FIDEL ABDICATES

Ah yes.

The king is dead.
Long live the king.

Don't go there!

The pleasure is fleeting, the damage... forever.

Kudos to your amazing insight.

Of course that's the obvious implication, which is why it was mentioned on page one...and two, and three before you posted. So yeah, congratulations on adding absolutely nothing to the conversation.

State newspaper named after the boat the revolutionaries used to sneak back into Cuba from exile in Mexico.

I think you kinda missed the point that sir AcerT was making in that after the fall of the Soviet Union, Cuba was forced as an economic collective to deal with their situation in a creative and unique manner given Cuba's capital weight in the world and the rescources limited within their borders; it has forced Cuba towards developing the basis of a subsistence socialist economic system that is environmentally sustainable, a far cry from the copycat capitalist agricultural technological tendancy of the Soviet Union.
To raise the specter of "Cuba's International Luxury Commodittee dependancy" isnt really relevant and misses the point as all nations are now more then ever dependant on luxury goods that are partially or completely manufactured outside their own borders.
The problem still comes back to the embargo as it is the fact that the U.S's capital weight in the world and the threat of not having access to said financial rescources and markets of the U.S as the percieved threat that keeps a broad range of luxury commoditees from reaching Cuban shores.
Then again what one perceives as a threat may not actually be real....or more succinctly a realizeable economic threat as time goes on.

Indeed economic's play a decisive role in Human society- yet never the less it seems curious that Cubans would come to the U.S to send back U.S money for commodittees they cannot buy from the U.S.....unless of course their relatives can use that money to buy from economic competitors supplying similar or competing commoditees that do not have a foothold in the U.S market like say products from the EU.

Hence your historical breakdown in the impetus for Cubans to come to the U.S also represents the waining ability of the U.S to economically enforce the embargo on Cuba and if indeed their is oil and gas off shore of Cuba, then the economic impetus for cubans to leave will most certainly contract to the degrees in the magnitude that these rescources are developed for the benefit of the Cuban working class, this Cuba is in a much better position then even Chavez to actualize because Cuba has at least a nationalised semi functional planned economic system.

As for Felipe Perez Roque, I do not know enough about him and will further comment on this topic in your previously posted thread now that Castro has officially withdrawn from political power and to help put some bread underneath all that JAM in that thread!

For a little forshadowing I beleive a political revolution is a more pressing need then economic reform....

Would a leper colony be divided on a cure for leprosy?

Communism is just something that looks good in theory, to students. Surely nobody that has actually had to live in a Communist regime would fight to preserve it.

Oh, how we'll miss George Bush and his delightful way of setting up punch lines. Today, on the stepping down of Fidel Castro:
"Eventually, this transition ought to lead to free and fair elections %u2014 and I mean free, and I mean fair %u2014 not these kind of staged elections that the Castro brothers try to foist off as true democracy."
Yeah, who could imagine the sort of twisted brothers who would do such a thing?

Perhaps I articulated my self badly. I ended up writing with emphasis on luxury goods. I meant to go into the goods that aren't truly luxury goods, but have to be imported at a high cost. Pipes, faucets, almost all electronics, washing machines, dryers, bikes, mattresses and many foods. The government coveres the barest necesities in terms of food, but rice, beans, a couple eggs and an ounce of meat a month is not something you can live off of indefinately. The cost of everything else is astronomical. Given a salary of about 16 pesos a day, and the cost of letturce about 7 pesos a head, tomatoes 3-4 pesos a pop, it adds up. My point is really this, while Cuba is far more independant and self-sufficient than it was, it has some really serious shortcomings. A lack of a real industrial manufacturing base for plumbing being one of the most serious problems. How do you fix your broken faucet when the monthly pay is $18 and the cost of the new faucet alone is $16?

But I will agree that Cuba has come a long way.

I'm not sure how this directly relates to my post or entirely what your point is. I think I get the jist, but I don't want to write a long reply to that if I'm way off.

The problem is Cuba's current growth is highly based on very low gas prices. I mean, there are many factors, but a low gas cost has really helped. But I agree, Cuba truly is far more self sufficient than Venezuela.

I agree. Most Cuban's do too. Most Cubans I talked to said they wanted a "revolution within the revolution". No guns, just political reform to deal with all the bureaucracy.

The new generation is really fired up about it too. The next few years will be interesting to say the least.

...

Seriously? I feel like he had a point, actually. I just assumed you meant something past that which would become clear upon later reflection, but in your response it seems that isn't the case. The point you seemed to be making above was, in fact, voiced a few times in this thread, so...

OT: Clearly this is a case of media cozying up to a timely (yet probably rather empty) change in a head of state. I haven't done any scientific research, but it seems that the atmosphere among reserved analysts is that we should wait and see on this one. I feel we really need to just watch Raul really closely in the near and medium-near future. But on the other hand, I think there are plenty of sources of and outlets for pro-Cuba/anti-Castro people to try to exert some influence on the inertia of Castro's legacy. It could make a difference if, as Fearless Decider so valiantly puts it, the battle is won for "hearts and minds."

That's just wrong, historically. Many people, including non-elites, have fought to preserve Communist regimes.

I have a certain amount of admiration for Fidel Castro for having the statemanship to keep Cuba independant throughout the Cold War despite being right next door to the USA.

What's more true communism has never been achieved.

Independant of the US, largely. Independant in general? No. Fidel himself admitted he let Cuba become overly dependant on Soviet aid instead of focusing on building a good manufacturing base on the island.

Not me.

And wasn't he dependent on the U.S.S.R. during the cold war?

Color me shocked.

Out of necessity, yes.

For some reason people think Raul is an improvement, I'm not really sure why they think that. Maybe he lost his teeth in his old age, but he was kind of the wolf of the group.

I understand that many of these goods for a modern lifestyle are not really considered a luxury, but rather neccessary to raise the quality of life in some respect or another, in this respect I had taken a bit to much of a text book definition of luxury good myself.

On top of that I am not arguing that these goods are affordeable to the average person in Cuba, in fact I am even willing to concede that lifting the emgargo itself would only reduce the cost of goods as much as reducing the cost in transportation of (certain) goods that are still manufactured or assembled locally in the U.S.
Given what you assert to the average cuban wage, this reduction would most likely not be substantial enough either.

This is the main problem because this economic position is not the "fault" of the Cuban socialist system or even its one party government, as a majority of the worlds population face the same goods to wage scenario as the average Cuban (although a good percentage of the worlds majority do not even have the option of barely utilizing state infrastructure for plumbing, sewage, water treatment let alone a universal healthcare system); this is a failure of the Capitalist system and the Capitalist system alone.
the main difference is replace a semi-parasitic beurocracy (with accountability problems) with an increasingly entirely parasitic wealthy layer that has no accountability to the general populace except through the laws of capitalism itself.

This is why in political revolutionary terms , removing the communist party will not help the average Cuban, a progressive political revolution will increase Cuban workers collective control over the means of production and implement the political means to do just that.

Back to your 1st question, you had highlighted the economic incentive that determines Emmigration from Cuba with historical evolution in political perspectives of peoples whose family still resides in cuba and are actually sending money back, I have put out the point that supposedly the U.S's embargo against cuba should not have seen such an evolution in social economic relations and when combined with my second paragraph I am predicting a substantial decrease in Emmigration from cuba for economic reasons, I would even postulate that some of the latter layer may even start to return depending on the length of the economic reccession in the U.S. and the paltry reforms in the works in the event that the Dems take the election (ergo the most likely political tradjectory of american politics in the near future other then the erosion of democracy itself),especially if their is newly discovered substantial oil and gas play in Cuban waters.

Which then brings us to your 2nd paragraph, I am a bit surprised that you do not see the obvious benefits in the economics of having a source of oil and gas within Cubas national boundaries even with extreme subsidizing gasoline prices rather then previously importing at current international costs and then having to subsidize the cost with the national wealth , given the long term trend of oil prices this will free up national wealth previously spent on importing and subsidising as well as increase Cuba's overall wealth and thus international purchasing power.

This is not even including the near term economic benefits of developing these oil rescources (nor the irony that the because fo the U.S embargo, most Transnational Oil companies willl not be able to bid to develop these rescources, save of course PetroChina or Gazprom...) nor including retaining the oil for doctors program with Venzuela if not even increasing the intensity of this program or developing additional services for commoditee reciprocation ect, ect

I hope this interesting spreads around the globe....

I didn't mean that Castro kept Cuba politically non-aligned. I meant that, for someone leading such a tiny country, Castro showed great statesmanship by managing to avoid being assassinated by CIA agents and by avoiding having his government replaced by a US backed counter-revolution. Think about Chile in 1973 or think of the activities of the Contras in Nicaragua. Back then the US politicians had a morbid fear of any countries in their 'back yard' going communist. When I used the word "independant" I meant it quite literally as in "managing to avoid being invaded and conquered".