NEWS: Tactical Animal: Sorry Folks, Election’s Over, Donkey Out Front Shoulda Told Ya

CULTURE: Tactical Animal: Sorry Folks, Election’s Over, Donkey Out Front Shoulda Told Ya

by ChrisSick

In which we analyze exactly how many blowjobs Bill Clinton deserves to be given, the death and resurrection of the post-convention poll bounce, and the alternative universes of the GOP.



Got-damn, Bill, you lookin' mighty fine.

If you haven't seen former President Clinton's speech at the DNC yet, I would suggest that you:

A. Consider moving out from underneath that rock you're living under.

AND

B. Pucker up your best blowjob lips, 'cause after watching that speech, you're gonna wanna properly congratulate the man what gave it.

And — goddamn — he deserves it! Bill Clinton didn't just make a persuasive statement for Barack Obama's reelection, he made a powerful argument for liberalism as the solution to our current economic malaise, as well as the pathway to future prosperity in a technocratic global economy. And, in doing so, he slid a rhetorical ice pick straight into the lungs of every Republican attack raised this election cycle.

Close your eyes. Repeat that line while doing your best Clinton imitation. Punctuate the pauses with a subtle point of your thumbnail. Turn out the lights. Take it slow. Point that thumb. And then, you try and tell me you aren't hot in the bathing-suit area. I defy you to.

Maybe it's just me. Maybe it's yet another symptom of my degeneracy into Werewolf Disease. The doctors tell me it's the most severe case they've seen since Glenn Beck was fired from Fox News for finding new sides of his mouth to lie out of. And, worse, they tell me that there's no cure – but for the reelection of Barack Hussein Obama.

But there's good news on that front. Friends, countrymen, election junkies — I give you the death and resurrection of the post-convention bounce:

The Nate Silver post Wright refers to makes for predictably fascinating reading, but let's cut to the back of the page, here:


[source: Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight]

That is what a post-convention bounce ought to look like. The Real Clear Politics’ average of polls that I typical cite shows a disappointing average of +1.6 for the President. But when you start to tease out the numbers, you see why that’s misleading – namely that the majority of the polls being averaged are from the middle of last week. The two best indicators — Rasmussen and Gallup's daily tracking polls — both show a much greater amount of heat for the President, weighing in as of today (9 Sept, 2012) at +4 for the President from Rasmussen and +5 from Gallup, despite the variations of voter models and house effects for each.

Meanwhile, Silver's indicators show a 6.7% increase in the odds of the President winning reelection, a 0.6% increase in the popular vote to his favor, and an increase of 11.4 votes in the Electoral College (for a total of 316.9). Intrade — my other handy predictor — shows a 3.5% increase in the odds of Obama winning compared to the post-RNC numbers, that settled into a +2.5% increase for a current 58.3% chance of reelection for Obama.

Now, as much fun as I'm having seeing how many times I can work the words “Bill Clinton” and “blowjob” into the same sentence, obviously, the former President wasn't solely responsible for the success of the convention. Other highlights included:

• Julian Castro's keynote, which reminded some of Obama's 2004 speech that broke the then-Junior Senator onto the national scene.


• The First Lady’s speech, which made voters (the ones who aren't racist jackasses, at least) fall in love with her all over again.


• Joe Biden, who proved that he can be at least as classy as the dude from the Dos Equis ads.


• And the President, who was, well, the President, and there.

Okay, so the President either underperformed or purposefully decided to leave his A-game at home. And we could dissect, at length, the myriad reasons why this may be true.

But, really, there's no need to. Because it’s irrelevant.

If Romney had gotten a meager +1.5 bounce out of his convention and Obama performed roughly the same, examining why his speech was so muted in comparison to previous examples of his rhetorical abilities would be a worthwhile exercise. But it simply does not matter. The Democrats clearly had a more successful convention than the Republicans, even by completely meaningless measures.

Except in the alternative universe that so many Republicans seem to enjoy residing in.

One of the advantages to being an occasional blogger for a well-known alt-pinup site as opposed to being, say, Dick Morris, is that I don't have to make sudden, off-the-cuff predictions that can easily be refuted within days. Also, it means I don't have to wake up every day being Dick Morris.

Presumably, after writing that, Dick swallowed another pint of LSD and decided the rest of the universe simply does not exist.

The rest of the GOP decided, even before the convention, that the strongest line of attack against Obama would be to recycle the Reagan question of Carter, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”

For those under the didn't-hear-about-Clinton's-speech rock who revel in being ignorant of all salient facts, two things to be aware of:

1. While overall unemployment was less under Carter (about 7% compared to 8% under Obama), other economic indicators, such as inflation and interest rates were much, much, much higher. So high, in fact, the Misery Index became a popular reference point to better understand the pain caused by economic conditions of life during the Carter administration. Obama's highest score on the Misery Index is still below Carter's lowest.

2. Another relevant detail to keep in mind when considering this argument is that we're not losing nearly one million jobs a month, like we were in early 2009.



See that giant fucking dip in the middle of January, 2009? Yeah, over that shit.

But the Republican alternate universe isn't simply home to bizarre economic statistics or surreal interpretations of events. It's also home to a completely different definition of “facts” than here in the regular ol’ universe:

There seems to be a sense among many Republicans that the lack of lies told at the DNC — as compared to the RNC — reflected by the lack of the media's debunking and citing said lies, proves media bias. James Fallows (who, I believe, first used the phrase “post-truth” that so frighteningly describes our current discourse) sums it up nicely:

Oh, Republicans. Please, never change. Never cease to be so amazingly, mind-blowingly insane.

Except, wait.

Actually do change, since you're killing our Democracy.

There's 57 days, 12 hours, 35 minutes, and 12 seconds left before election day and no cure yet in sight.



Related Posts
Tactical Animal: Politics In The Post-Truth Era
Tactical Animal: Now We’ve Got Ourselves A Race

I've always heard that Clinton is a political genius, and I thought I understood it, but then he scored points off the GOP by praising George W.

That man is a fucking genius.

Awesome article, it makes me excited for the election. I have been more in support of Gary Johnson, but between the two frontrunners I would of course choose Obama, like I did last election.
Bill Clinton-amazing. Someone get this man a cold beer and a hot hooker.

Very nice - gotta love it .

"When are you going to attack Biden?
Well, when he lies?"



Good job!

That is if everyone who wants to vote for Obama can vote or have the vote actually counted.

Bill Clinton proved he is a better president. I'm an independant and all I know is that this country is in big trouble. I want someone who know what they are doing. I couldn't care less what letter they have after their name. I have just lived through 3.5 years of misery, and watched everyone around me suffering. Do I think Romney will be a better president? No! But I have watched a president who has tried to blame everyone else for everything.

What I see right now is the first everyone gets a trophy president. President Obama is not a winner. A winner takes charge and cares for everyone. Not just his supporters. I haven't seen the president reach out to any independants. I guess we don't matter. Thats ok though because we vote. We are going to happily hand him his you gave it a great try trophy, and hope Romney doesn't destroy this country. Thanks for playing.

The beauty of being an independant is we don't care about party. right now we have a choice between a shit sandwich, and a peice of shit. You choose which is which. All I see is everyone trying to pollish their turd and say it's not as bad as the other one. Thing that everyone forgets we have just whitnessed three years of misery because of someone who has no clue. I'll be happy when he is shown the door. Just my opinion it doesn't really matter because I don't belong to any party, and the canidates let me know every time they talk.

I don't like Obama much either; like I truly, deeply hate that motherfucker; but do you really think that Mitt-fucking-Romney and Paul-fucking-Ryan are going to ease your misery and that of the people you know? Mitt Romney, who made millions upon millions dismantling American companies and shipping jobs overseas? Paul Ryan who wants to completely gut every social safety net and jobs-training program for persons who are out of work?

There are a lot of valid criticisms that can be made of Obama, but being the cause of the misery we've all experienced over the last four years (shit, the last fucking decade for me) is not one of them. The blame for that rests squarely on the shoulders of Bush & Co. Obama can be faulted for his milquetoast response to the economic crisis; his failure to use the incredible political momentum he had coming off the election to push through a robust recovery program, real meaningful reform of the financial industry, and meaningful punitive action against those who caused it, but he's not the root cause of the shit we've been living through.

Hell, if for no other reason, you should vote Democratic for the sake of every woman that you know and care about, so that the Republicans will keep their laws off their vaginas. That's my reason for going out to vote this year. I had been planning on staying home this election, but the continued idiocy spewing forth from Republicans on the subject of women's bodies is just something I can't abide.

Was the chart not big enough?

See the thing is I don't blame President Obama for the economy. He was completely unprepaired to lead his party. He was handed a free pass to be the all time greatest president in history. He had a huge majority in the house, and a two thirds majority in the senate that could do anything they wanted. What ended up happening was he gave the reigns of power to the morons that have been destroying this country for decades.

The argument of the war on women is just for show. Abortion was legalized in 1973 and upheld by a conservitive Supreme court since. It survived Reagan, and two Bushes. it is settled law. Think about it the biggest Bible thumping moron on the planet had majorities in the house and senate, and a conservative Supreme court, Yet abortion is still legal. So the vote to protect their vaginas is a strawman argument.

What bothers me the most about the whole thing right now is the President has no control over the Federal reserve. When they say they have not raised taxes thats a lie!! Everytime the fed prints money they rip money right out of everyones pockets without you knowing. The value of our dollar has fallen dramatically because of this quanitative easing AKA Printing trillians of dollars. The inflation that is on it's way will criple almost everyone. Prices are going up as I type this. President Obama does not want to be the man in office when this hammer drops, and I want someone in office who can make difficult decisions. Right now we have the same leadership as we did when Carter was president, but we are on our way to Carter times ten. The next President is going to be handed another great depression, and I don't want someone who has no clue in charge. People are going to starve to death. Put a smile on that. The first people that are going to suffer are going to be the old retired people. The first thing to go will be Social security. Then pensions, and public assistance. When that happens the President is going to be hammered, and it doesn't matter how many taxes you raise, or how much you cut the military. We are going into hi inflation, and no one can stop that. My family, and my neighbors will be fine. I am worried about everyone else. But hey it hasn't happened yet but we are in for a wild ride here in the next couple of years. I studied economics, and history we are about to repeat because no one seems to remember the signs before the last great depression. Enjoy the ride!!!!

When the shit hits the fan please don't say we never saw it comming. I hate when someone says we didn't know just how bad it was. For some reason that sounds familliar. The minute The President said we didn't know what we were getting into, and started blaming Bush he lost my vote. Don't get me wrong I voted for him the first time. I will just not make that mistake again.

For fuck's sake, dude, are you even paying attention? Roe v Wade may or may not be in danger of being overturned, but that isn't the only aspect of abortion and women's health at large that is threatened by the GOP. Or have you not been paying attention to the creeping closure of abortion clinics through leverage of draconian local laws, the forcing doctors to essentially sexually assault women who want an abortion, and the struggle over insurance coverage of birth control?

You know what? Unless you're voting for a candidate with a plan other than "go back to doing the things that led to the 2007 crash", you seriously don't get to cast aspersions on the current plan.

You're right states and local governments can make any law they want as long as it doesn't defy federal law. Thats the beauty of this country if some little town in moose lick montana wants to set limits on laws they can. Thats why people vote.

there are limits on all kinds of rights. Laws against hate speech limit the first ammendment. The government tries to limit the Second Ammendment all the time. Thoes are constitutional rights. Abortion is just a decision in law. supported by the Nineth Ammendment. So until it's is added to the Constitution as a right it's just judgement. So in a way you're right it's in danger of being overturned. But it won't be overturned because that would be political suicide. Thats why it's just an argument the Democrats use for political reasons.

You haven't called me a racist yet. I'm surprised. I'm not! I voted for him because I'm not, but I will vote against him this time because I love my country, and I don't like what I have been seeing. I have been watching my country torn appart. I am not wearing Democratic, or Republican blinders. I am watching from the outside, and I don't like what I have been seeing.

If you have been "watching from the outside" and don't like what you are seeing, I cannot see why you would vote for either candidate.

In all sincerity I think your grasp of our nation's geopolitical position and condition is lacking in many important ways.

For starters, the idea that you thought the "War on Women" was solely related to abortion legality tells us just about all we needed to know.

Your coda of unprovoked commentary about being or not being a racist is also quite telling. Nobody has even come close to rhetoric that should make you "surprised" you haven't been called a racist. That last paragraph was just a fucking insult.

Makes it hard for the chart to do its job when you don't know what a dollar is.

Or how fiscal policy works.

Sooo... you want to paint the Democrats as "just doing it for political reasons", but you admit the thing that they're fighting is, in fact, actually happening... and you also still maintain that it's not happening.

You know there's actually a word for that? It's been with us for about sixty-three years now. The word is "doublethink". People rarely engage in it for anything other than "political reasons".

Well, uh... thanks for clearing that up, I guess?

Another fine article. Shame certain members don't get the basics, but that's not the author's fault.

Let me guess. You read that Shadow Stats site or something. Because nobody would talk this sort of shit otherwise.

Oh. OK. One of those smug "I'm an independent therefore my opinion matters more" fucktards. Got it.

Surely someone in the Administration must have taken an economics class at some point in time. Or maybe everyone should just vote for you.

Yeah, I pretty much stopped reading after "independent", too. What IS it about that statement that makes the rest of whatever follows turn into "HURP DURP BLABBADOO FART TOASTER"?

Being registered as an independent can really remove a person from the political conversation. I was registered that way, and during the primary season, I was not allowed to vote for any candidate in any race. It was a dumb move on my part, and one I rectified on Tuesday of this week.

Moreover, the problem with "independents" is they largely don't actually exist.

I'm putting research together for another column, but I've read that microtargeting basically has this election down to about 900,000 voters spread out over seven counties in four states. Those are the independents.

When you parse the survey data down to its finest level you find that basically the percentage of actual, true, non-leaning independents is somewhere below .05% of the electorate and their most common defining characteristic is they're low-information voters who often can't articulate substantive policy differences between the two candidates, so it comes down to who looks better in the debates or who has the least gaffes.

I don't think I have to add the caveat that I despise Karl Rove, but anyone underestimating his insight into how elections are won and electorates work does so at their peril. There's a reason Team Gobama is following his '04 strategy. There's a reason this is almost entirely a base election.

It's the mythology of the "free thinker", that if he's an independent he must be above all partisan political discourse and hence must be able to see things As They Really Are.

It's horseshit of course, but seems to be something that self-described independents cling to as a vital part of their self-definition.

Might want to rethink that "It's in the Bag" Bullshit with Embassies under assault and President Fore! fundraising in Vegas after apologizing to the Muslim Mob. Meanwhile unemployment is still over 8% (real unemployment 14% or higher) and the Fed just unleashed QE 3 which will result in even more inflation (and higher gas prices). At this rate it will take a lot of Democrat Vote Fraud to beat Romney.

It always amuses me when someone picks up their weekly talking points from Fox news and then keeps running with them, even when they have been debunked and many staunch Republicans condemn them. Keep on Keepin' on there buddy.

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the Idiot Right Wing Voter, exhibit A.

For god's sake, son, turn off Fox news. There's so much adrift in your post it's hard to know where to start flushing it down the toilet.

Jesus. Even more than what?