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10/23/08

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leadfoot5

leadfoot5

I'm lost
July 2007

OCT 21, 2008 09:12 PM

So it looks like it's all about Pennsylvania for McPalin.

A stupid move, but maybe it's all they've got left. Does anyone see a chance in hell of them taking PA?

Clearly they're banking on the racist vote, and probably help from some nasty 527 ads featuring Rev. Wright (I hope not, but I suspect those will start appearing pretty soon), and the McCain camp is already priming the "Obama's support is soft in PA" narrative.

But still. Even if hell freezes over and it works, McCain would need to take Ohio and Florida.

emotedcreations

emotedcreations

Germany
July 2006

OCT 21, 2008 09:28 PM

Maybe they Eastern side will be distracted by the World Series.

Subrosa

Subrosa

San Francisco, CA
July 2004

OCT 21, 2008 09:56 PM

This post is a must-read on this issue.

In short: No. If he defies the odds happens to actually make a "comeback", this strategy will have nothing to do with it. Basically, he has no money, no hope of competing across the board that Obama can play on, and nothing to do other than make one last valiant and racist stand in the one "blue" state where those types of attacks might have some play.

FearTheReaper

FearTheReaper

NEWSWIRE

I'm lost

OCT 21, 2008 09:57 PM

He's done. No way he takes Pennsylvania. He doesn't have the money or the ability to campaign in all the other states that would equal the same number of electoral voters, so he's going for it.

This race is done.

It has been for three weeks.

AceT

AceT

Portland, OR
April 2004

OCT 21, 2008 09:58 PM

If you use 270 to win, McCain would have to take every swing state and a blue state in order to win.

The likelihood of that happening is less than 1%. The election is over.

leadfoot5

leadfoot5

I'm lost
July 2007

OCT 21, 2008 11:04 PM



Must-read, indeed. Nate Silver has been great, lately. (Granted, it's a hell of a lot more fun reading about this stuff win your side is winning. smile )

Anyway, my favorite part:



The big problem with such a strategy, however, is this:

4,060,647
2,917,747
869,707

Those are the current numbers of registered and active Democrats, Republicans and independents in Pennsylvania. Democrats make up more than half the total -- 52 percent, in fact -- well outdistancing the Republican's 33 percent. Suppose that McCain were to split Pennsylvania's independents with Obama and win Republicans 92-8. He would need to carry 23-24 percent of Pennsylvania's Democrats to win the state; George Bush carried 15 percent.



I heart math.

Subrosa
one last valiant and racist stand in the one "blue" state where those types of attacks might have some play.



Re: racism, assuming you're referring to Wright ... I hope, for the good of -- well, hell, for the good of everyone -- that McCain doesn't go there. But another part of me is curious to see just how much his campaign would implode -- and just how fucking terrible his "legacy" would be -- if he tried it.

Surely, somewhere in his ancient, cranky brain, he realizes that this election is out of reach, and that going nuclear with Wright would be the absolute worst decision he could make. (That's his cue to prove me wrong.)

leadfoot5

leadfoot5

I'm lost
July 2007

OCT 21, 2008 11:12 PM

AceT said:
If you use 270 to win, McCain would have to take every swing state and a blue state in order to win.

The likelihood of that happening is less than 1%. The election is over.



With their new PA scenario, which is doomed from the beginning since it relies on ... PA smile , they can afford to lose a few swing states: VA, CO, IA, and NM.

They still have to take OH, FL, NC, NV, MO. All tossups, or slight Obama leads.

FellOnEarth

FellOnEarth

Temecula, CA
April 2006

OCT 21, 2008 11:14 PM

leadfoot5 said:
I hope, for the good of -- well, hell, for the good of everyone -- that McCain doesn't go there. But another part of me is curious to see just how much his campaign would implode -- and just how fucking terrible his "legacy" would be -- if he tried it.

Surely, somewhere in his ancient, cranky brain, he realizes that this election is out of reach, and that going nuclear with Wright would be the absolute worst decision he could make. (That's his cue to prove me wrong.)


Yep, he lost his integrity long, long ago. To assume he will do the right thing is to assure you that he won't. There's only one way this is going to go if you ask me. The Wright machine is already chugging along those broken tracks. There's no way McCain can stand in it's way, so he might as well be the maverick engineer with his hand on the throttle. All aboard the Straight Talk Express and full speed ahead! But you'd better hold on folks, 'cause this here train has blown clear past its last stop and its about to plummet off of that bridge to nowhere...

Fitting end to the Republican Party's grip on power.

_kungfoo_

_kungfoo_

Los Angeles, CA
April 2005

OCT 21, 2008 11:35 PM

Endgame huh? I would like to see Chuck Norris punched in the eye.

FellOnEarth

FellOnEarth

Temecula, CA
April 2006

OCT 21, 2008 11:46 PM

_kungfoo_ said:
Endgame huh? I would like to see Chuck Norris punched poked in the eye with a +5 pointy stick.


Fixed. biggrin

abbazappa

abbazappa

Sacramento, CA
June 2006

OCT 21, 2008 11:58 PM

Aw I thought this thread was going to be about the Alex Jones "documentary" called Endgame which would be a lot more entertaining then a thread that most of us have known since the primaries. No Republican was ever going to win this election and John McCain put on a valiant effort but he has slim to none chance of pulling it off.

I do have to say Alex Jones does make a entertaining "documentary" especially Martial Law 9/11: Rise of the Police Sate which was fun to see him at the 2004 RNC convention protests... then it went to the normal foil hat area like all of his movies do.

Subrosa

Subrosa

San Francisco, CA
July 2004

OCT 22, 2008 07:27 AM

leadfoot5 said:

Subrosa
one last valiant and racist stand in the one "blue" state where those types of attacks might have some play.



Re: racism, assuming you're referring to Wright ... I hope, for the good of -- well, hell, for the good of everyone -- that McCain doesn't go there. But another part of me is curious to see just how much his campaign would implode -- and just how fucking terrible his "legacy" would be -- if he tried it.

Surely, somewhere in his ancient, cranky brain, he realizes that this election is out of reach, and that going nuclear with Wright would be the absolute worst decision he could make. (That's his cue to prove me wrong.)



I can pretty much guarantee you that someone within the campaign will bring up Wright in the next two weeks.

Quella

Quella

USA
July 2008

OCT 22, 2008 08:08 AM

I campaigned through western PA in April and Obama was not well received - I saw Hillary, McCain and ROn Paul.

But that was April. Now contacts in that area say the economy and Joe Biden have made it Obama country!!

meatpieboy

meatpieboy

Korea, D.P.R.
June 2004

OCT 22, 2008 02:42 PM

Quella said:
I campaigned through western PA in April and Obama was not well received - I saw Hillary, McCain and ROn Paul.

But that was April. Now contacts in that area say the economy and Joe Biden have made it Obama country!!



Have you heard this anecdote from there? That a campaigner was talking to a woman at her house, and she said she didn't know who they were voting for, she'd ask her husband. She yells back into the house. He yells back "We're voting for the nigger!!", and she turns to the campaigner and reiterates "We're voting for the nigger." Fucked up. I'm waiting for this to be debunked, but it's a good anecdote.

_kungfoo_

_kungfoo_

Los Angeles, CA
April 2005

OCT 22, 2008 08:18 PM

FellOnEarth said:

_kungfoo_ said:
Endgame huh? I would like to see Chuck Norris punched poked in the eye with a 5 pointy stick.


Fixed. biggrin



I approve this message.

bean

bean

STAFF

Los Angeles, CA

OCT 22, 2008 08:23 PM

magpieboy said:

Quella said:
I campaigned through western PA in April and Obama was not well received - I saw Hillary, McCain and ROn Paul.

But that was April. Now contacts in that area say the economy and Joe Biden have made it Obama country!!



Have you heard this anecdote from there? That a campaigner was talking to a woman at her house, and she said she didn't know who they were voting for, she'd ask her husband. She yells back into the house. He yells back "We're voting for the nigger!!", and she turns to the campaigner and reiterates "We're voting for the nigger." Fucked up. I'm waiting for this to be debunked, but it's a good anecdote.


That was posted on 538. Considering that their operation is talking to the people knocking on doors, I'm pretty sure that's a story they heard first-hand. In any case, I've heard similar things from other people reporting what they've heard from canvassers in Western PA.

meatpieboy

meatpieboy

Korea, D.P.R.
June 2004

OCT 22, 2008 09:11 PM

bean said:

magpieboy said:

Quella said:
I campaigned through western PA in April and Obama was not well received - I saw Hillary, McCain and ROn Paul.

But that was April. Now contacts in that area say the economy and Joe Biden have made it Obama country!!



Have you heard this anecdote from there? That a campaigner was talking to a woman at her house, and she said she didn't know who they were voting for, she'd ask her husband. She yells back into the house. He yells back "We're voting for the nigger!!", and she turns to the campaigner and reiterates "We're voting for the nigger." Fucked up. I'm waiting for this to be debunked, but it's a good anecdote.


That was posted on 538. Considering that their operation is talking to the people knocking on doors, I'm pretty sure that's a story they heard first-hand. In any case, I've heard similar things from other people reporting what they've heard from canvassers in Western PA.



Yeah, that's where I read it, and I trust that site more than many. It just seems too... urban rumor... to be true. But given what I'm hearing about the area it could be. It just encapsulates so much of America right now. I guess that's what makes it compelling.

Tarqu1n

Tarqu1n

Victoria, BC
February 2005

OCT 22, 2008 09:23 PM

I fear that in these last two weeks there is going to be some sort of national security emergency that either occurs independently or within the machinational sphere of the Republican party that will threaten/scare the American public so badly that McCain will get a squeaker.

Some sort of Hail-Mary pass by Al Qaeda to McCain, since they need him to be the angry little warmonger-in-chief that continues to bankrupt America through unwinnable quagmiric wars and high-oil prices. Funny howoil prices are now half what they were a month or so ago, leading up to election day.

I am not much of a conspiracy theorist....but I know I am not going to be the only one pacing, fretting, and checking my calendar until November 4.

Larry David is certainly doing the same.

Thistle

Thistle

SUICIDEGIRL

California, USA

OCT 22, 2008 09:27 PM

bean said:

magpieboy said:

Quella said:
I campaigned through western PA in April and Obama was not well received - I saw Hillary, McCain and ROn Paul.

But that was April. Now contacts in that area say the economy and Joe Biden have made it Obama country!!



Have you heard this anecdote from there? That a campaigner was talking to a woman at her house, and she said she didn't know who they were voting for, she'd ask her husband. She yells back into the house. He yells back "We're voting for the nigger!!", and she turns to the campaigner and reiterates "We're voting for the nigger." Fucked up. I'm waiting for this to be debunked, but it's a good anecdote.


That was posted on 538. Considering that their operation is talking to the people knocking on doors, I'm pretty sure that's a story they heard first-hand. In any case, I've heard similar things from other people reporting what they've heard from canvassers in Western PA.



Has there been any attempt to verify it or fact check at all though? I mean I don't really care, maybe it illustrates a point rather than being a literally true incident, but I don't think it's good to trust anything posted on our favorite sites.

Jace

Jace

San Francisco, CA
February 2004

OCT 22, 2008 10:28 PM

magpieboy said:

Quella said:
I campaigned through western PA in April and Obama was not well received - I saw Hillary, McCain and ROn Paul.

But that was April. Now contacts in that area say the economy and Joe Biden have made it Obama country!!



Have you heard this anecdote from there? That a campaigner was talking to a woman at her house, and she said she didn't know who they were voting for, she'd ask her husband. She yells back into the house. He yells back "We're voting for the nigger!!", and she turns to the campaigner and reiterates "We're voting for the nigger." Fucked up. I'm waiting for this to be debunked, but it's a good anecdote.



BAHAHAHA!

Racism is funny.

DevilsReject

DevilsReject

Cleveland, OH
February 2007

OCT 22, 2008 11:02 PM

bean said:

magpieboy said:

Quella said:
I campaigned through western PA in April and Obama was not well received - I saw Hillary, McCain and ROn Paul.

But that was April. Now contacts in that area say the economy and Joe Biden have made it Obama country!!



Have you heard this anecdote from there? That a campaigner was talking to a woman at her house, and she said she didn't know who they were voting for, she'd ask her husband. She yells back into the house. He yells back "We're voting for the nigger!!", and she turns to the campaigner and reiterates "We're voting for the nigger." Fucked up. I'm waiting for this to be debunked, but it's a good anecdote.


That was posted on 538. Considering that their operation is talking to the people knocking on doors, I'm pretty sure that's a story they heard first-hand. In any case, I've heard similar things from other people reporting what they've heard from canvassers in Western PA.



It could plausibly be Anywhere, Ohio too.

That statement on 538 really didn't strike me as something outside the realm of reality in this area.

leadfoot5

leadfoot5

I'm lost
July 2007

OCT 23, 2008 06:19 AM

Tarqu1n said:
I fear that in these last two weeks there is going to be some sort of national security emergency that either occurs independently or within the machinational sphere of the Republican party that will threaten/s



Maybe. I sure hope not.

But remember what happened in Spain in 2004? Three days before an election, a terrorist attack kills over 200 people, which ends up in the socialists scoring a huge national victory and overthrowing the ruling conservative party. (And we all know Obama is a big scary SOCIALIST, right?)

The electorate appears to have had enough of the Republicans on every other issue. I wonder if national security would be any different. Here's hoping we don't have to find out.

X_Racer_X

X_Racer_X

Philadelphia, PA
July 2008

OCT 23, 2008 06:28 AM

You have Pittsburgh in the western part of the state and Philadelphia in the eastern part of the state...in the middle you have what we affectionately call Pennsyl-tucky. I think McCain will have pretty strong numbers in those parts,although he will lose PA decisively.

Tarqu1n

Tarqu1n

Victoria, BC
February 2005

OCT 23, 2008 07:00 AM

leadfoot5 said:

Tarqu1n said:
I fear that in these last two weeks there is going to be some sort of national security emergency that either occurs independently or within the machinational sphere of the Republican party that will threaten/s



Maybe. I sure hope not.

But remember what happened in Spain in 2004? Three days before an election, a terrorist attack kills over 200 people, which ends up in the socialists scoring a huge national victory and overthrowing the ruling conservative party. (And we all know Obama is a big scary SOCIALIST, right?)

The electorate appears to have had enough of the Republicans on every other issue. I wonder if national security would be any different. Here's hoping we don't have to find out.



Very true....that cheers me, but at this point Bin Laden could give himself up and credit McCain and I wouldn't be surprised.

leadfoot5

leadfoot5

I'm lost
July 2007

OCT 23, 2008 07:01 AM

X_Racer_X said:
You have Pittsburgh in the western part of the state and Philadelphia in the eastern part of the state...in the middle you have what we affectionately call Pennsyl-tucky. I think McCain will have pretty strong numbers in those parts,although he will lose PA decisively.



But what about the internals? McCAIN HAS INTERNALS! Oooh, Smithers, help me, the INTERNALS ARE COMING!!!

smile

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