It's Up to You, New York, New York

Presidential election cycles are apparently getting longer and longer. It seems like Bush had just been inaugurated into his second term when people were already throwing around their lists of potential 2008 contenders, and fundraising for those candidates is certainly well underway. Maybe it's just wishful thinking that if everyone focuses on the next president we can safely ignore the dangerous, bumbling idiot who we're stuck with for another year and a half. Whatever the reason, candidacy for the 2008 election has generated more interest, earlier than in previous presidential elections. And according to a recent CNN poll, the leading Republican and Democratic candidates are both from New York.

Republicans favor former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani for the GOP presidential nomination in 2008, while Democrats are looking toward Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York for their nominee, according to a CNN poll released Thursday.

Thirty-one percent of the 432 poll respondents who identified themselves as Republicans chose Giuliani from a list of potential 2008 nominees, according to the survey conducted by Opinion Research Corp. on behalf of CNN.

The next closest choices were Sen. John McCain of Arizona, with 20 percent, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, with 12 percent.

No other Republican broke out of the single digits, and 14 percent of respondents said they were unsure about their choice.

Among the 517 identifying themselves as Democrats, 37 percent chose Clinton, and 20 percent favored former Vice President Al Gore.

The 2004 Democratic presidential nominee, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, and Kerry's running mate, former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, trailed with 11 percent each.

All other Democrats fielded 3 percent or less in the survey, while 8 percent of the respondents said they were unsure about their choice.
Interesting choices. I wouldn't bet on either one to successfully snag the presidency though.

People seem to forget that before 9/11, Rudy Giuliani was a controversial figure even in New York city, where his lax attitude on police brutality and penchant for artistic censorship earned him a less than stellar reputation amongst those interested in civil and political liberties. Coupled with his Catholic, Italian heritage (which is still an issue for many, particularly in the Republican party,) the fact that he's a divorcee, making a "family values" style campaign unlikely, and his New York city origins (which don't exactly play in Peoria) and his mild, broad appeal seems better suited for a general election than the intensely partisan Republican primary we're bound to see this year.

And then of course, there's HIllary Clinton. It's unclear whether her polling numbers are a result of her actual popularity or the dearth of appealing Democratic candidates at this point in time. Al Gore has made more of a name for himself since his failed attempt in 2000 than he had before, but he already has so much baggage, he's likely to still be getting (erroneously) accused of "inventing the internet" if he chooses to run. But if Hillary is the front-runner then the Democrats are in serious trouble. While many Democrats (myself included) think the US is long overdue for a female commander-in-chief, Hillary remains one of the most divisive figures in American politics. Her Democratic credentials seem impeccable given her marriage to party darling Bill, but her voting record is much closer to the center than the left, and her criticism of the Iraq war has been a case of too litte, too late. All of which tempers enthusiasm for her amongst more liberal Democratic voters, particularly given the enthusiasm with which they tossed Joe Lieberman, another famous "moderate" to the curb in Connecticut. On the right side of the aisle her name alone is sufficient to turn Republicans into red-faced ranters calling her "Hitlery" amongst other unsavory titles and fantastizing about rooting out her "lesbian conspiracy." And Clinton is also the junior senator from New York, which is bound to bring the standard "northeastern liberal" accusation from pundits that still seems to work.

While Hillary might survive the Democratic primaries due mostly to the sheer, brute force of her campaign (she's raised an enormous amount of money already) it seems like a stretch to believe that even given the current derision for all things Bush, that she could win a national election. Particularly if paired off against candidates like John McCain or Rudy Giuliani.

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