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Rafi

Rafi

Santa Monica, CA
January 2003

FEB 09, 2008 03:28 PM

Democrats
Feb. 9: Washington (caucus), Nebraska (caucus), Louisiana, Virgin Islands
Feb. 10: Maine (caucus)

Republicans
Feb 9: Kansas (caucus), Washington (caucus & primary), Louisiana

Predictions, thoughts, results?

Even though the Huckster took Kansas, we all know McCain has things virtually wrapped up. Looking to the more interesting side of aisle. . .

Though Obama's camp has run a highly effective campaign throughout, one area in which they've consistently been atrocious is in allowing the Clintons, and subsequently the media, to set expectation levels. They have not yet gotten the hang of the "lowering expectations" game. Even today, they've let the narrative become that all today's contests (and perhaps all of February's) are Obama's to lose.

In reality, even though Obama is generally better positioned here than the Super Tuesday states, in the end he is the challenger and facing a significant Clinton DLC machine in each of them, and does face an uphill battle. I do think Obama has a good chance to take today's states, but if he does, Hillary's people have dictated that because this was expected, it's insignificant (which in itself makes no sense, as a run of the table should demonstrate Obama's vastly wider appeal - you couldn't pick three states out of a hat and come up with more disparate demographics than Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington), and if he doesn't, then it's somehow a monstrous coup for her.

Early caucus reports look good for Obama in NE and WA. Conversely, Louisiana some are reporting might look like an upset for Clinton, due to very low turnout and unknown changes in demographics after Katrina. Maine tomorrow is a reprieve for Clinton, as the population fits her model vastly better, but if Obama does win all three states today, that plus the fact that it's a caucus could allow an all-O weekend going into the Potomac Primaries.

Subrosa

Subrosa

San Francisco, CA
July 2004

FEB 09, 2008 03:29 PM

Do we know what time the caucuses and primary voting is closing today?

_kungfoo_

_kungfoo_

Los Angeles, CA
April 2005

FEB 09, 2008 03:30 PM

7:15 Central Time is when the Nebraska results will be released, according to the local media.

Coyotemike

Coyotemike

USA
May 2006

FEB 09, 2008 03:30 PM

Prediction: Nebraska will go mainly for Obama. Washington will be closely split, but in Obama's favor. Don't know on the others. End of the weekend, I am betting Obama will have a very slight lead.

_kungfoo_

_kungfoo_

Los Angeles, CA
April 2005

FEB 09, 2008 03:45 PM

My relatives in Washington said they were voting for Obama.

ckdexterhaven

ckdexterhaven

USA
December 2005

FEB 09, 2008 03:49 PM

I believe Clinton has a lock on the Virgin Islands.

Subrosa

Subrosa

San Francisco, CA
July 2004

FEB 09, 2008 03:50 PM

ckdexterhaven said:
I believe Clinton has a lock on the Virgin Islands.



It's not surprising since she did so well in American Samoa.

Subrosa

Subrosa

San Francisco, CA
July 2004

FEB 09, 2008 04:33 PM

Obama appears to be kicking ass in Washington. Non-scientifically, of course.

kthxbi

kthxbi

Gulf Breeze, FL
November 2006

FEB 09, 2008 04:54 PM

LA has been an information vacuum; I'm hearing nothing from there even on the Obama website.

Rafi

Rafi

Santa Monica, CA
January 2003

FEB 09, 2008 05:28 PM

Obama projected winner in NE, far out ahead in Washington.

AngelDevoid

AngelDevoid

USA
January 2008

FEB 09, 2008 05:31 PM

I am not sure what to make of Louisiana with the supposed low turnout. It is a very weird state. But I think Obama will take Nebraska and Washington easily. I think he will squeak by in the Virgin Islands and I think Hillary will win Maine.

Coyotemike

Coyotemike

USA
May 2006

FEB 09, 2008 05:32 PM

Rafi said:
Obama projected winner in NE, far out ahead in Washington.



He got about 70% of the Nebraska votes . . . I'd call that a win.

Subrosa

Subrosa

San Francisco, CA
July 2004

FEB 09, 2008 05:54 PM

Clinton is really not a great speaker. She's better than McCain in that respect, but she still comes off so forced.

ckdexterhaven

ckdexterhaven

USA
December 2005

FEB 09, 2008 05:56 PM

Subrosa said:
Clinton is really not a great speaker. She's better than McCain in that respect, but she still comes off so forced.


It's like she's reading from a report. Very little emotion or emphasis. I can't wait for her speech at the convention. I'm sure it'll be a barn burner.

_margot_

_margot_

Los Angeles, CA
December 2007

FEB 09, 2008 05:57 PM

ckdexterhaven said:

Subrosa said:
Clinton is really not a great speaker. She's better than McCain in that respect, but she still comes off so forced.


It's like she's reading from a report. Very little emotion or emphasis.



It makes me really uncomfortable.

FearTheReaper

FearTheReaper

NEWSWIRE

I'm lost

FEB 09, 2008 05:59 PM

LA Times calls Washington and Nebraska for Obama.

ckdexterhaven

ckdexterhaven

USA
December 2005

FEB 09, 2008 06:01 PM

_Margot_ said:

ckdexterhaven said:

Subrosa said:
Clinton is really not a great speaker. She's better than McCain in that respect, but she still comes off so forced.


It's like she's reading from a report. Very little emotion or emphasis.



It makes me really uncomfortable.


It's like Chinese water torture. Imagine having to listen to this for 4+ years. All of those State of the Unions. Oy.

FearTheReaper

FearTheReaper

NEWSWIRE

I'm lost

FEB 09, 2008 06:05 PM

ckdexterhaven said:

_Margot_ said:

ckdexterhaven said:

Subrosa said:
Clinton is really not a great speaker. She's better than McCain in that respect, but she still comes off so forced.


It's like she's reading from a report. Very little emotion or emphasis.



It makes me really uncomfortable.


It's like Chinese water torture. Imagine having to listen to this for 4+ years. All of those State of the Unions. Oy.



Why would you have to listen to her, if McCain is president? I don't understand.

DevilsReject

DevilsReject

Cleveland, OH
February 2007

FEB 09, 2008 06:06 PM

Subrosa

Subrosa

San Francisco, CA
July 2004

FEB 09, 2008 06:09 PM

CNN's exit polls are saying Obama's ahead in Louisiana.

ckdexterhaven

ckdexterhaven

USA
December 2005

FEB 09, 2008 06:09 PM

FearTheReaper said:

ckdexterhaven said:

_Margot_ said:

ckdexterhaven said:

Subrosa said:
Clinton is really not a great speaker. She's better than McCain in that respect, but she still comes off so forced.


It's like she's reading from a report. Very little emotion or emphasis.



It makes me really uncomfortable.


It's like Chinese water torture. Imagine having to listen to this for 4+ years. All of those State of the Unions. Oy.



Why would you have to listen to her, if McCain is president? I don't understand.


heh, good point.

wildswan

wildswan

I'm lost
June 2006

FEB 09, 2008 06:10 PM

FearTheReaper said:

ckdexterhaven said:

_Margot_ said:

ckdexterhaven said:

Subrosa said:
Clinton is really not a great speaker. She's better than McCain in that respect, but she still comes off so forced.


It's like she's reading from a report. Very little emotion or emphasis.



It makes me really uncomfortable.


It's like Chinese water torture. Imagine having to listen to this for 4+ years. All of those State of the Unions. Oy.



Why would you have to listen to her, if McCain is president? I don't understand.





Sooooo presidential.

Subrosa

Subrosa

San Francisco, CA
July 2004

FEB 09, 2008 06:13 PM

I find it really insulting that CNN has not ONCE mentioned that Ron Paul is "out" of the race. They don't respect the ReLOVEution.

DevilsReject

DevilsReject

Cleveland, OH
February 2007

FEB 09, 2008 06:20 PM

Subrosa said:
I find it really insulting that CNN has not ONCE mentioned that Ron Paul is "out" of the race. They don't respect the ReLOVEution.



courtesy of MrCrisp:

ckdexterhaven

ckdexterhaven

USA
December 2005

FEB 09, 2008 06:34 PM

Looks like a 7-8 point win in Louisiana for Obama, if the exit polls are accurate.

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