Syria: Intervention Looming?

Recent reports have claimed that Assad may be on the verge of using chemical weapons against the rebels, something that the U.S. has stated will prompt intervention. Assad has said previously he wouldn't use them on his own people, but if his situation worsens, who can tell what he'll resort to?

Only silver lining is that, unlike in Iraq, the U.S. more than likely would be joined by allies other than Britain and Lorvenstein, or whatever tiny countries George Bush made up to make it sound like he had a coalition.

I'm pretty sure the last thing Obama wants to do is open up another military front, but if Assad unleashes sarin bombs and nerve gas, he may not have much of a choice.

Turkey is more likely to go in and do most of the fighting actually. They have the second largest Nato force behind the United states. Pretty much expect them to flatten Assad's airforce and then his armor so that the rebels have an easier go of things.

The real danger is if Assad's regime goes to ground with possession of WMD's, conversely stockpiles could be looted by others as the security situation continues to deteriorate. The best outcome is a negotiated exit plan for the regime, whereby all such weapons are conditionally secured and safely destroyed.

Seeing as Secretary Clinton met with her Russian counterpart today in response to the chemical weapons threat, it appears that the regime may quickly be losing favor with Russia. Of course the Syrian government has denied that they have mobilized to activate any of their weapons stockpile, stating that it's just a cooked up story by the US and it's allies as a premise to intervene on behalf of the rebels. There may be some truth to this, yet any action could be in response to rapidly changing conditions on the ground, especially if the Syrian military is on the verge of losing control of their WMD stores (moving them to a more secure location could easily be seen as mobilizing them).

Either way, it doesn't bode well for Assad, and the veracity of their denial is seriously in question, following footage of a helicopter dropping several rounds of what appears to be white phosphorous on rebel positions, earlier today. WP has been considered a gray area chemical weapon and it's use as an incendiary over a populated area is a violation Geneva convention, Syria's recent use of it during the day could mean it is trying to send a message about it's willingness to escalate to the use of unconventional weapons.

It would appear that the clock is ticking here and Assad's days are numbered. I just hope that it doesn't end with even more violent hostilities and unnecessary bloodshed.

I think one of the most disturbing statements to come out on this is Assad's "prediction" that the U.S. would have one of the rebel groups set of one or more of the devices as a false flag action, to justify intervention.

Which mean, of course, that if one does go off, he has given certain segments of the world justification to think it wasn't him. And to blame the U.S. (and probably Israel as well) for doing it.

It wouldn't be quite so disturbing if I didn't think that some people would believe him.

Correction: The quote didn't come from Assad, but from his Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Maqdad, who has been acting as his spokesperson in interviews with the press. But I find it hard to believe that Assad didn't tell him to say it.