I don't know one other person who really knows what's going on there. Impressed.

no amount of training and support was ever going to help the Georgians, they are just numerically overmatched. They seem, from their actions and words, to be waiting for the UN and the US to come to their aid, but it's not going to happen. On the US' end, it's a logistical impossibility with our forces already heavily engaged in the Middle East. Even if they weren't, the size of the military force that Russia has in the reigon (Chechnya being right next door to Ossetia), makes a military victory impossible. The EU is going to sit this one out in all but diplomatic methods, and even then they won't be too strenuous about it. Why? Russia is the world's single largest oil and natural gas producing country and it has a majority of the pipelines running from Central Asia to Europe. Germany alone relies on Russia for just under half of it's natural gas and heating oil. Not only that but Russia is making a play to consolidate all of its grain production, or most of it, into a single consortium. And while it won't be the single greatest producer of grain, it'll be high enough to where if it were to suddenly deny its grain shipments, it could skyrocket the price of grain on the market. oh and that oil and natural gas strangle hold...guess where the only viable pipeline that circumvents Russia is.....that's right...it goes through Georgia...operated by BP.

it's going to be a fun mess to see how it all gets figured out. I think Georgia can expect to lose Ossetia, though it may retain limited control of the pipeline. I don't think this will halt the expansion of NATO anywhere but in Georgia. Poland and Czecgh are far too close to the heart of Europe for Russian to make any real plays there yet. And besides...I think the Russians have wised up to the reality of things. They aren't nearly as interested in controlling vast areas of territory as they are in controlling massive amounts of basic commodities....like oil and grain.

let's be honest, georgians trained by american, french and israeli forces don't stand much chance against the wall of russian troops bearing down on them.

now, if the georgians had american, french and israeli air cover, it might be a different story.

and putin fighting an effective campaign? how so? he's 'fighting' a 'war' he can't really lose. the only way he falls back is if he decides to. he might get strong armed into leaving georgia by international pressure, but we all know that the georgian forces are no match for russia's army. at best, he's testing the waters to create a new set of buffer zones between him and the west. and that's not good for anyone.

you've encapsulated the clusterfuck that is current affairs nicely here. the global petroleum wars are off to a predictable start, no? (beginning with shock and awe, of course. or arguably the invasion of kuwait)


i attribute this to my gender but as usual in trying to comprehend war i process words like "effective campaign", "missile defense", and "sovereignty over South Ossetia in the face of Russian opposition" but in my mind it turns to mush in the face of images like these:

I seen your previous posts about UK TV shows. Check out the Kevin Bishop show and the Fast Show!!