39 Days To Iowa

/media/news/22713/1.jpg

Oh, shit. We are now officially getting down to it. The Iowa “we’re a special state” caucus is on January 3rd and there are 45 delegates up for grabs. Five days later the New Hampshire primary will be held and that tiny, weird state will cough up 22 delegates. I think it is fucking bullshit that Iowa gets to hold the first primary every year and make an enormous impact on the presidential election because based on recent candidates; they are sucking at their picks.

The big news out of Iowa is that Hillary is beginning to drop. The latest poll has her numbers sinking from 43% in September to 26% now. That is a plummet and puts her in second place behind Obama, who comes in at 30%. Edwards is bringing up the rear with 22%.

The way voters are talking, it sounds like the last thing they want is Hillary Clinton, regardless of how the media is trying to make her sound “inevitable.”

And according to the Washington Post-ABC News poll, more voters are looking for "new direction and new ideas" than are those who believe "strength and experience" are the most important qualities in a Democratic presidential candidate.

New direction, new ideas = Obama. Old ideas, old direction = Hillary. There’s more.

Clinton comes in 4th on which Democrat is most "honest and trustworthy" -- 27% Obama, 18% Edwards, 14% Richardson, 13% Clinton.

Fourth. That is incredibly poor for the “leading” presidential candidate. The only guy I know of who won a presidential election when people did not consider him “honest and trustworthy” was Nixon. In ’68, he hit the road and had a bunch of townhall meetings, basically winning over people because of his knowledge and intellect. Americans didn’t like him but they thought he would do a better job. After eight years of Bush I don’t know if that is going to fly for Hillary.

In less than 50 days, we are going to be down to two candidates. Most likely, Obama and Clinton. That is when I believe we will really begin to see the Clinton likeability factor. People will begin leaving their favorite candidate, as Edwards, Richardson, Dodd, and the rest fall way. Where will those people go? I can’t see very many of Edward's followers going to Hillary because she is seen as a corporate beast and he is running a populist campaign.

Edwards has also been falling in Iowa and those votes are going to either Obama or Richardson. They are clearly not jumping over to Hillary. But Hillary is not giving up and has recently flooded the state with operatives. The only problem is that everyone already knows Hillary, which means more organizers isn’t going to make a difference. Almost everyone has made up their mind about Hillary and voters are now picking between the guys they don’t know: Richardson and Obama.

In New Hampshire, Clinton has a bigger lead but she is also starting to slip. Edwards is in a dead heat with Richardson, but he is falling while Richardson is going up. If Richardson finishes ahead of Edwards, the southern ex-Senator will be in pretty, bad shape and may be close to calling it a day.

If Obama has a good showing in Iowa, which is how it is looking now, he could be riding a huge wave of good time feelings. Headlines will be screaming that he kicked the ass of the ex-President’s wife. More money comes flooding in and he is off and running. At that point, Clinton will have to go very negative, which coming from an unlikable person never goes over well. She already started last week and it was rather pathetic.

I believe I have the right kind of experience to be the next President. With a war and a tough economy, we need a President ready on Day One to bring our troops home from Iraq and to handle all of our other tough challenges. Now voters will judge whether living in a foreign country at the age of 10 prepares one to face the big, complex international challenges the next President will face.

Ah, yes, he doesn’t have any foreign experience. Slam. Or was it?

Obama's retort: "I was wondering which world leader told her that we needed to invade Iraq."

And game over. That is a quick and easy ass kicking by Obama. Note to Hillary: If you are going to talk shit about someone not having any experience, make sure your own experience doesn't suck.

Will his lack of foreign policy experience be a problem? Yep. Will anyone who voted to go into Iraq be able to call him on it? Nope. Certainly the voters in Iowa are taking his foreign policy experience into account and they are still moving in his direction. He's also got this big likeability/sexy thing going on. That is always tough to beat.

Clinton is on top right now in nationwide poll, but that does not mean shit. If Obama pulls off Iowa, he heads into New Hampshire with a lot of momentum. If he then manages to pull off win in the granite state, then Hillary is fucked going into South Carolina. The primary season will only last three weeks after that and all the spinning of “inevitable” over the past month by her campaign will bite her in the ass.

For the record, I don’t want either one of them. (I’m a racist/sexist.)

web address: http://suicidegirls.com/news/all/22713/39-Days-To-Iowa/