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scylis

scylis

USA
November 2004

MAY 28, 2008 07:46 PM

Karella_Deville said:

s5 said:
TimTam, I have no power or ability to change gas prices. I just see the writing on the wall. The world's addiction to oil is making things worse and worse with no end in sight. Prices aren't going down anytime soon, either, especially with China's new love affair with the car.

And it just so happens that people are only truly motivated to change their behavior as the price of gas becomes unaffordable. It's going to happen anyway, and with the right policies, the transition doesn't have to be too painful. In fact, it will improve everyone's quality of life.



...except for the poor. whatever



you're actually assuming they have enough money to have a car right now.

in fact, improvements to public transportation would benefit them more than most other groups, as they're most likely already dependent on it for getting around.

Oninotaki

oninotaki

Ypsilanti, MI
March 2003

MAY 28, 2008 07:48 PM

scylis said:

Karella_Deville said:

s5 said:
TimTam, I have no power or ability to change gas prices. I just see the writing on the wall. The world's addiction to oil is making things worse and worse with no end in sight. Prices aren't going down anytime soon, either, especially with China's new love affair with the car.

And it just so happens that people are only truly motivated to change their behavior as the price of gas becomes unaffordable. It's going to happen anyway, and with the right policies, the transition doesn't have to be too painful. In fact, it will improve everyone's quality of life.



...except for the poor. whatever



you're actually assuming they have enough money to have a car right now.

in fact, improvements to public transportation would benefit them more than most other groups, as they're most likely already dependent on it for getting around.



I dont have enough money for a car, the most I can spend at any one time on anything is $500 and thats pushing it. Improvments to public transportation, or at the very least sidewalks would do wonders for me.

IDGAS

IDGAS

Jackson Heights, NY
March 2004

MAY 28, 2008 07:48 PM

Adroitbeing said:
Current worldwide consumption of refined product = 88 million barrels/day
Current worldwide production of refined product = 86 million barrels/day

If these numbers are accurate, and I have no reason to believe they are not - though I will have to research the source if someone presses me; we are destined to continue to see market driven prices.

There is little incentive for any company benefitting from the profits of oil production, refinement, or delivery to accelerate or decelerate the pace of those profits



I have a lot of links to sources in this CE post and this was very helpful BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2007. It is an excel spreadsheet with enough data to make a wonk very very happy.

scylis

scylis

USA
November 2004

MAY 28, 2008 07:55 PM

Oninotaki said:

scylis said:

Karella_Deville said:

s5 said:
TimTam, I have no power or ability to change gas prices. I just see the writing on the wall. The world's addiction to oil is making things worse and worse with no end in sight. Prices aren't going down anytime soon, either, especially with China's new love affair with the car.

And it just so happens that people are only truly motivated to change their behavior as the price of gas becomes unaffordable. It's going to happen anyway, and with the right policies, the transition doesn't have to be too painful. In fact, it will improve everyone's quality of life.



...except for the poor. whatever



you're actually assuming they have enough money to have a car right now.

in fact, improvements to public transportation would benefit them more than most other groups, as they're most likely already dependent on it for getting around.



I dont have enough money for a car, the most I can spend at any one time on anything is $500 and thats pushing it. Improvments to public transportation, or at the very least sidewalks would do wonders for me.



i have a car only due to the fact that one of my roommates got a bit extra on one of her credit-building loans (her rating is phenomenal now), so i pay half of the payment each month. my credit is next to non-existent, so that was not an option on my own. if not for that, i'd be in the same position. also, public transportation up here is horrid compared to most cities.

Cockzombie

Cockzombie

San Diego, CA
July 2006

MAY 28, 2008 07:59 PM

scylis said:

Karella_Deville said:

s5 said:
TimTam, I have no power or ability to change gas prices. I just see the writing on the wall. The world's addiction to oil is making things worse and worse with no end in sight. Prices aren't going down anytime soon, either, especially with China's new love affair with the car.

And it just so happens that people are only truly motivated to change their behavior as the price of gas becomes unaffordable. It's going to happen anyway, and with the right policies, the transition doesn't have to be too painful. In fact, it will improve everyone's quality of life.



...except for the poor. whatever



you're actually assuming they have enough money to have a car right now.

in fact, improvements to public transportation would benefit them more than most other groups, as they're most likely already dependent on it for getting around.



I guess that depends on your definition of poor. I would consider anyone the government helps with heating or food stamps or childcare 'poor'. Some of these people, including myself have cars. I suppose that selling it would be a good idea had we any decent public transpo in this city, but I think s5's idea would just make people like me even poorer (to the point of which you are taking about). I don't see that as being beneficial.

bean

bean

STAFF

Los Angeles, CA

MAY 28, 2008 08:03 PM

Adroitbeing said:
Current worldwide consumption of refined product = 88 million barrels/day
Current worldwide production of refined product = 86 million barrels/day

If these numbers are accurate, and I have no reason to believe they are not - though I will have to research the source if someone presses me; we are destined to continue to see market driven prices.

There is little incentive for any company benefitting from the profits of oil production, refinement, or delivery to accelerate or decelerate the pace of those profits


I'd like to research the source, too, if you can provide one. All I can find at the moment are US numbers, from the EIA's petroleum information page.

Hooraydiation

Hooraydiation

Boston, MA
October 2005

MAY 28, 2008 08:06 PM

Gas stamps for people below a certain income level with special considerations for those cannot utilize public transportation would be nice.

Cockzombie

Cockzombie

San Diego, CA
July 2006

MAY 28, 2008 08:13 PM

Hooraydiation said:
Gas stamps for people below a certain income level with special considerations for those cannot utilize public transportation would be nice.



or even allowing people who fall into that category to use senior services vehicles. We have city senior service vans that could maybe handle the extra load?

I'm really excited about this. It would make the cost of living go wayyyy down for people, and help with our gas problems and our local transportation issues.

cost for a 2/2 in albuquerque: $650 median
cost for a 2/2 in santa fe: $1,100 median

Oninotaki

oninotaki

Ypsilanti, MI
March 2003

MAY 28, 2008 08:19 PM

DhD_No_Pants said:

Sydni said:

s5 said:
I'm hoping gas prices will triple. People are finally starting to drive less and they're doing all that crazy stuff like carpooling and combining a bunch of errands into one trip. SUV sales are practically dead, people are buying bikes, and a whole slew of electric and hybrid cars are heading to the marketplace. Who knows, maybe they'll go really nuts and start demanding things like better public transportation and walkable communities.

The only thing that's been waking people up to the tyranny of oil has been higher gas prices. So, let's hope they go even higher.



my only real concern is for those who live so far from their jobs because they can't afford to live closer.

Otherwise, I totally agree with you.



And people who actually need larger vehicles to make their living. Coming from poor white trash, a lot of my friends and family do manual labor. Construction, welding, tow truck drivers, etc. Hard to fit a load of lumber in a Prius! Not to mention, a lot of people I know can't afford a new vehicle right now.

Not everyone works in an office where they can just hitch a ride with a friend or use public transportation. They are stuck at lower paying jobs with ever rising fuel costs, and it is hurting them. Badly.



I owned and operated an aparment painting business for just shy of two years. I did not have a truck, instead I had a Kia Rio with the back seat torn out. Everday my partner and I would load it up with all of our tools and paint,

2 people(400lbs total)
1 ladder
2 industrial sprayers
2 large paint pans
4 small paint pans
multiple 6"+ polls
assorted brushes/rollers
1 laser printer
5-16 5 gallon buckets of paint @ rough 70lbs to 80lbs each

The car was rated at 35mpg freeway, fully loaded (keeping in mind this was still only a Kia Rio) we still got above 32 mpg freeway. We used to laugh at all the guys in truck cause they where too stupid to understand that they didnt need a truck to haul 1 ladder, 5 buckets of paint, and assorted painting supplies. The amount of money we saved allowed us to be competitive with the people who would bus in a load of Mexicans to do the work for below minimum wage. People do not understand that cars are metal machines that weigh almost a ton, that travel at 60-100 mph without a problem. They have so much power its stupid. Most people who "need" a truck really need a hatch back.

Oh and I highly recommend buying a hatchback over getting a regular car and riping out the back seat, its much safer.

s5

s5

STAFF

San Francisco, CA

MAY 28, 2008 08:20 PM

Karella_Deville said:
...except for the poor. whatever

our farmers market is still working on implementing a plan to accept food stamps, so while us poor people wait for that to go into effect, we get our groceries from a grocery store who gets affordable produce to us (and accepts food stamps). But with rising fuel costs, the cost of our groceries go up, our wages go down, we are still living in the communities without safe bike paths, driving the cars we can afford (since we cant afford to get a hybrid).

I have a small garden that has onions and other perennials, but if I want to get anything else to eat and not get mugged I would have to get into my car and drive about 6 miles to a grocery store. If gas costs triple, I would be unemployed and need to live off the system, so in a way, you, s5 would not only be paying triple for gas, but also more in taxes (presumably) because of all the people like me who would need even more help from the government.

what else do you suggest we do? confused blackeyed



You're assuming that nothing happens between now and when gas prices triple (or double, whichever), and that one day we wake up, and gas has gone up from $4 to $12 overnight. More likely is that prices will go up another 50 cents, and society and policy will adjust slightly, and so on for each step of increase.

It will be a long process, taking many years, and the idea is that we should start now by electing the right people and making new choices in our personal lives, instead of pretending there's going to be some magical day in the future when gas becomes affordable again. It's just never going to happen.

Some of the steps along the way are free or cheap, like carpooling, or using bus systems that already exist but no one uses. Obviously this doesn't work for everyone, and along the way, we'll find new ways of doing things. People can and do adapt to changing circumstances, and the idea that we can't change because it's too hard is a really depressing thought. If that's truly what civilization has become, then gas prices are the least of our worries.

bean

bean

STAFF

Los Angeles, CA

MAY 28, 2008 08:20 PM

Karella_Deville said:
I'm really excited about this. It would make the cost of living go wayyyy down for people, and help with our gas problems and our local transportation issues.

cost for a 2/2 in albuquerque: $650 median
cost for a 2/2 in santa fe: $1,100 median


I'm confused. Either you linked to the wrong thing, or didn't fully explain your post. That looks like an existing rail line. I'm unclear on the connection to cost of living, or the use of the term "would."

IDGAS

IDGAS

Jackson Heights, NY
March 2004

MAY 28, 2008 08:21 PM

bean said:

Adroitbeing said:
Current worldwide consumption of refined product = 88 million barrels/day
Current worldwide production of refined product = 86 million barrels/day

If these numbers are accurate, and I have no reason to believe they are not - though I will have to research the source if someone presses me; we are destined to continue to see market driven prices.

There is little incentive for any company benefitting from the profits of oil production, refinement, or delivery to accelerate or decelerate the pace of those profits


I'd like to research the source, too, if you can provide one. All I can find at the moment are US numbers, from the EIA's petroleum information page.



His numbers are close see BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2007 it has data through 2006.
Total World
consumption 83719 bpd (x 1000)
production 81663 bpd (x 1000)

edit I reversed the numbers twice - sorry

s5

s5

STAFF

San Francisco, CA

MAY 28, 2008 08:22 PM

Hooraydiation said:
Gas stamps for people below a certain income level with special considerations for those cannot utilize public transportation would be nice.



Pretty much everyone who has been talking about carbon taxes has also included the need for income and payroll tax breaks for lower income working class people to offset rising fuel costs. So there's already a pretty wide open policy discussion about that.

scylis

scylis

USA
November 2004

MAY 28, 2008 08:24 PM

Karella_Deville said:

scylis said:

Karella_Deville said:

s5 said:
TimTam, I have no power or ability to change gas prices. I just see the writing on the wall. The world's addiction to oil is making things worse and worse with no end in sight. Prices aren't going down anytime soon, either, especially with China's new love affair with the car.

And it just so happens that people are only truly motivated to change their behavior as the price of gas becomes unaffordable. It's going to happen anyway, and with the right policies, the transition doesn't have to be too painful. In fact, it will improve everyone's quality of life.



...except for the poor. whatever



you're actually assuming they have enough money to have a car right now.

in fact, improvements to public transportation would benefit them more than most other groups, as they're most likely already dependent on it for getting around.



I guess that depends on your definition of poor. I would consider anyone the government helps with heating or food stamps or childcare 'poor'. Some of these people, including myself have cars. I suppose that selling it would be a good idea had we any decent public transpo in this city, but I think s5's idea would just make people like me even poorer (to the point of which you are taking about). I don't see that as being beneficial.



you (and i. and most likely s5, and a good portion of the people who post here) are going to get a whole lot more poor, whether you like it or not. by actively striding towards a point where we force the market and industry to change for the better we're helping us in the long run. we need to focus on finding the next method of powering the planet rather than wringing out every last penny at the pump. money is much better spent trying to come up with a viable means to produce hydrogen, electric-powered cars, or cold fusion and setting up and running efficient public transportation rather than keeping the price/gallon down.

it benefits everybody more.

Cockzombie

Cockzombie

San Diego, CA
July 2006

MAY 28, 2008 08:26 PM

bean said:

Karella_Deville said:
I'm really excited about this. It would make the cost of living go wayyyy down for people, and help with our gas problems and our local transportation issues.

cost for a 2/2 in albuquerque: $650 median
cost for a 2/2 in santa fe: $1,100 median


I'm confused. Either you linked to the wrong thing, or didn't fully explain your post. That looks like an existing rail line. I'm unclear on the connection to cost of living, or the use of the term "would."



sorry- it exists in albuquerque, but it has yet to be completed. So people can go from uptown to downtown ABQ, but it (as of yet) does not go to santa fe. Santa Fe has very little as far as public transportation.

This rail line would help us get back in forth in the city, and also help some of us commute from albuquerque affordably.

Cockzombie

Cockzombie

San Diego, CA
July 2006

MAY 28, 2008 08:30 PM

scylis said:

you (and i. and most likely s5, and a good portion of the people who post here) are going to get a whole lot more poor, whether you like it or not. by actively striding towards a point where we force the market and industry to change for the better we're helping us in the long run. we need to focus on finding the next method of powering the planet rather than wringing out every last penny at the pump. money is much better spent trying to come up with a viable means to produce hydrogen, electric-powered cars, or cold fusion and setting up and running efficient public transportation rather than keeping the price/gallon down.

it benefits everybody more.



but I read earlier in this thread that big oil buys all the patents to this technology, how would we get around this? Or is that not exactly true?
Sorry, just trying to figure out where you guys are coming from

bean

bean

STAFF

Los Angeles, CA

MAY 28, 2008 08:33 PM

s5 said:

Karella_Deville said:
...except for the poor. whatever

our farmers market is still working on implementing a plan to accept food stamps, so while us poor people wait for that to go into effect, we get our groceries from a grocery store who gets affordable produce to us (and accepts food stamps). But with rising fuel costs, the cost of our groceries go up, our wages go down, we are still living in the communities without safe bike paths, driving the cars we can afford (since we cant afford to get a hybrid).

I have a small garden that has onions and other perennials, but if I want to get anything else to eat and not get mugged I would have to get into my car and drive about 6 miles to a grocery store. If gas costs triple, I would be unemployed and need to live off the system, so in a way, you, s5 would not only be paying triple for gas, but also more in taxes (presumably) because of all the people like me who would need even more help from the government.

what else do you suggest we do? confused blackeyed



You're assuming that nothing happens between now and when gas prices triple (or double, whichever), and that one day we wake up, and gas has gone up from $4 to $12 overnight. More likely is that prices will go up another 50 cents, and society and policy will adjust slightly, and so on for each step of increase.

It will be a long process, taking many years, and the idea is that we should start now by electing the right people and making new choices in our personal lives, instead of pretending there's going to be some magical day in the future when gas becomes affordable again. It's just never going to happen.

Some of the steps along the way are free or cheap, like carpooling, or using bus systems that already exist but no one uses. Obviously this doesn't work for everyone, and along the way, we'll find new ways of doing things. People can and do adapt to changing circumstances, and the idea that we can't change because it's too hard is a really depressing thought. If that's truly what civilization has become, then gas prices are the least of our worries.


Not only that, but it seems that people aren't understanding that that will happen, not that it's one possibility.

Domestic oil production has been declining steadily for 20 years, and that decline has been offset by imports. This is not a sustainable position, and without drastic changes to our behavior, oil (and gas) costs will continue to rise. The rate of that rise is inversely proportional to our efforts to modify both our behavior and our dependence on oil as a fuel.

While the cost of oil is distributed across our entire economy, the consumption of oil in the US is mostly in transportation (fuel). This means that, above all else, massive changes to our transportation system will have the biggest impact on our oil consumption as a nation.

bean

bean

STAFF

Los Angeles, CA

MAY 28, 2008 08:37 PM

Karella_Deville said:

scylis said:

you (and i. and most likely s5, and a good portion of the people who post here) are going to get a whole lot more poor, whether you like it or not. by actively striding towards a point where we force the market and industry to change for the better we're helping us in the long run. we need to focus on finding the next method of powering the planet rather than wringing out every last penny at the pump. money is much better spent trying to come up with a viable means to produce hydrogen, electric-powered cars, or cold fusion and setting up and running efficient public transportation rather than keeping the price/gallon down.

it benefits everybody more.



but I read earlier in this thread that big oil buys all the patents to this technology, how would we get around this? Or is that not exactly true?
Sorry, just trying to figure out where you guys are coming from


They buy some patents, but remember that as much as they enjoy massive profits, they know that those profits aren't sustainable, so they're actually actively researching alternative fuels in order to diversify their stake in oil. They're not doing it that fast, though, because it is (currently) profitable for them to keep oil consumption high.

The upside, though, is that a lot of the doom and gloom about oil companies buying all the patents is just conspiracy theory nonsense. See my post following the one about companies buying patents for an example. There is active development of new renewable energy research, and there is ongoing commercialization of existing renewable energy technologies.

There could be a whole lot more research and development if companies doing that R&D got tax breaks for it.

You can keep up with current and future technologies for green transportation here, for one.

IDGAS

IDGAS

Jackson Heights, NY
March 2004

MAY 28, 2008 08:39 PM

Karella_Deville said: but I read earlier in this thread that big oil buys all the patents to this technology, how would we get around this? Or is that not exactly true?
Sorry, just trying to figure out where you guys are coming from



Big oil is in business to make money, if someone found a way to produce energy using a technology with a lower cost than oil/coal/nuclear they would not hide it but market it.

Avoid the trolls, conspiracy nuts and especially the conspiracy nut trolls. smile

Stiles

Stiles

Oakland, CA
November 2002

MAY 28, 2008 08:40 PM

s5 said:
I'm hoping gas prices will triple. People are finally starting to drive less and they're doing all that crazy stuff like carpooling and combining a bunch of errands into one trip. SUV sales are practically dead, people are buying bikes, and a whole slew of electric and hybrid cars are heading to the marketplace. Who knows, maybe they'll go really nuts and start demanding things like better public transportation and walkable communities.

The only thing that's been waking people up to the tyranny of oil has been higher gas prices. So, let's hope they go even higher.



I have a feeling everyone in the northeast states who have seen their heating bill go up 400% in four years would disagree.

bean

bean

STAFF

Los Angeles, CA

MAY 28, 2008 08:46 PM

Speaking of Green Car Congress, I hadn't checked it out in awhile, but their current top story is really, really cool. Large-scale non-food-based ethanol production in the works, with projected costs way below current costs and projected to decrease.

s5

s5

STAFF

San Francisco, CA

MAY 28, 2008 09:01 PM

bean said:
Not only that, but it seems that people aren't understanding that that will happen, not that it's one possibility.



exactly - there's no way that fuel is going to get cheaper, ever. From my perspective, I think it's a good thing, because I believe that we're about to elect some really smart people who will change how our economy operates, partly by moving us away from fossil fuels. And the only way they're going to succeed is if the public is demanding change.

But, other people aren't going to feel as optimistic as I do. They're going to feel like it's fucked and we're doomed, and even suggesting that gas prices are going to go up is the worst thing on earth to consider.

Either way, whether we hope for gas prices to go up or down, it's not under our control. Prices are going to keep going up, and people are going to continue to suffer, until we wise up and actually change how we live, starting from policy at the highest levels of government, all the way down to our individual choices.

punk

punk

Phoenix, AZ
January 2004

MAY 28, 2008 09:38 PM

s5 said:

bean said:
Not only that, but it seems that people aren't understanding that that will happen, not that it's one possibility.



exactly - there's no way that fuel is going to get cheaper, ever.



Back when gas was - gasp - $1.50 a gallon and it started to inch towards $2+, my dad said to me: "I was around when gas was 50 cents a gallon. Once the price goes up, it has never gone down."

...aaaaand he's right!

SupremePizzaMan

SupremePizzaMan

Seattle, WA
September 2003

MAY 28, 2008 09:41 PM

I don't own a car, I've never owned one. In fact, I don't even have a Driver's License.

I ride the bus to work and back, and generally anywhere I want to go. I'm not poor, it's been my choice to not own a car to this point. That being said I'm currently |--| close to purchasing my first car; and It's completely against my best judgment in my future forward thinking. At 26 though, I don't enjoy getting a call from a friend at 10:00pm telling me to come hang out, or to come see them at some out of the way place, and having to say no because it takes 2 hours to get there by bus and foot. Running errands is completely not fun via mass transit. I certainly believe some sort of personal transportation still needs to be in the future, you just can't enjoy life on a bus or subway.

That being said, I don't understand why more people don't take some form of mass transit to work. I walk past traffic on my way to the bus stop, you know, like the beginning of Office Space? I'll say it again, I walk past traffic!!! Maybe new technology is the answer, but certainly what s5 and bean are echoing is going in the right direction before that future is here.

I'm not better than anyone else, I can't pretend to know someones needs, but I have to say I'm a little surprised to see how many people drive their vehicle without anyone else in them. I'm optimistic much like s5 that people will eventually save themselves with forward thinking and adapt to the current situation. I found some statistics that say the average commute is 31 miles round trip each day. A gallon of gas. New buses in Seattle are hybrid electric buses, not including the ones powered by the overhead wires downtown. Heck even the garbage trucks run on biofuel here. Mass transit is becoming more popular all over the country as it should, and it needs to become even more-so in the near future. It can really be as simple as taking mass transit to work. Sorry that commute time is 30 minutes instead of 10, and you have to sit next to people, but I've been doing it for years. It's allowed me to not personally buy gas for 14 years (I filled a lawnmower up a few times in my younger years), as well I've read more books riding the bus than I've read otherwise. Consider it!

My brain is not geared for linear thinking, I hope that all made sense

Edited for weird thought:
I've never pumped gas before.......

bean

bean

STAFF

Los Angeles, CA

MAY 28, 2008 09:49 PM

punk said:

s5 said:

bean said:
Not only that, but it seems that people aren't understanding that that will happen, not that it's one possibility.



exactly - there's no way that fuel is going to get cheaper, ever.



Back when gas was - gasp - $1.50 a gallon and it started to inch towards $2+, my dad said to me: "I was around when gas was 50 cents a gallon. Once the price goes up, it has never gone down."

...aaaaand he's right!


Except that's not true.

Here's a comment I made on the subject back on page 2. I don't feel like rephrasing it, since it's exactly the same thing.

bean said:

DevilsReject said:
I don't ever see Gas being below $3.50 a gallon again. Unfortunately once you breech a price and people are still willing to pay it, the greedy oil companies and oil big-wigs will never let it go back down. It would take major work on the part of the government to get it to where it should be, and i honestly don't think they are capable of it.


History would disagree with you. The price of gasoline was relatively flat throughout the 90s. It went up a few times, and came all the way back down. Gas was cheaper in 1998 than it was in 1994, and it was the same in March of 99 as it was in April of 93. I know that the circumstances were different, but a declaration that gas prices won't drop once they've hit a certain mark is not supported by any evidence.




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