France has confirmed that it has lost its top AAA credit rating from ratings agency Standard & Poor's.
The move came after world stock markets fell on reports many eurozone governments are being downgraded.
Rumours that S&P would deem the debts of up to 11 governments to be more risky sent London's FTSE 100 down 0.5% and Frankfurt's Dax 0.6%, while the Dow Jones in New York fell 0.8%.
However, reports suggest Germany will not lose its AAA rating.
Austria, like France, is also expected to lose its top AAA rating. Most other governments are on lower ratings already
France is being downgraded just one notch by S&P, to AA+.
The country still has a top AAA rating from the other two main ratings agencies, Moody's and Fitch.
The EU's top economic official has criticised a decision by Standard and Poor's to downgrade the credit ratings of nine eurozone countries.
Economic affairs commissioner Olli Rehn said the move was "inconsistent" as the eurozone was taking "decisive action" to end the debt crisis.
Other senior European officials have also hit out the move.
The downgrade - which included stripping France of its top AAA rating - was announced on Friday.
Italy, Spain, Cyprus and Portugal were cut two notches, with the latter two given "junk" ratings. Germany kept its AAA rating.
Standard and Poor's criticised the bloc's response to the crisis, saying austerity and budget discipline alone were not sufficient to fight it, and risked becoming self-defeating.
The credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's has downgraded the EU bailout fund to AA+ from AAA.
The European Financial Stability Facility's (EFSF) rating is based on the ratings of the countries that guarantee it.
S&P's downgrade of France and Austria on Friday meant there were not enough AAA rated guarantors for the fund to maintain its top rating.
The downgrade could affect the EFSF's ability to raise money cheaply.
Earlier in the day, another ratings agency, Moody's, said it would allow France to maintain its AAA rating for now, although it warned that the deterioration in France's debt position was "putting pressure" on the country's stable outlook.
S&P cut its ratings for France, Italy, Spain, Cyprus, Portugal, Austria, Slovakia, Slovenia and Malta late on Friday.
The idea of the EFSF was for countries with top credit ratings to borrow money cheaply that they could then lend on to countries that were struggling.
The credit rating of the fund depends on the credit rating of the EU countries which are backing it
Hence the recent downgrade to France and Austria's credit rating has triggered a downgrade to the EU bailout fund
This means that the EU bailout fund may be less able to borrow money cheaply to lend to struggling Eurozone countries such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy (the so-called PIIGS).
This in turn may mean that Greece etc are less able to keep up with the payments on their existing debts
Consequently, there could be a further decline in market confidence in Spanish, Italian, Greek etc bonds
This could lead to reduced demand for Italian, Spanish etc bonds (ie each time they try to auction another round of sovereign debt, they will find it harder to find buyers)
Leading in turn to an increase in the interest rates payable by Italy, Spain, Greece etc on their debts
Making it harder for them to service their debts
Which could lead in turn to further downgrades of their credit ratings
Making it even harder for them to service their debts
Causing further loss of market confidence in French etc banks exposed to Italian, Greek etc sovereign debt
Causing a further credit ratings downgrade to French etc banks
Causing the interbank lending rate to rise
Resulting in a contraction in credit availabilty and banks lending less to businesses and people
So that people spend less and businesses delay recruitment (or even cut staff) and buy in less stock
Resulting in further economic stagnation or even recession not just in Greece, Italy etc but also in 'creditworthy' countries such as France
Leading to a further reduction to France's credit rating
Leading to a further reduction to the EU bailout fund's credit rating
Around and around it goes in a downward spiral
Maybe I am being pessimistic but it seems to me that this could lead not only to a recession in the Eurozone (and in the UK because Eurozone countries buy a lot from us) but may also greatly increase the risk of either the collapse of the Euro or the departure of a cohntry (most likely Greece) from the Eurozone.
I agree with you, except that I think there are a few additional considerations.
1) Europe is making / has made noises about a stronger, more centralized Eurozone. While I don't see this as politically viable at the moment (especially without the UK), I wonder if further descent into crisis doesn't make it more viable (even including the UK).
2) There is a quote I've heard in the past: if you owe the bank a million dollars, the bank owns you. If you own the bank a billion dollars, you own the bank. So, who holds Greek debt? And who holds the debt of those debtholders? I think Greece has a lot more power in this situation than anyone wants to let on.
Out of curiosity, how can a person keep tabs on PIIGS debt offerings?
This week's This American Life features the Planet Money team explaining the formation, flaws, and current status of the European monetary union. It's pretty high-level but it captures the main themes reasonably well.
Thanks for pointing out the TAL podcast. It really helped clarify some of the issues for me.
Ateh said:
This week's This American Life features the Planet Money team explaining the formation, flaws, and current status of the European monetary union. It's pretty high-level but it captures the main themes reasonably well.
ver0nika23 said:
Thanks for pointing out the TAL podcast. It really helped clarify some of the issues for me.
Ateh said:
This week's This American Life features the Planet Money team explaining the formation, flaws, and current status of the European monetary union. It's pretty high-level but it captures the main themes reasonably well.
Agreed. Ateh that podcast was well worth a listen and covers a lot of information in an engaging manner and without getting too technical.
China is "considering" contributing to European rescue funds, Premier Wen Jiabao has told reporters.
But Mr Wen did not make any firm commitment to assist during his news briefing with visiting German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
European leaders view China - with $3.2 trillion (£2tn) in foreign reserves - as a possible sources of funds to bail out struggling eurozone economies.
Europe is China's biggest export market, and Mr Wen reiterated that China supported a stable euro - saying it had a "great impact" on China
There's a deal on the table where Greece's private creditors will take about a 70% haircut. I'm not sure what that means in terms of actual debt reduction, though, since the major banks' debt portfolios are not part of the deal.
The Greek parliament is debating an unpopular austerity bill demanded in return for a 130bn-euro ($170bn; £110bn) bailout to avoid default
Outside parliament, police fired tear gas to disperse protesters - a BBC correspondent there said petrol bombs were thrown by angry demonstrators.
If the measures are not approved, other eurozone nations and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) say Greece will get no money from them and will face bankruptcy in March, the BBC's Europe correspondent Chris Morris reports from Athens
After reading all of these gloomy stories about credit ratings downgrades, it is heartening to read of one country which has had a credit ratings upgrade.
February 27, 2012, 6:19 p.m. ET
--Greece becomes first euro-zone country to be rated in default
--Collective action clauses a factor
--S&P expects to rate new bonds triple-C
Back to the collective action clauses in a sec... BUT... note the date on that article. It seems Greece has been in default for over a week? Shouldn't this have been headlined somewhere? Doesn't that trigger a bunch of credit default swaps and so forth?
Apparently, no. There is an organization called the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA), which decides by committee whether a default has occurred.
Now, who do you suppose would be on such a committee?
Five of the 15 members on the Greek CDS committee are from the buy side, meaning they represent investors such as mutual funds. A supermajority, 12 of the 15, is required for a credit event decision, meaning that the 10 sell-side panelists -- representing mostly major banks -- can’t ram through a decision that benefits only them.
... and also meaning the five buy-side panelists will never gain enough support for a decision that benefits them. Or at least, I can't think of many situations where the ten sell-side panelists would be inclined to say, "That agreement where we pay you if Greece defaults? Yeah, we're ready to pay you now."
Maybe I'm missing something. If not, this whole committee thing stinks to high heaven.
At any rate, it'll presumably be impossible for the committee to say that no credit event has occurred if the Greek bond swap goes through. (This swap is different from the credit default swap. This is swapping old bonds out for new ones.) And here we get back to the collective action clauses, which force the swap on all the bondholders, even the ones who don't agree to it, as long as a third of bondholders agree to it.
For the deal to go ahead, Greece needs to secure a response from just over 50 percent of those holding 177 billion euros of bonds issued under Greek law and for two-thirds of those to agree to take the deal, which will cut the value of their holdings by around 74 percent.
So that's kind of a neat trick. If I understand this correctly (I'm way out of my depth here, so please correct me if I'm wrong), Greece takes back their old bonds and issues new bonds to bondholders. The new bonds are worth much less money and also pay interest at laughably low rates - just 2% annually to start. There is no way Greece could get a loan on the "free market" at such a low rate right now because no one trusts Greece to honor its obligations.
And if the Greek bond swap doesn't go through? Ah, well then, that's a default. (At least, it is if the ISDA says so.)
Greece faces a Thursday deadline for a debt restructuring deal with private investors that is crucial to its new 130 billion euro ($172 billion) bailout package needed to avoid a chaotic default.
But it doesn't look like that will happen. It looks like the Greek government has enough of its bondholders on board to take their writedown, and has a mechanism in place to force the rest along too. So I guess this is ... good? Other than the fact that it doesn't make any sense?
The European Union has decided to suspend 495m euros ($655m; £417m) of funds due next year to Hungary, because of the country's budget deficit.
This is the first case of the EU taking action over the budget deficit of any of its members.
But the EU will allow three months for Hungary to pass more budget cuts.
The decision came as the EU also allowed Spain to run a higher deficit, leading Austria to accuse the EU of applying "double standards.
Meanwhile, Greece was upgraded by Fitch Ratings on Tuesday, after its second bailout was approved by the eurozone and it managed to win a debt swap to reduce its debt by half.
The country's sovereign debt rating was upgraded four notches, to B- from being in restricted default.
A "B" rating indicates that the debt is highly speculative and that a "material credit risk" is still present.
The government is considering issuing a new long-term bond it hopes will cut the country's interest payments for years, the BBC has learned.
A long-dated bond typically gives the government 30 years to repay, but these new bonds may be for 100 years or more.
But the BBC's business editor Robert Peston questioned the appetite for such long-term debt.
"There are few obvious natural buyers for 100-year or perpetual bonds," he said.
"The main purchasers of long-term debt are final-salary pension schemes and life companies. But both venerable British savings institutions are in decline in the UK."
There are currently eight of these perpetual gilts in existence worth some £2bn - with the oldest dating back to 1853.
The last perpetual loan was taken out to cover the cost of World War I. The 1932 war loan has an implicit interest rate of 3.9% at its current price.
Treasury officials ... said official figures reveal that the low cost of long-term interest rates will save the country £20bn in debt interest over the next five years.
It is high-order bullshit that Fitch is even allowed to operate after their shameful participation in the subprime crisis. The fact that the SEC hasn't revoked their status as an NRSRO is proof that banks have basically won the battle against regulation.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has agreed to pay 28bn euros ($36.7bn, £23.3bn) towards Greece's second bailout of 130bn euros after last week's private debt swap.
The body's approval - which was expected - is the final step in completing the long-awaited rescue fund for the eurozone's worst-hit country.
The IMF said it would pay 1.65bn euros of the money to Greece immediately.
The bailout is intended to help keep Greece funded until 2014
Wow, um, remember how in some other thread I brought up that European far-right groups, unlike in the US, are strongly opposed to austerity measures? Remember how I mentioned that Greek cops are speaking out against austerity measures? There's a direct connection, there.
Waldo_Jeffers
United Kingdom
OLD SKOOL
JAN 13, 2012 12:11 PM