handsome_rob said:
last, to add to my previous comment, the iau definition of a planet includes a body whose gravity does, in fact, clear its path of major debris. this is one of the reasons why pluto is now a dwarf planet. anything substantial enough to impact earth would be gravitationally interacting with the earth, and would thus probably be in some sort of a resonance, again take cruithne for example. or pluto's 2:3 resonance with neptune.
but that's probably more of a buzzkill than, say, an article about impending mass extinction (even if it isn't correct, which was my whole point in the first place...)
At first I thought you'd just had your sense of humor removed, but now I'm fascinated at how wrong you are. You're actually claiming that there's never been a meteor impact event on Earth or any other planet in our solar system?
I'm fascinated at how wrong you are. You're actually claiming that there's never been a meteor impact event on Earth or any other planet in our solar system?
it's awesome how people put words in others' mouths.
no, i never implied, said, or otherwise suggested that there have never been meteor impacts.
the fact of the matter is, whenever astronomers and physicists detect new bodies in near-earth orbits, they calculate the likelihood of a collision and generally speaking, it is along the one-in-a-billion type of probability.
what i am suggesting is that a lot of objects affected by earth's gravity tend to do odd things in order to avoid collisions. such as, say, orbiting in a horseshoe shape or orbiting a lagrange point as opposed to the sun or the earth itself.
any idiot knows about meteor showers, craters in mexico and arizona and the likelihood that something rather large hit tunguska.
however, i just think it's foolish to make a big deal (for humor or not) about the likelihood that a cataclysmic impact is at all likely when it is, simply, not.
the big picture here, though, and it pertains to the sense of humor being removed, is that my original comment was made when my sarcasm and humor meters were shut down to conserve brain power. i was beyond trashed, as i explained, so it's not nearly as big a deal as i may have thought it was, say, the other night when i first commented.
all the same, i get irritated when even the notion of something like this is brought up without any kind of reason other than "hey, i bet this would make a great story."
hence, i continued my argument that the likelihood of a catastrophic impact the likes of which bruckheimer and bay profit greatly from portraying, is as close to nothing as what matters at this point.
the fossil record shows that we seem to get a mass extinction every 26 million years, and the last was about ten or fifteen million years ago, if i recall. we're not due for the theoretical dark star "nemesis" to bump rogue comets at us any time soon, nor are there four-mile-wide comet nuclei or asteroids remotely near our orbit, except for the ones that, as i mentioned, do crazy things to avoid collision.
that's the funny thing about orbital mechanics. some bizarre shit happens, but the general effect is to pull energy from one body and transfer it to another in order to find some sort of equilibrium.
for a better example, i would suggest looking up plutinos or other trans-neptunian objects which orbit at high inclinations, cross numerous planetary orbits, and all have absolutely zero chance of actually hitting any of the planets whose orbits they cross.
the gist, i guess, is that maybe we should all leave the calculation of the likelihood of a mass extinction to the people who truly understand these matters better than we, the laypeople debating the entire concept on a forum on a porn site.
of course, if anyone here has a degree in physics and would like to add to this discussion, they can feel free. otherwise, i think this is done. we are not going to die. at least not like that. anything that earth hasn't already shifted out of its way gravitationally has probably hit it and killed something hundreds of millions of years ago.
and let's not get started on telling someone outright that they are wrong in opining on a commentary article on this newswire. when did i ever say anyone else was incorrect? i just said that the likelihood is slim to none and that we should not use it as propaganda to rile the people up.
FYI, I didn't recommend getting out more because you know a lot of things about a lot of things. I, too, am one of those people who know a lot of things about a lot of things (or I know where to look it up). I made my recommendation based on you taking seriously what everyone else was laughing about. You follow?
handsome_rob said:
the fossil record shows that we seem to get a mass extinction every 26 million years, and the last was about ten or fifteen million years ago, if i recall. we're not due for the theoretical dark star "nemesis" to bump rogue comets at us any time soon,
I hope you're not trying to imply that we're less likely to have big rocks fall on our heads because we're 'not due yet'.
As far as I am concerned, it's a simple matter of assessing risk versus effort. Yes, chances are extremely slim that we'll get hit by a big one any time soon, but if it happened, we'd be royally screwed. So it would be extremely neat to have some kind of contingency plan, just in case. What Uncognitive's very entertaining article seems to be telling me is that for the time being we don't have one of those. I for one am all for throwing a few less bombs on Iraqis and spend the money to let some clever monkeys think harder about, you know, how we would if we ever had to.
I'm seeking investors for the Solution Of The Future! (keyboard lacks tm icon) The asteroids will board the Modern Skyway Monorail at any number of convenient locations and be whisked along their way enjoying breathtaking views of our fair planet while pleasant music refreshes and relaxes!
Uncognitive
Brooklyn, NY
May 2003
OCT 14, 2007 06:43 PM