with the precipitation rate. Water vapor is actually a worse greenhouse gas than CO2 so once a critical atmospheric saturation level is reached, you might as well say "bye-bye Earth." Again, it would require a tremendous amount of inaction and a callous "do nothing until it becomes a self evident problem" attitude, but it's still possible for human activity to push the ecosystem beyond the limits of repairing itself.

Chainlink

Chainlink

Key West, FL
August 2005

NOV 04, 2007 02:40 PM


"Sympatric speciation", a division into species where the two groups live in the same place, as Curry is proposing, is even tougher. For a while, many scientists didn't think it happened at all. It would require that socioeconomic divides were absolute,



That is simply not true. Sympatric speciation happens frequently and is a well documented occurrence observed in nature and duplicated in experiments.
Darwins finches would be a good example.
Food sources, body size and type, natural disasters, serve as selection events and wide varieties of coping mechanisms, or lack of, slowly or dramatically influence the development or separation of species.

SockPuppet

SockPuppet

I'm lost
July 2006

NOV 04, 2007 03:50 PM

Tyvron said:

SockPuppet said:

Tyvron said:

squee_ said:
I think you are severely underestimating the amount of energy needed to destroy a planet of the earth's size. From what I have heard there is not enough hydrogen in all of the water on earth sufficient to completely destroy the planet. All life on the planet? Maybe. Make the earth uninhabitable for humans? Sure.

Of course if you have some data that supports your claim I'd be happy to hear it.



I think debating between rendering a planet permanently uninhabitable blowing it into chunks is semantics. There are plenty of human activities that left unchecked, could damage the environment beyond Earth's ability to repair the damage in steady state.

Earth might still be orbiting the Sun, but given a runaway greenhouse effect, it would be closer to what we think of Venus than what we think of Earth. Enough atomic blasts could irradiate and superheat the atmosphere to the point where it evaporates away from the planet leaving molten rock to slowly cool in the void of space.



I don't think it's semantics at all. It poisons the debate and allows the do-nothing business-as-usual people to say "But he's talking nonsense about destroying the planet". Which is correct, because that is nonsense.

So is the idea that enough nukes could strip the planet's atmosphere. In theory it's possible, but you should try doing the mathematics; how many nukes would you need? The runaway greenhouse makes much more sense, for heaps of reasons (not the least of them being economics).



I didn't say the nuclear holocaust scenario was easy or likely. It would take a LOT of nuclear warheads launched all at once detonating in a spread out, roughly uniform distribution all over the land mass of Earth. It's more of a "worst case, what if the biggest nightmare of the Cold War happened and every country emptied their silos in expected retaliation" type scenario. It's just to point out that while it would actually take effort to render Earth uninhabitable through nuclear holocaust, it's not entirely impossible.

Also, for the runaway greenhouse effect to occur, we would have to do nothing to stop global warming now. Scientists are already debating whether the damage is done and it's too far along to reverse the process, but we haven't reached the point of no return just yet. If the global average temperature gets too high, at some point the evaporation rate of water will become unbalanced with the precipitation rate. Water vapor is actually a worse greenhouse gas than CO2 so once a critical atmospheric saturation level is reached, you might as well say "bye-bye Earth." Again, it would require a tremendous amount of inaction and a callous "do nothing until it becomes a self evident problem" attitude, but it's still possible for human activity to push the ecosystem beyond the limits of repairing itself.



I have to say, I don't believe that a Venus-style runaway greenhouse is achievable by (unintended) human action. I don't think anyone doing the science is proposing it, either; current models, as far as I understand them, suggest that global temperatures will stabilise several degrees higher than at present. I would guess that the atmospheric temperature necessary for the water-vapour tipover is upwards of 50 Celsius, which is well above the survivable range for humans anyway.

Have you a source for your runaway-greenhouse suggestion?

Tyvron

Tyvron

Ann Arbor, MI
September 2007

NOV 04, 2007 07:41 PM

SockPuppet said:

Tyvron said:

SockPuppet said:

Tyvron said:

squee_ said:
I think you are severely underestimating the amount of energy needed to destroy a planet of the earth's size. From what I have heard there is not enough hydrogen in all of the water on earth sufficient to completely destroy the planet. All life on the planet? Maybe. Make the earth uninhabitable for humans? Sure.

Of course if you have some data that supports your claim I'd be happy to hear it.



I think debating between rendering a planet permanently uninhabitable blowing it into chunks is semantics. There are plenty of human activities that left unchecked, could damage the environment beyond Earth's ability to repair the damage in steady state.

Earth might still be orbiting the Sun, but given a runaway greenhouse effect, it would be closer to what we think of Venus than what we think of Earth. Enough atomic blasts could irradiate and superheat the atmosphere to the point where it evaporates away from the planet leaving molten rock to slowly cool in the void of space.



I don't think it's semantics at all. It poisons the debate and allows the do-nothing business-as-usual people to say "But he's talking nonsense about destroying the planet". Which is correct, because that is nonsense.

So is the idea that enough nukes could strip the planet's atmosphere. In theory it's possible, but you should try doing the mathematics; how many nukes would you need? The runaway greenhouse makes much more sense, for heaps of reasons (not the least of them being economics).



I didn't say the nuclear holocaust scenario was easy or likely. It would take a LOT of nuclear warheads launched all at once detonating in a spread out, roughly uniform distribution all over the land mass of Earth. It's more of a "worst case, what if the biggest nightmare of the Cold War happened and every country emptied their silos in expected retaliation" type scenario. It's just to point out that while it would actually take effort to render Earth uninhabitable through nuclear holocaust, it's not entirely impossible.

Also, for the runaway greenhouse effect to occur, we would have to do nothing to stop global warming now. Scientists are already debating whether the damage is done and it's too far along to reverse the process, but we haven't reached the point of no return just yet. If the global average temperature gets too high, at some point the evaporation rate of water will become unbalanced with the precipitation rate. Water vapor is actually a worse greenhouse gas than CO2 so once a critical atmospheric saturation level is reached, you might as well say "bye-bye Earth." Again, it would require a tremendous amount of inaction and a callous "do nothing until it becomes a self evident problem" attitude, but it's still possible for human activity to push the ecosystem beyond the limits of repairing itself.



I have to say, I don't believe that a Venus-style runaway greenhouse is achievable by (unintended) human action. I don't think anyone doing the science is proposing it, either; current models, as far as I understand them, suggest that global temperatures will stabilise several degrees higher than at present. I would guess that the atmospheric temperature necessary for the water-vapour tipover is upwards of 50 Celsius, which is well above the survivable range for humans anyway.

Have you a source for your runaway-greenhouse suggestion?



Other than paying attention in an astronomy lecture one day and in Thermodynamics II another, I don't have anything other than what two university professors in two different disciplines with doctorates and teaching degrees told their two separate classes one day. I'm not saying that guarantees they speak for all scientists everywhere or that they were necessarily right, but seeing as how I spent a semester in each class letting them teach me, I willing to give them benefit of the doubt that they had some idea of what they were talking about. My professor for engineering and the environment also went over it briefly, so I assume he knew what he was talking about as well.

To be fair, they said it would end up being one of two scenarios that are impossible to determine for sure which would happen without observing it after the fact. Either the Earth would get so hot that the seas started evaporating at a greater rate, leading to more saturation in the atmosphere and ever increasing temperatures until the oceans started to boil, or a limit would be reached where the cloud cover due to excess water vapor would begin blocking solar radiation and force Earth into an ice age. The ice age would be reversible and would probably only last 1000-2000 years. A runaway wet greenhouse on the other hand could potentially make the planet inhospitable and would not be reversible. Once the evaporation rate of the oceans reachs a certain level, the effect would become self sustaining. The effect wouldn't be as bad as on Venus until the oceans completely boiled away however.

SockPuppet

SockPuppet

I'm lost
July 2006

NOV 05, 2007 04:22 PM

Tyvron said:

SockPuppet said:

Tyvron said:

SockPuppet said:

Tyvron said:

squee_ said:
I think you are severely underestimating the amount of energy needed to destroy a planet of the earth's size. From what I have heard there is not enough hydrogen in all of the water on earth sufficient to completely destroy the planet. All life on the planet? Maybe. Make the earth uninhabitable for humans? Sure.

Of course if you have some data that supports your claim I'd be happy to hear it.



I think debating between rendering a planet permanently uninhabitable blowing it into chunks is semantics. There are plenty of human activities that left unchecked, could damage the environment beyond Earth's ability to repair the damage in steady state.

Earth might still be orbiting the Sun, but given a runaway greenhouse effect, it would be closer to what we think of Venus than what we think of Earth. Enough atomic blasts could irradiate and superheat the atmosphere to the point where it evaporates away from the planet leaving molten rock to slowly cool in the void of space.



I don't think it's semantics at all. It poisons the debate and allows the do-nothing business-as-usual people to say "But he's talking nonsense about destroying the planet". Which is correct, because that is nonsense.

So is the idea that enough nukes could strip the planet's atmosphere. In theory it's possible, but you should try doing the mathematics; how many nukes would you need? The runaway greenhouse makes much more sense, for heaps of reasons (not the least of them being economics).



I didn't say the nuclear holocaust scenario was easy or likely. It would take a LOT of nuclear warheads launched all at once detonating in a spread out, roughly uniform distribution all over the land mass of Earth. It's more of a "worst case, what if the biggest nightmare of the Cold War happened and every country emptied their silos in expected retaliation" type scenario. It's just to point out that while it would actually take effort to render Earth uninhabitable through nuclear holocaust, it's not entirely impossible.

Also, for the runaway greenhouse effect to occur, we would have to do nothing to stop global warming now. Scientists are already debating whether the damage is done and it's too far along to reverse the process, but we haven't reached the point of no return just yet. If the global average temperature gets too high, at some point the evaporation rate of water will become unbalanced with the precipitation rate. Water vapor is actually a worse greenhouse gas than CO2 so once a critical atmospheric saturation level is reached, you might as well say "bye-bye Earth." Again, it would require a tremendous amount of inaction and a callous "do nothing until it becomes a self evident problem" attitude, but it's still possible for human activity to push the ecosystem beyond the limits of repairing itself.



I have to say, I don't believe that a Venus-style runaway greenhouse is achievable by (unintended) human action. I don't think anyone doing the science is proposing it, either; current models, as far as I understand them, suggest that global temperatures will stabilise several degrees higher than at present. I would guess that the atmospheric temperature necessary for the water-vapour tipover is upwards of 50 Celsius, which is well above the survivable range for humans anyway.

Have you a source for your runaway-greenhouse suggestion?



Other than paying attention in an astronomy lecture one day and in Thermodynamics II another, I don't have anything other than what two university professors in two different disciplines with doctorates and teaching degrees told their two separate classes one day. I'm not saying that guarantees they speak for all scientists everywhere or that they were necessarily right, but seeing as how I spent a semester in each class letting them teach me, I willing to give them benefit of the doubt that they had some idea of what they were talking about. My professor for engineering and the environment also went over it briefly, so I assume he knew what he was talking about as well.

To be fair, they said it would end up being one of two scenarios that are impossible to determine for sure which would happen without observing it after the fact. Either the Earth would get so hot that the seas started evaporating at a greater rate, leading to more saturation in the atmosphere and ever increasing temperatures until the oceans started to boil, or a limit would be reached where the cloud cover due to excess water vapor would begin blocking solar radiation and force Earth into an ice age. The ice age would be reversible and would probably only last 1000-2000 years. A runaway wet greenhouse on the other hand could potentially make the planet inhospitable and would not be reversible. Once the evaporation rate of the oceans reachs a certain level, the effect would become self sustaining. The effect wouldn't be as bad as on Venus until the oceans completely boiled away however.



What questions were the two lecturers responding to, exactly? Because neither of those (nor the engineering/environment prof) sounds as if they were asked a question about the Earth's climate.

And I'd also like to know what the water-vapour tipover point is, please.

Tyvron

Tyvron

Ann Arbor, MI
September 2007

NOV 05, 2007 11:03 PM

It wasn't in response to a question. In the astro lecture it was aside while discussing why the greenhouse effect is necessary but what would happen if it got out of hand, and how human activity was contributing to speeding up the process. In the thermo lecture the professor went on a tangent while discussing dew points and human comfort zones for humidity. Or maybe it was exergy and combustion. I don't remember exactly what segued into it but he started talking about how the Gulf Stream was effected by global warming, what would happen to Northern Europe if it were disrupted, and what scientists theorized might happen if global warming went unchecked.

I actually tried to look up moist greenhouse effect yesterday, but I couldn't find anything about the saturation limit.

SockPuppet

SockPuppet

I'm lost
July 2006

NOV 06, 2007 04:42 PM

OK, thanks; both are talking about an extreme effect which requires a very large (planetary-scale wink ) influence, not the lesser effects that humans can manage. That's what I figured.

Re the tipover point: Perhaps you should try working it out? IIRC, the various data for water vapour are easily available. I'd be interested to see what the parameters are. I guess the solar irradiation and global albedo would be the place to start?

Tyvron

Tyvron

Ann Arbor, MI
September 2007

NOV 07, 2007 03:00 AM

The influence of humans may be small, but it's still enough to cause disruptions in climate and weather patterns. Over a period of time, the effects of that relatively tiny contribution adds up, which potentially could have dramatic effects on the environment.

As for the tipover point, short of a computer model (which I have neither access to or experience with), anything I calculate by hand would be a rough estimate at best, plus I honestly have the time right now to look up all the numbers and equations and put serious effort into coming up with an answer. I come to the internet to escape from homework, not take on more of it. wink

Toku666

Toku666

Columbus, OH
May 2004

NOV 07, 2007 04:10 AM

So... Junk science "news" with junk science commentary? Brilliant.

"Are we still evolving? Yeah, I would guess so" got mega-LOLZ from me.

"What we should ask is: is our children evolving?"

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