Hugo Chavez Dies

It's good to see a native Venezuelan participate in the conversation. Thank you.

Chavez was definitely corrupt - I don't think anyone will arguing against that point. Likewise, I don't know enough about the medical system to comment on it in an informed manner (I know the basics about the Barrio Adentro system with Cuban doctors, but that's about it).

As far as inflation goes, though, the Chavez years were actually lower than the preceding presidencies. I'm not sure why so many critics of Chavez focus on inflation under his regime as a problem given that it's an improvement over what preceded it, particularly since 1988:
Source.

Moreover, experts say that the currency devaluation hasn't caused core inflation. A good overview of Venezuela's economy is here. For a TLDR version, note that:

- Between 1980 and 1998 (i.e. before Chavez), Venezuela's per capita GDP declined by 14%.
- Venezuela has faced two economic crises since Chavez came to power (the 2002-2003 oil strike and the worldwide economic downturn in 2009).
- Even with those crises, economic growth has been 2.5% annually under Chavez (4-5.6% aside from the two major crises).
- From 1980 to 1998, inflation was 34% per year. Under Chavez, it's been 22% per year.
- Currency devaluations have only led to short term increases in inflation without increasing the core rate.
- Venezuela's internal debt remains low and its external debt remains moderate.
- College attendance has doubled since 2004.*
- Poverty has dropped 38% and extreme poverty has dropped 58% since 1999.
- The inequality index for Venezuela is now one of the best in the Western Hemisphere (2nd only to Canada if I'm not mistaken).

*While not in that report, it's also useful to note that only 50% of the population had access to primary education before 1999. Now over 70% of the population does.

Also note that I'm not an economist. Someone like TheFuckOffKid would be better suited to interpret economic data and comment on the economy of Venezuela. That said, while middle class Venezuelans certainly have some valid criticisms of Chavez, I can't say I agree with any arguments that he destroyed Venezuela. The country has weathered the global economic crisis better than many nations and continues to have respectable economic growth. Of course, it still has incredibly high crime rates and other urgent problems, but it seems to have sustainable economic and social progress for the near future.

Chavez was a fake socialist, he was amasing a huge while pretending to fight for the poor, he did some good stuff for them, but i was just to cover up the fact he was getting bloody rich.

He was a mobster, just like Vatican pope, getting on the excuse he was taking care of the poor.

El Presidente to be interred Lenin-style for all eternity

TY RedBstrd

Whoops, that should have been 50% higher (as in: 34% is fifty percent higher than 22%)...

More importantly, Brazil's former president da Silva wrote an opinion piece on Chavez today. It's worth a read: full article. To summarize, he applauds Chavez for making social justice a topic of discussion across political circles in Latin America (and making good on enough of the promises to the Venezuelan people to improve the lives of millions), congratulates him on his work for Latin American unity, but then reminds Chavez's successors that they have a lot of work to do to strengthen democratic institutions, civil society, and the political culture of Venezuela.

For some highlights, he wrote:

Disgusting.

I think the balance sheet on him is slightly more to the good than the bad but he's certainly not someone who needs to be celebrated for decades to come. Venezuela does not need to maintain a cult of personality around Chavez.

Speaking of Lenin, here's a fun, and ironic fact: Chavez died on the 60th anniversary of this guy's death...

SPOILERS! (Click to view)

RedBstrd

Mr Chavez is certainly a bit of an enigma and it's difficult to get a sense that the things being said or written about him as a man or a leader are either the complete truth or complete fabrications. He was so polarizing and had people that adored him and thoroughly despised him. Often times the different accounts of his administration are totally contradictory.

Case in point, the US media tends to describe him as a passionate leader with strong opinions but poor management skills who basically ran the Venezuelan economy into the ground, despite some efforts to assist the poor. RedBstrd's stats seem to show a different story. However very little is mentioned in the press about Chavez acquiring a huge personal fortune, yet those rumors persist.

There is little dispute that he befriended questionable allies in the form of various anti-American despots such as Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But was he also perhaps driven to paranoia of the US by Bush's willingness to have him violently removed in a coup or perhaps killed?

I wonder if his legacy would perhaps be a bit different if his enemies hadn't caused him to go a bit batshit over the years.

In all fairness, R00kers raised a good point about Lula accomplishing much of the same without all of the drawbacks of Chavez's rule. For proper context, we should also note that Venezuela's levels of GDP growth are roughly consistent with what we see across the region from both conservative and fellow progressive governments. Venezuela isn't an economic miracle but it's also not an economic disaster; it's just a fairly healthy state that's doing a good job weathering the global economic crisis (and oil might be a large reason why).

That said, I think Chavez deserves credit for keeping pace economically with the rest of the region when the Venezuelan economy wasn't doing so hot when he took over - and because he was able to accomplish some really good things (cutting poverty and extreme poverty so much, increasing access to education, etc.) while maintaining that economic growth.

For the rumors about Chavez's family wealth, I decided to look into their source and now I'm becoming suspicious of the claims. Everything that I can see points back to Gerald "Jerry" Brewer of the Criminal Justice International Associates (CJIA). Their website is here and a sample of the president's (Brewer's) writing about Venezuela is here. People quote Brewer as saying that Chavez stole 10% of the nation's trillion dollar oil sales (or $1 billion), and some repostings double that figure to $2 billion. However, I don't see any current articles/reports where the CJIA mentions the figures about Chavez's alleged embezzling, except for this video (in Spanish) where he says that it's estimated that Chavez has $0.8 billion. We don't know who is supposed to be making that estimate and we have no sources for the claim. Overall, the website looks extremely unprofessional, Brewer's writing is ideologically driven, and I can't see any sources for any of his anti-Chavez positions or the accusations of embezzling, which leads me to suspect that the whole argument is slander. The CJIA just doesn't seem like a reliable source of information and they haven't made their claims available for public scrutiny.

Until I see a credible source for that info, I'm not persuaded.

Speaking of the wealth of presidents, this article about the president of Uruguay (Jose Mujica) circulated a while ago. For those who haven't read it, I would encourage you to do so. He's been labeled the "poorest president in the world" for his spartan lifestyle (he donates 90% of his salary to charity).

I admire the way Mujica carries himself. I don't know much about how effective an executive he is, but he seems to be a decent human being.

It's interesting to note that we have created memorials of granite to various leaders (not sure who funded the Lincoln memorial), Mt. Rushmore will be there for centuries, yet I am uncomfortable with the idea of an embalmed body being put on public display.

Venezuela may not need an embalmed body, but it's a pretty good indication that Maduro feels insecure enough to need a shrine he can have as a constant reminder for the people.

RedBstrd i find very interesting you keep citing all the economical growth and such about it, but when you put in perspective some numbers in comparison to how the venezuelan's feel there's not a real equivalence between numbers and reality.

We never had the decrease in the food market as it is now, never had such electrical power cuts as we do now and what people were able to afford with their wages before was way much more to what they do now. The basic "market shopping" for groceries have increased so much is ridiculous and that is only if you happen to actually find the items/food you need.

About the embalming and if Maduro is stupid, yeah i agree on all, they are just trying to see how they keep the power but he really is lacking the "charisma" that Chavez had, however i'm afraid they might win the elections.

If you'd like us to consider something beyond the numbers, please provide a credible source of information for us about the other issues you mention. I'm happy to get introduced to new information as long as it's from somewhere reliable.

Dude, your inflation figure was sourced to the Venezuelan government. It disagrees with the assessments of at least the IMF, and likely others. It's not exactly a credible source.

I don't disagree with many of your conclusions, but the electrical cutoffs that Sper reports are now widely reported.

The Wall Street Journal, Huffington Post, Guardian, CNBC, Reuters, and the New York Times all cite the Venezuelan Central Bank for their data on inflation in Venezuela. Moreover, the IMF relies on Venezuelan government officials for their data as well. See their summary of the economy of Venezuela in 1996, for example (and look at the "sources" explanation). I haven't seen any numbers from the IMF other than their projections from 2011 about what they thought that inflation would be in 2012 and 2013 (they anticipated 32% in 2011 and 30% in 2012).

So, yes, relying on the government of Venezuela isn't the best way to get data - we agree on that point. The reason why I did it, though, is because both the media and IMF rely on the same data (subject to whatever modifications the IMF staff applies) and I'm not sure where we can get a more reliable source.

By the way, if you want to use only IMF data, check out a chart from the same site as that last one: link. The numbers are slightly higher but the trajectory is still the same, with higher inflation prior to Chavez. Likewise, we can look at the purchasing power of Venezuela over time, courtesy of IMF figures: link.

The most recent IMF data on Venezuela that I've seen is their 2011 report. See page 193 for Venezuela's data. The data show that the average from 1993-2002 was 39.9% and the highest project for Venezuela (2011) is 32.2%. In other words, the inflation for that decade was 124% of their highest estimate. If we look at the highest confirmed (i.e. non-projected) figure by the IMF (28.2% in 2010), the 1993-2002 average is 134% of the highest Chavez-era year.

Note that I have no idea what the IMF relies on for their 2011 report's data. Those data might not be based on the Bank of Venezuela's numbers.

I'm aware of food and electricity shortages, plus I'm giving Sper the benefit of the doubt on the question of medical care because I can't find anything really informative about that topic.

Sper is asking that we disregard the numbers because she feels that they don't tell us what it's actually like in Venezuela. I'm definitely open to that possibility and I have no horse in this race (if she provides information that shows that life is demonstrably worse under Chavez, then I'd be more critical of his administration, considering it more of a failure than a success). What I'm asking of her - and perhaps I wasn't clear enough on this point - is that she give me/us a reliable source which can do a good job of showing why, despite the figures that look at least moderately good, we should consider Chavez's management of the nation to be disastrous.

I'm not trying to be a jerk when asking for a reliable source, by the way. I'm just aware that Venezuela is the subject of ideological battles and I'm suspicious of information coming from both supporters and critics of Chavez. The question of Chavez's stealing is a good example of why we should be careful with the sources. He undoubtedly was a wealthy man (and quite likely corrupt) but I'm suspicious of the claims that he stole $1-2 billion, because the source of that information looks sketchy. Just as with the corruption, we know Venezuela has various shortages. What we (or at least I) don't know is the scale. Is it sufficient to suggest that we should consider the Chavez years an unmitigated disaster despite Chavez's success with poverty relief and so on? Possibly, but I'm sincerely asking for the most persuasive yet reliable information that Sper can offer on that issue.

If she can put forth something conclusive enough, I'd withdraw my lukewarm approval of Chavez's overall performance and shut up.

i'm not saying what i say in order to make anybody shut up, honestly i have no time currently to look for great data in english, most of my look up on my country info is in spanish.

About the cut-outs of electricity, when they started they were schedule to happen for 2 hours every day changing the time of these weekly, my mom worked for the national electric company for 19 years and they knew there was a need for maintenance and expansion in this sector, did the government did anything about it? i'm gonna say they didn't do -enough- or maybe nothing (don't have the data to show you) except the fact that i did went through this issues, the electrical cuts currently don't have a schedule, but they happen constantly they can go from 30 minutes to hours, the worst part is when chavez blamed an "iguana" of this issues.

Also, he fixed this issue making the capital be "cut-off" free while the rest of the cities like mine kept having those all the time.

i'll try coming back with some data when i have time, for now, all i can say is that his government wasn't good, in my opinion and in a bunch of millions of people, the polls for the last election show this, unfortunately i'm going to say that because the majority of the people in my land are not precisely rich, it was an easy way to buy their votes when you keep giving them "free" stuff or money for their votes.

I can read Spanish (but audio in Spanish is a bit harder for me).